Can Beijing fix its run-way bank lending problem? Does it really want to?
Important math yesterday, November 22, by the Financial Times’s James Kynge, the paper’s long-time China correspondent and author of the book China Shakes the World. Kynge notes that the official new bank loan total so far for 2010—a daunting 6.9 trillion renminbi in...China raises bank reserves again–another increase in benchmark interest rates can't be far behind
If at fourth, you don’t succeed in slowing inflation, bank lending, and growth in the money supply, try a fifth increase in bank reserve requirements. Today, November 19, the People’s Bank of China announced that banks would have to increase the money they keep as...Prices for 7- to 10-year Treasuries fall–if that's a trend expect money to start flowing back into stocks from bonds
For most of 2010 Treasury bonds have been a very good investment. Sure, they haven’t paid much in interest but with yields falling, Treasury bond prices have been climbing. And so the gain on the iShares Barclay 7-10 Year Treasury ETF, which tracks the price of seven...So exactly how serious is Beijing about slowing China's economy?
Have China’s biggest banks been banned from making further loans to property developers this year or not? The answer isn’t just of interest to real estate developers and investors who hold their shares. Lending policy in this sector is a good indicator of how serious...Core consumer price inflation is still on track for 0%
Inflation at the consumer level was nowhere to be seen in October. The CPI, Consumer Price Index, edged upward by 0.2% for October. In September the CPI climbed 0.1%. Economists had been projecting a 0.3% increase for October. Core inflation, that’s inflation...China gets the worries big time over inflation fixes
The news is that China’s government is drafting policies to fight inflation. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said so on November 15 from a supermarket in Guangzhou. The comments were broadcast on state TV so they count as solid news. The rumor is that China’s central bank...Inflation continues to accelerate in China, hits 4.4% in October
Those economists and traders who thought that the November 10 increase in the reserve requirement for China’s banks was a sign that inflation in October had soared have turned out to be absolutely correct. But too conservative. After the People’s Bank of China raised...Buy Silver Wheaton (SLW)
Silver is cheap. Well, it is when compared to gold anyway. On Friday morning gold hit $1397.70 an ounce, an all time high. (If you don’t correct for inflation.) Silver, on the other hand, moved up to $26.90 an ounce. That’s just a 30-year high. See, cheaper. You...Even before the Fed acts, the long bond is signalling rising inflation worries
Something odd is happening in the bond market on the way to the Federal Reserve’s second program of quantitative easing: Interest rates at the long end of the Treasury market have started to rise. From one perspective this is counter-intuitive. The Fed is about to...Better than TIPS? 3 stocks with inflation protection and a positive yield too
This week investors bought $10 billion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)—and paid for the privilege of lending the Federal government money. Investors paid $105 for each $100 in face value. That reduced the yield on these bonds to a negative 0.55%....Inflation numbers send Shanghai market into reverse (but down this time)
Good news plus bad news on China’s economy added up to bad news for China’s stocks today, October 21. The good news was that China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 9.6% in the third quarter. That was slightly ahead of the 9.5% that economists surveyed by Bloomberg...Inflation barely present in September frees the Fed to move to buy billions in Treasuries
Friday’s inflation data put the last bit of icing on the quantitative-easing cake. Released on October 15, the CPI, the consumer price index, showed inflation slowing to just 0.1% in September after prices rose by 0.3% in August. The core CPI, which subtracts...Inflation pauses in Brazil and so does the central bank; look for that to keep Brazil's economy cooking
Inflation is falling in Brazil. Through for the 30-day period through mid-August consumer inflation was just 4.44%. That’s the first time since January that inflation has been below the government’ target of 4.5%. Now the question is How long will the improvement...Time to rethink assumptions about interest rates–and income investing strategies
Reality has a nasty way of throwing investors’ assumptions onto the rubbish heap. Take this one: The massive stimulus packages, central bank interventions, and government budget deficits will lead to a surge of inflation and rising interest rates. That may still turn...Inflation is everywhere–except in China's official consumer inflation numbers
