Stocks decide inflation is in retreat and move higher
The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.5% in July. That was in line with Wall Street expectations. And down from the 0.9% gain in the inflation index reported for June. That was enough to send stock prices higher as investors and traders decided the data supports the...
Today’s trading doesn’t answer big questions posed by Amazon and Caterpillar earnings last week
I’m looking for answers to two big questions that earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Caterpillar (CAT) left us with last week. In the case of Amazon, where the company reported a slide in revenue growth after a big bump in sales due to everybody ordering everything...
Federal Reserve says it is staying the course, for now
No change. But change coming someday. (Not soon, though.) That was the message from today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. The central bank held interest rates steady at 0% to 0.25% and maintained its schedule for purchases of...
Watch my new YouTube video: Inflation is here–listen to Pepsi and Conagra
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My thirty-third YouTube video “Inflation is here–listen to Pepsi and Conagra” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You...
If China’s growth is slowing, can the U.S. and other economies be far behind?
That’s the worry set off by the announcement last week by the People’s Bank of China that it would cut the reserve requirement for China’s big banks by 50 basis points. While economists had been expecting the move from the People’s Bank, they...
Trying to walk a fine line on sentiment over the next three months
Here’s my take on market sentiment over the next three months. First, in the very short-run, for the next four weeks of earnings season, it’s hard for me to imagine that investors and traders will sell ahead of one of the biggest surges in year over year...
Watch my new YouTube video: “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see...
No surprise: Fed’s preferred inflation measure climbs at 3.9% year over year rate in May
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose 0.4% in May to an increase of 3.9% from May 2020. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed at a 3.4% rate from May 2020. That was the highest...
Watch my new YouTube video: “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-eighth YouTube video “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Today it’s the Dot Plot and not the Fed’s story that sends prices down
The rhetoric was the same after today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee: “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.” The Fed kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at 0% to 0.25% But the Dot Plot...
The Fed edges closer to losing control over the inflation narrative ahead of tomorrow’s Open Market Committee meeting
The Federal Reserve is facing a “can’t win” situation as chair Jerome Powell prepares his post-meeting statement for tomorrow. If Powell indicates that the Fed is even a bit more worried about inflation, that the central bank is thinking that the...
With Fed meeting on tap for tomorrow, stocks slip on disappointing retail sales growth
Retail sales fell by 1.3% in May from April, the Commerce Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 0.8% month over month drop. The month to month drop in retail sales was the first drop in month to month sales since February....
Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, stocks tread water
As of the close on Monday, June 4, the major stock indexes were treading water waiting to here what, if anything, the Federal Reserve might say after the Wednesday meeting of its interest-rate-setting body, the Open Market Committee. (No one really expects the Fed to...
CEO Dimon says JPMChase is building cash in expectation of higher interest rates
Today, Monday June 14, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said that the bank is holding around $500 billion in cash in order to benefit from higher interest rates. Dimon told a Morgan Stanley virtual conference that he expects rising inflation will result in higher...
Prices rise by a 5% year over year rate in May, market continues to buy Fed argument that inflation is temporary
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 5 percent in May from May 2020. That’s the fastest rate of increase since the Great Recession that followed on the Global Financial Crisis. Both the Federal Reserve and the Biden White House...
PCE inflation up at 3.6% rate in April; financial markets agree that inflation surge is temporary
Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose at a year over year rate of 3.6% in April. Prices rose 0.6% in April from March, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced this morning....
Gold draws near even for the year, approaches resistance
Gold closed up yesterday, May 24, by 0.27% to $1884.00 an ounce for August delivery on the COMEX. That took the metal to its highest price since its January 5 high for 2021 at $1954. The rally in gold from a March 8 low at $1678 an ounce, has not only brought gold...
Go away in May but come back when?
The Wall Street adage “Sell in May and go away” looks to be spot on this year. At the close yesterday on May 18, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which tracks the NASDAQ 100, was still p 2.83% for 2021, but down 2.96% for the last three months and off...
Watch Thursday’s TIPS auction for clues to inflation expectations
Inflation watchers–just about everyone in the financial markets these days–will focus on Thursday’s auction of $13 billion in 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) in the search of clues about the direction of inflation. Or...
Inflation soars and today investors are worried the Federal Reserve has lost control
Consumer prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) soared in April. For the month prices in the all-item index gained 0.8% for a 12-month increase of 4.2%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile prices in the food and energy sectors, was up 0.9% in April...
Watch my new YouTube video: 5 Stocks for an Inflation Scare
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-third YouTube video “Five Stocks for an Inflation Scare” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
VIX “fear index” spikes ahead of Wednesday’s CPI inflation report
Stocks are down across the markets today, May 11–with the Standard & Poor’s 500 lower by 0.87% at the close, the Dow down 1.36%, and the NASDAQ Composite off 0.09%–ahead of tomorrow’s report on the Consumer Price Index read on inflation....
What’s there to be afraid of this week? How about Wednesday’s CPI inflation report
Today’s drop in stocks–a drop of 1.04% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and a loss of 2.55% for the NASDAQ Composite at the close on May 10–is a reminder that runaway economic growth is only one horn of the financial market’s fears...
Weak jobs surprise send risk stocks up–but doesn’t take shine off commodity-inflation plays or reopening bets
Basically everything was up to one degree or another on the surprisingly weak jobs report–the economy added only 266,000 jobs–for April. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed higher by 0.74% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%. The...
Today’s ADP jobs survey keeps markets on edge over Friday’s government jobs report for April
U.S. private employers in April added the most jobs in seven months, according to data from the ADP Research Institute released today. Company payrolls rose by 743,000 in the month. That’s a big gain from the upwardly revised 565,000 gain in March. And...
Long-dated Treasuries continue to sell off, are now heavily shorted
Short interest in the $12 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose to 25% of shares outstanding this week. That’s the highest level since early 2017, according to data from IHS Markit. Investors and traders continue to dump the long Treasury and the...
Jobs, jobs, jobs: A blockbuster report on April jobs on Friday is likely to put more pressure on the Federal Reserve
The U.S. economy is likely to have added 978,000 jobs in April, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will report on Friday May 5, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be up from March’s gain of 916,000 jobs and would be the biggest increase since...
Consumer price inflation rises more than expected but markets go “So What?”
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in March from February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Year over year consumer prices are 2.6% higher than they were in March 2020. Economists had projected that the headline CPI would climb 0.5% in March from...
Feared higher inflation doesn’t materialize in February data
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index fell 0.2% month to month in February from January. That was below economist expectations of a 0.5% month to month gain. On a year over year basis, the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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