November 12, 2024 @ 12:19 pm | Breaking News |
Look out for more volatility in the bond market. BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and TCW Group have all warned that the bumpy ride is likely far from over. But also expect that the big overall trend for 2024 of rising bond prices and falling yields on hopes for aggressive...
August 21, 2024 @ 8:20 pm | Breaking News |
Monthly employment reports overstated the number of job created by the U.S. economy by 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March 2024, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday, August 21. That revision, part of the annual process that reconciles job reports...
August 12, 2024 @ 8:41 am | Breaking News |
Expect a final inflation test this week before the Federal Reserve meets on September 18. Unless there’s a huge surprise in the Wednesday, August 14, CPI report, the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time at that meeting. The Federal Reserve Bank of...
June 7, 2024 @ 4:54 pm | Breaking News |
Employers added 272,000 jobs in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That number was well above the 185,000n projected by economists and even higher above the 175,000 in the April report. The financial markets were disappointed with the news...
May 2, 2024 @ 5:09 pm | Breaking News |
On Wednesday, May 1, the Federal Reserve decided NOT to cut interest rates at its May 1 meeting. That was the decision expected by the financial markets. And Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell tried his best to keep traders from speculating that the Fed would...
April 11, 2024 @ 8:12 pm | Breaking News |
So why was this so important today? So important that the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose another 3 basis points to 4.58%. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2% in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand...
April 3, 2024 @ 5:45 pm | Breaking News |
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite index of services fell 1.2 points to 51.4 a four-year low. The drop in the report released today, April 3, was the second month in a row. The services report came a day after the manufacturing sector report showed costs...
March 17, 2024 @ 8:15 pm | Breaking News |
There’s plenty of room for disappointment in Wednesday’s Dot Plot projections from the Federal Reserve. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were still expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three or more times in 2024 with the first cut coming in June. (To...
March 13, 2024 @ 6:23 pm | Breaking News |
There’s not much question of what the Federal Reserve will do at its March 20 meeting. The odds–99% on the CME Fed Watch Tool–are that the Fed will do nothing and leave interest rates at the current 5.25%-5.50% benchmark. But that day the Fed will also...
February 29, 2024 @ 8:02 pm | Breaking News |
The headline, all-items Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at a 2.4% year over year rate in January. That was in line with what economists had forecast and down from the 2.6% annual rate in...
February 26, 2024 @ 5:26 pm | Breaking News |
On Thursday the financial markets get a new monthly PCE inflation report. The PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. And Thursday’s report on January inflation could be bad news for the financial markets, ‌...
February 15, 2024 @ 5:10 pm | Breaking News |
Remember all that fear talk on Tuesday after CPI headline inflation came in at a 3.1% annual rate in January versus the projected 2.9%? Well, that lasted all of a day. Stocks closed up yesterday, February 14 (Happy Valentine’s Day), and again today, February 15. The...
December 1, 2023 @ 4:27 pm | Breaking News |
It wasn’t the most forceful pushback it’s true, but the financial markets paid attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s attempt to say interest rate cuts aren’t just around the corner for about two minutes. And then the rally based on...
May 10, 2023 @ 11:01 pm | Breaking News |
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
May 9, 2023 @ 10:50 pm | Breaking News |
There’s always the question of exactly how smart the smart money is, but I find these moves from big Wall Street names interesting as I look for any signs of cracks in the current consensus looking for a quick pivot to interest rate cuts from the Federal...
July 7, 2022 @ 10:28 pm | Breaking News |
If the recession isn’t here already, it’s only because of a technicality. In the first-quarter U.S. GDP contracted at a 1.6% annualized rate. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker forwards that in the second-quarter GDP will contract at a 2.1%...
July 5, 2022 @ 10:46 pm | Breaking News |
Stocks sold off heavily this morning with the Standard & Poor’s down 2% and the NASDAQ Composite off 1.9%. They have rallied in the afternoon so that the S&P 500 is up 0.16% % and the NASDAQ is up 1.75% at the close. What we’re seeing is the...
June 16, 2022 @ 4:32 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, UNG, WEAT |
Yesterday, the stock market was up with the Standard & Poor’s 500 gaining 1.46% on the day and the NASDAQ Composite up 2.49%. Listening to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement after the June 15 meeting of its Open Market Committee, Wall Street chose...
February 27, 2020 @ 7:39 pm | Buy Hold Sell |
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
May 15, 2019 @ 7:21 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as...
October 20, 2016 @ 7:53 pm | ITUB, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update |
Yesterday the Banco Central do Brasil reduced Brazil’s benchmark Selic interest rate for the first time in four years. The cut, 25 basis points to 14%, was less than the 50 basis points the market was hoping for. But the dream is that it will be just the first...