In the first quarter China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 11.9%, according to official statistics released today, April 15. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting growth of just 11.7%. Remember the days when investors worried that a 10% growth rate would...Brazil joins China on the road to higher inflation–and higher interest rates
China isn’t the only developing economy facing inflation pressures. Economists are projecting that consumer price inflation in Brazil will hit an annual rate of 5.2% this year. That’s well above the government’s target of 4.5%. The central bank is expected to start...Tomorrow's GDP report will add to fears of inflation in China
Sneak preview on China’s first quarter GDP and March inflation from Reuters today, April 14. China’s economy grew about 11.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, unofficial numbers available in Beijing say according to Reuters. That would be above even the...China takes another step toward fighting inflation, ending its currency peg
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, will sell three-year bills for the first time since June 2008. The sale is a likely precursor to either an increase in official interest rates by the central bank or an end to the renminbi/dollar currency peg. In...U.S. interest rates are rising–and 4% on 10-year Treasuries is in sight again
Have you noticed that long-term U.S. interest rates have been inching upwards even as the Federal Reserve holds its short-term target at 0% to 0.25%? Yields on the 10-year Treasury bond finished last week at 3.95% on Friday, April 2. That’s within an eyelash of the...Coming to a Wal-Mart near you: Inflation from China
Inflation. It’s different this time. It’s still got the same old causes: too much money pumped into the economy, huge economic stimulus that’s causing a shortage of goods and labor in some sectors, budget deficits and long-term debt that’s spiraling out of control and...Will April bring higher interest rates in Brazil?
Brazil is about to join China and India in fighting inflation. On March 17 the Brazilian central bank, Banco Central do Brazil, surprised pretty much every economist in the country by holding its benchmark interest rate steady. But that’s just raised their...Inflation is breaking loose in China and India
The inflation news from the United States was absolutely benign yesterday, March 18. Can’t say the same for a big piece of the developing world. Inflation is on the loose from China to India. The only question is Will somebody important to the global economy wreck...Fight inflation now but no currency appreciation, says China's Wen
So much for that then. In remarks that put a period to the annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress Premier Wen Jiabao said that China’s currency is not undervalued. “We oppose all countries engaging in mutual finger pointing or taking strong measures to...Bad news overnight on Chinese inflation: Is it out of control?
Bad news on inflation from China last night could give global stock markets the jitters today, March 11. Higher than expected consumer price inflation in February at an annual rate of 2.7% is likely to revive fears that Beijing will try to slow the speed of economic...China's imports soar; good news for the U.S. economy
It quite likely puts off any move to allow its currency to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, but news that China’s imports were up 45% in February 2010 from February 2009 is great news for the still struggling economies of the developed world. Growth in China’s...Update Goldcorp (GG)
What you want in a gold stock is a company with rising reserves and falling costs. Goldcorp’s (GG) end of 2009 report on reserves shows that it’s still delivering rising reserves. We’ll see how the company is doing on costs when it reports after the market closes on...Mr. Bond turns bearish on bonds
Mr. Bond, Pimco’s Bill Gross, doesn’t like bonds so much anymore. Gross, who manages the $200 billion Total Return Fund at Pacific Investment Management (Pimco) told CNBC on December 7 that Treasuries are over-valued given the odds that inflation and interest rates...Right now a little inflation is good news
Inflation? Ever heard of it? It’s back. Or at least investors can smell the faint whiff of it amidst the seasonal tang of freshly cut Christmas trees. And that’s actually a good thing. On December 15 the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Producer Price...Peak gold? One more reason that high gold prices are here to stay
Peak gold? You may have heard of peak oil, the theory that at some point—ranging from 2005 to 2025–the world will have found all the easy oil there is to find and that after that new finds won’t be able to keep up with the global rate of consumption. But peak...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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