Fed March minutes show central bank as hawkish on interest rates as expected/feared
Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve released Wednesday, April 6, showed that only Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kept the central bank from raising benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points instead the 25 basis-point increase the Fed actually...
Ooof! Yield on 10-year Treasury hits 2.38% at the close today
As of the close today, Tuesday, March 22, Treasuries had sold off steeply raising the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 2.38%, a huge (for the Treasury bond market) 9 basis points. The rout took the yield on the 2-year Treasury to 2.16%. On Friday,March 18, the 2-year...
Airlines climb on oil drop, traffic pickup–now it gets tricky
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported a better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked...
Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use
Consternation isn’t an investment strategy. Although I certainly understand that reaction to current stock market moves. The day to day volatility is that extreme. But if we focus on that volatility and on how confusing this market is, I think we’re in...
Powell tells markets to expect 25 basis point interest rate increase on March 16
Not 0%. But then almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates at its March 16 meeting–even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not 50 basis points. Although many on Wall Street project that the Fed will throw its customary caution...
PCE inflation accelerates in January but not enough to spook markets
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January. The core PCE...
Hey, remember the Fed! New inflation numbers tomorrow, Friday, morning
I know it’s easy to forget that there’s other market moving news on the horizon (besides what the next day will bring in the Russian invasion of Ukraine) but tomorrow, Friday, February 25, the government will report the Personal Consumption Expenditures...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and-fifth YouTube video “Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases” went up today. So how will the seemingly imminent...
Next inflation report due Friday and it’s not looking good
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation index that the Federal Reserve uses, is projected at an annual rate of 6% in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core rate, which excludes food and fuels, is forecast to...
Federal Reserve’s January 26 minutes already outdated by inflation, jobs news
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past as to be positively neolithic if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start...
CPI inflation comes in hotter than expected at 7.5%
CPI inflation climbed at a 7.5% annual rate in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was above the 7.3% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and a big jump from the 7.0% annual rate reported in December. The inflation number just...
Tomorrow’s a big day for inflation and interest rate increases from the Fed
Tomorrow, January 10, before the market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index inflation for January. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting an annualized increase of 7.2% in inflation. That would be a significant...
U.S. economy adds 467,000 jobs in January–more than economists had expected and cementing the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in March
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs....
PCE inflation measure confirms CPI–inflation is hot, hot, hot
Nothing new here in a way. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve, jumped to an annualized 5.8% rate in December. That confirms the message from the 7% annualized increase in the Consumer Price Index reported...
Even good earnings and guidance, and decent inflation news from P&G can’t push stocks higher today
Procter & Gamble (PG) reported adjusted earnings of $1.66 a share for its fiscal second quarter. Analysts had expected the company to report earnings $1.65 a share. Revenue of $21 billion also came in ahead of Wall Street projections $20.34 billion. Organic sales...
CPI inflation climbed at 7% year to year in December–stocks barely budge
As of the close in New York on Wednesday, January 12, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.28%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average had edged higher by 0.11%; and the NASDAQ Composite had climbed 0.23%. Even though, the Labor Department reported this morning...
Powell says just about nothing and market rallies
The big news out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s told Congress appearance before the Senate today (President Joe Biden has nominated him for another term as head of the Fed) was that if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed would more aggressively...
What’s ahead for the stock market (and investors) in 2022? Here’s what to look for to drive the year
Looking ahead at 2022, it’s not too hard to list the forces that will drive the financial markets. Putting those forces together and blocking out a schedule for their effects on the stock market? Well, that’s a lot harder. But let me try. Here’s my...
Watch my new YouTube Video: Why the Fed is bluffing on interest rates
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-first YouTube video “Why the Fed is bluffing on interest rates” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s...
CPI inflation ran at 6.8% annual rate in November–exactly what economists had projected so stocks moved higher
Stocks rose today, December 10, as a huge jump in CPI inflation exactly matched economists’ projections. As they say on the basketball court, “No surprise; no foul.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed at a 6.8% annual rate in November....
Market holds reasonably steady ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report expected to show 6.8% annual inflation rate
Tomorrow’s inflation report–the Consumer Price Index (CPI) flavor–has the potential to end the recent uptick in stocks and send prices back down and volatility back up. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a year over year...
A Biden vote of confidence in Powell at the Fed is a vote of no confidence in the economy
I realize this is very contrarian, but… This morning President Joe Biden announced that he will renominate Jerome Powell to another four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Wall Street sounds like it’s generally happy with the...
Consumer inflation up 6.2% year over year in October for biggest annual jump since 1991
In October the headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% from September and 6.2% from October 2020, according to the U.S. Labor Department. The increases exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Higher prices for energy, shelter, food and vehicles...
Fed says it will start taper of asset purchases in November with end to buying by middle of 2022
After today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee the U.S. central bank said it would start slowing the pace of its monthly $120 billion in asset purchases this month. The slowdown would take place at a rate of $15 billion a month, which...
Projections for Christmas spending by consumers sure make it look like inflation expectations are rising
Consumers’ holiday spending intentions are a tad lower than in 2020, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board. On average, consumers intend to spend $648 on gifts this holiday season, according to the survey. That’s down from $673 in 2020. But it...
Watch my new YouTube video: “Trend of the Week–Hidden Inflation”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My sixtieth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Hidden Inflation”” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
If P&G earnings are an accurate indication, the Main Street economy is in trouble
Today, October 19, Procter & Gamble (PG) reported fiscal year first quarter earnings of $1.61 against Wall Street projections of $1.59. (That’s down 1% from the first quarter of the prior fiscal year.) Sales grew to $20.34 billion versus Wall Street...
Price increases are “transitory”? Headline CPI soars at 5.4% rate
Inflation wasn’t so bad in September–as long as you didn’t eat or use any energy. Headline inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% from August and climbed at a 5.4% year over year rate. Core inflation, which excludes increases in the...
There’s an oat shortage–not good for OTLY or GIS; not good for food inflation in general
his year a drought hit oat farmers just in time to shape oat production nearly in half in Canada, the world’s largest oat exporter. In the United States, one of the top consumers of the grain used in everything from oat milk to Cheerios to granola bars, the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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