On second thought, financial markets decide they really didn’t like yesterday’s news from the Federal Reserve
After not moving very much yesterday on the actual news from the Federal Reserve-the Standard & Poor’s 500 finished up 0.29% and the NASDSQ Composite closed higher by 0.40%, today, March 18, markets decided they really didn’t like the Fed’s...
The Fed stands pat but I see interest rate increase “slippage”
At today’s (March 17) meeting of its Open Market Committee the Federal Reserve held its target interest rate at 0% to 0.25% and continued its commitment to buying $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets, as expected. But the central...
Can the Fed win on Wednesday against market sentiment?
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve will update its projections for GDP growth, inflation, and the timing of any interest rate increase. In December, Fed officials, on the famous (or infamous) dot plot indicated that that central bank officials expected to hold benchmark...
I almost forgot…the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday
With everything going on, it’s easy to forget about the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting body, the Open Market Committee, on Wednesday. Which would be a mistake because, in my opinion, nothing is more important than interest...
Inflation? What inflation?
Headline inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, climbed 0.4% month over month in February the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That puts the year over year increase in headline inflation at 1.7%. (The big increase in the month was in gasoline...
Selling First Majestic Silver on Friday on Reddit rally
Shares of First Majestic Silver (AG) climbed 21.38% Thursday, January 28, as silver futures climbed on a post on Reddit suggesting profiting from a short squeeze on silver. “Any short squeeze in silver paper shorts would be EPIC,” a post on Reddit’s...
Inflation worries? You’ve got to be kidding but bond market starts to price in higher interest rates
The stock market is in the midst of euphoria at the prospect that unified Democratic control of the White House and Congress will mean more fiscal stimulus–those $2,000 checks for a start–increased aid to cities, and increased spending (maybe) on...
Powell announces anticipated shift in policy framework at the Fed yesterday: 0% for longer
As anticipated in Wednesday’s rally–the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.73%–Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday announced that going forward the Fed would let inflation rise to above its...
Officially, U.S. government debt passes total U.S. GDP
In January, the Congressional Budget Office forecast that total U.S. government debt would hit 100% of GDP around 2030. At that point U.S. debt stood at about $17 trillion or roughly 80% of GDP. So much for that forecast. As of the end of June, U.S. government debt...
Jim’s Extra!! Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
Inflation continues to fall; deflation a possibility
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said annualized inflation across the group of 37 advanced economies slowed to 1.7% in March from 2.3% in February. That’s the biggest deceleration since the 2008 global financial crisis. Energy prices...
Are we headed into an era of longterm deflation? Will the Fed say it’s worried about deflation after tomorrow’s meeting?
As long as I can remember (which is only back about 40 years when it comes to the economy) the worry has been inflation. From the stagflation of the late 1970s, to Paul Volcker’s brutal but successful assault on inflation in the early 1980s, to the seemingly...
GDP up at 2.1% rate in 4th quarter but weakness emerges (or continues) in the numbers
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That matches the growth rate for the third quarter and is slightly above the 2% growth predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Full-year GDP growth finished at 2.3% in 2019, the lowest of...
Gold in ETFs nears record; what’s next for the yellow metal?
Gold held by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) hit the highest level in seven years on Tuesday as investors and traders piled into the traditional hedge against uncertainty and stock market volatility. Worldwide gold holdings in ETFs rose to 2,561.2 tons as of Tuesday, the...
There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets
Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn’t mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank’s December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135...
Inflation isn’t exactly dead
Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning...
August numbers say U.S. consumer is in decent shape; business investment still lags
Consumer spending on goods and services, which accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product, increased by just 0.1% in August from July, the smallest gain in six months, according to the Commerce Department today. Personal income was up 0.4% in August....
Is that inflation we see?
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, picked up in May by 0.2% from April. That took the annual inflation rate to 1.6%. That was just above the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and...
More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes
Put today’s numbers on the economy together with those in Friday’s first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending...
GDP growth surprises at 3.2% in first quarter; economists question sustainability
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% real rate in the first quarter. That’s substantially stronger than the 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter and way above projections for 1.9% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Inflation remained very subdued with the...
Core CPI inflation up 2.2% year over year
For January, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was unchanged, thanks to falling oil prices-the energy component of the index was down 3.1% for the month. The Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices and is closer to the PCE inflation...
Another sign of coming inflation to worry the Federal Reserve
The 3.1% year over year growth in average hourly wages reported for October is, by itself, enough to convince the Federal Reserve that an increase in inflation, long awaited with concern, is visible on the horizon. Today’s jump in the Producer Price Index (PPI)...
What’s the opposite of a “Goldilocks” market?
A Big Bad Wolf market? A Sauron market? An Evil Stepmother market? The reaction to this morning’s inflation report suggests me might need a name for this kind of market. The worry, my worry, going into today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report...
Tomorrow’s inflation numbers are important after today’s rout
At 3:30 p.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a big 2.39% or 632 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was lower by 2.55%. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 3.16%. (The S&P 500 closed down 3.29%. The Dow was lower by 832 points or...
Fed raises interest rates, locks in December increase, signals 3 moves in 2019
No surprise on a September interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve today–but some very aggressive signals on policy into 2019. The 25 basis point increase today raised the Fed Funds rate to a target of 2% to 2.25%. The economy remains solid; job growth...
Good August jobs number cements Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September (and probably December)
The U.S. economy added a net 201,000 jobs in August. That was above the projection of 187,000 from economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Government statisticians revised the July job gains to 170,000 from 153,000. The official unemployment rate remained at 3.9%. So why...
Core consumer inflation climbs at a 2.3% annual rate in July numbers
Granted the Federal Reserve watches the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index to measure inflation, but the big jump in the July Consumer Price Index should remove the last doubts (if any remain) about a September interest rate increase from the Fed. The headline...
The good news in the bad news of today’s jobs numbers
You ‘ve got to remember that at this point in the Federal Reserve cycle good is bad and bad is good. So, by itself the good news in the June jobs report this morning would be counted as bad news. The economy added 213,000 jobs in June, well above the 195,000...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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