Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, seems to signal continued gradual interest rate increases for rest of 2018
As expected by the financial markets, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting of the Open Market Committee. As expected the Fed didn’t really clarify its stance on inflation and interest rate increases, acknowledging that...
GDP growth ticks lower but wage gains pick up speed: Market takes possibility of four interest increases from Fed in 2018 more seriously
U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced before the financial markets opened for trading this morning in New York. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected growth of 2.1%. In the fourth quarter...
So how is the economy (remember the economy?) anyway?
Let’s take a look at the economy before this week gets sucked into the black hole of tariffs and trade wars. As you’ll remember when last we left the U.S. economy–on Friday morning–it had just reported a disappointing addition to 103,000 net...
Back to normal today? And a reminder of what normal is
With all available officials on deck today in Beijing and Washington to talk down fears of a trade war and to talk up prospects for trade talks, the U.S. financial markets have returned to “normal.” And what is “normal” right now? A 0.47% gain...
U.S. stocks rally on good economic news and end of the quarter window dressing
U.S. stocks are up as of 1:30 p.m. today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is ahead 0.95% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is up 1.08%. Two reasons for this, I think, and the second is more important today. First, we had a raft of positive economic...
Retail sales fall in February raising possibility that fourth quarter GDP growth was lower than initially reported
U.S. retail sales fell for a third straight month in February–down 0.1%. The Commerce Department revised January sales higher than the initially reported 0.3% decline. But that still left January sales down 0.1%. That means that February marks a third...
CPI inflation comes in on the mark–no surprises ahead of March 21 Fed meeting
After a worrying 0.5% jump in January, headline inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index increased by just 0.2% in February. That was right on the 0.2% mark expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and...
Treasury market survives this week’s first test
The U.S. Treasury sold $28 billion of three-year Treasury notes and $21 billion of 10-year notes today–and the price of the 10-year note actually climbed, taking the yield down to 2.87%, three basis points lower than Friday’s 2.90% yield. This was a good...
Fed Beige Book inflation take raises odds for March 21 interest rate increase
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic report, based on anecdotal information collected by the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, shows that a tight U.S. labor market is generating wage increases in most of the country and is leading to “moderate...
Fed chair testifies: So much for Goldilocks
For a moment this morning–before the actual testimony by new Fed chair Jerome Powell had ended but after Wall Street had read his prepared remarks–stocks moved ahead on Wall Street’s favorite story, Goldilocks. Powell seemed to be saying that...
An inflation test for the new guy at the Fed
Ahead of congressional testimony tomorrow by new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Wall Street is buzzing with speculation that the Powell Fed will be willing let inflation run higher than its current target of 2%. Maybe as high as 2.5%. Some of this is clearly...
This is as good as it gets, says Goldman Sachs: Why that’s important to you in thinking about the next leg in this stock market
On Thursday February 22, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients that the economic macro data as likely to be “as good as it gets.” This isn’t, in my opinion, a call for an immediate plunge in the markets. But with U.S. stocks trading near all time...
10-year Treasury yield back to 2.87% as market decides wage inflation isn’t likely to push the Fed to three rate increases in 2018
Traders and investors decided today that the Federal Reserve’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress is wrong and that Wall Street’s own seers are right about wage-driven inflation. The Fed’s report, delivered to Congress today, makes it...
Federal Reserve minutes show bank upping estimates of growth in 2018–and projecting need for more interest rate increases
Today’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January 30-31 meeting show the central bank estimating economic growth at 2.5% for 2018 and noting that the outlook for stronger economic growth raised the likelihood for continued, gradual interest...
More evidence today that inflation is creeping higher
No index here with the headline clout of yesterday’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) but the message from three indexes today reinforces the story in yesterday’s CPI data: inflation pressures are increasing. The Empire State Manufacturing prices-paid index...
Inflation continues to creep higher in today’s CPI report; Treasury yields rise again
Headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation climbed 0.5% in January, the Labor Department announced today. That was above the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% increase.) Core CPI,...
A constructive day but the short-term key remains CPI inflation on Wednesday
The Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both finished in the green today, up 1.39% and 1.70%, respectively, after having held off a bout of selling around 3:46 p.m. New York time. Volatility also made progress on returning to normal....
Economy cooking along for now but what’s with the continued drop in productivity?
Positive economic data today–for the short term. But some troubling longer term trends continue. Â Initial claims for unemployment fell more than expected to 230,000 for the week ended January 27 versus expectations for 238,000 initial claims among economists...
Fed signals “maybe”on four interest rate hikes in 2018 but stocks stabilize anyway after yesterday’s drop
As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting of the Open Market Committee. But in its post-meeting statement, the last in the chair for Janet Yellen, the central bank added language that points toward a slightly more...
Two-year Treasury yield back to 2%, rate not seen since global financial crisis
Some mornings I have to dig for a lead new story. Other days I’ve got candidates crawling out of the woodwork like roaches in a dirty kitchen when the lights are off. Today I’ve got lots and lots of choices. I’m gong to begin with the bond market...
Federal Reserve minutes from December released today were last squawk from the inflation doves
If you try to interpret the minutes released today from the Federal Reserve’s December 12-13 meeting without factoring in the departure of key players at the central bank, I think you’ll get the meaning of that meeting exactly wrong. On the surface, the...
First sign of dissent from the consensus view of “Two and done” for interest rates in 2018?
Goldman Sachs released its seven top trade themes for 2018 yesterday, November 17. Investors and traders always receive Goldman’s trading ideas with a high degree of skepticism, knowing that the bank’s traders are perfectly comfortable trading against the...
Slightly lower than expected inflation reported this morning hasn’t (so far) dented expectations for December 13 Fed interest rate increase
For August the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, showed an increase in core inflation of just 0.1%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected an increase of 0.2% for the month. Year over...
All eyes on the Fed’s Dot Plot after Wednesday’s meeting
The Dot Plot is a feature of every quarterly meeting of the Federal Reserve. It tracks changes in the consensus (and range) of opinion at the Fed on core macro economic issues such as inflation and interest rates. And, most importantly, it tracks changes in opinion at...
Odds of a Fed interest rate increase move up–for December
Yesterday’s report of a slight uptick in inflation has pushed odds higher for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The report, however, had no effect on odds in the Fed Funds Futures market for an increase at the Fed’s September 20...
Inflation holds steady at annual 1.7% rate
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July from June. CPI headline inflation is now running at a 1.7% annual rate, below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% inflation. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in July and is also...
Inflation at the wholesale level edges up slightly
A day after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen boosted markets with her worries about slow inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released numbers on inflation at the producer level–otherwise known as wholesale inflation–that showed inflation is weak...
Yellen doesn’t say much but bond market likes what it thinks it heard
It’s not much to hang a rally on, but the Treasury and stock markets moved up after Fed chair Janet Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee today that “the federal funds rate may not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy...
Today’s positive economic data help stabilize stocks
Lots of economic data this morning. None fall into the earthshaking category. But the general picture is positive. And that has helped stabilize stocks in New York. Â Economic Summary: Personal Income outpaces spending in May, Chicago PMI well above expectations On the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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