Wall Street and the bond market see fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 from the Fed
Look out for more volatility in the bond market. BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and TCW Group have all warned that the bumpy ride is likely far from over. But also expect that the big overall trend for 2024 of rising bond prices and falling yields on hopes for aggressive...
Big downward revision in jobs locks in September interest rate cut by the Fed, puts November cut in play
Monthly employment reports overstated the number of job created by the U.S. economy by 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March 2024, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday, August 21. That revision, part of the annual process that reconciles job reports...
CPI inflation report this week is one last barrier to September interest rate cut
Expect a final inflation test this week before the Federal Reserve meets on September 18. Unless there’s a huge surprise in the Wednesday, August 14, CPI report, the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time at that meeting. The Federal Reserve Bank of...
So much for that job market slowdown in May
Employers added 272,000 jobs in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That number was well above the 185,000n projected by economists and even higher above the 175,000 in the April report. The financial markets were disappointed with the news...
The Fed walks a very, very fine line on inflation and interest rate cuts
On Wednesday, May 1, the Federal Reserve decided NOT to cut interest rates at its May 1 meeting. That was the decision expected by the financial markets. And Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell tried his best to keep traders from speculating that the Fed would...Producer price index continues bond market freak out
So why was this so important today? So important that the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose another 3 basis points to 4.58%. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2% in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand...
About those inflation worries yesterday? Today’s ISM services report says “Never mind.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite index of services fell 1.2 points to 51.4 a four-year low. The drop in the report released today, April 3, was the second month in a row. The services report came a day after the manufacturing sector report showed costs...
No Fed drama on Wednesday but still the chance for a market-moving disappointment
There’s plenty of room for disappointment in Wednesday’s Dot Plot projections from the Federal Reserve. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were still expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three or more times in 2024 with the first cut coming in June. (To...
Why next week’s Dot Plot from the Fed is more important than ever after a hot inflation report
There’s not much question of what the Federal Reserve will do at its March 20 meeting. The odds–99% on the CME Fed Watch Tool–are that the Fed will do nothing and leave interest rates at the current 5.25%-5.50% benchmark. But that day the Fed will also...
Inflation, especially services inflation, looks sticky: PCE inflation up a fast 0.4% month to month in January
The headline, all-items Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at a 2.4% year over year rate in January. That was in line with what economists had forecast and down from the 2.6% annual rate in...
Big deal inflation report on Thursday could be bad news for stocks
On Thursday the financial markets get a new monthly PCE inflation report. The PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. And Thursday’s report on January inflation could be bad news for the financial markets, ‌...
I won’t worry too much about stocks until investors stop buying on the dip
Remember all that fear talk on Tuesday after CPI headline inflation came in at a 3.1% annual rate in January versus the projected 2.9%? Well, that lasted all of a day. Stocks closed up yesterday, February 14 (Happy Valentine’s Day), and again today, February 15. The...
Powell tries to temper Wall Street belief in rapid interest rate cuts but no one is listening
It wasn’t the most forceful pushback it’s true, but the financial markets paid attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s attempt to say interest rate cuts aren’t just around the corner for about two minutes. And then the rally based on...
April CPI inflation report doesn’t settle anything about Fed rates or rate cuts
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
“Smart” money begins to question the speed of Fed interest rate cuts
There’s always the question of exactly how smart the smart money is, but I find these moves from big Wall Street names interesting as I look for any signs of cracks in the current consensus looking for a quick pivot to interest rate cuts from the Federal...
Why “When will the recession arrive? isn’t the most important question right now
If the recession isn’t here already, it’s only because of a technicality. In the first-quarter U.S. GDP contracted at a 1.6% annualized rate. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker forwards that in the second-quarter GDP will contract at a 2.1%...
Today’s stock market consensus: Recession soon, Fed rate cuts accelerated
Stocks sold off heavily this morning with the Standard & Poor’s down 2% and the NASDAQ Composite off 1.9%. They have rallied in the afternoon so that the S&P 500 is up 0.16% % and the NASDAQ is up 1.75% at the close. What we’re seeing is the...
It’s a war of two narratives–today “recession” narrative replaces “rate cut” narrative and stocks fall heavily
Yesterday, the stock market was up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 gaining 1.46% on the day and the NASDAQ Composite up 2.49%. Listening to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement after the June 15 meeting of its Open Market Committee, Wall Street chose...
Jim’s Extra!! Next big date in the coronavirus selloff? March 18
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
The market is dangerously dependent on the Powell Put from the Fed
Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as...
Itau Unibanco gains on interest rate cut but advance in Brazilian stocks is muted by arrest of another big-fish politico
Yesterday the Banco Central do Brasil reduced Brazil’s benchmark Selic interest rate for the first time in four years. The cut, 25 basis points to 14%, was less than the 50 basis points the market was hoping for. But the dream is that it will be just the first...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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