Mild inflation numbers lead to mild market gains
The headline consumer price index, the government announced this morning, rose 0.3% in September. That follows on a 0.2% increase in August. The headline rate of inflation is now 1.5% year over year. That’s the highest rate of inflation for this number since...
Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable
It’s not like U.S. stocks didn’t have enough to worry about today. The bond market priced in the highest level of inflation expectations since May. Oil fell as Russia’s biggest producer Rosneft said it won’t cut output. Alcoa (AA), the company...
You can read today’s inflation data two ways–which will the Fed pick?
Hope you weren’t expecting this morning’s inflation data to tell you whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. (I believe that an interest rate increase at the Fed’s November 2 meeting is just about a...
Economy and financial markets point in different directions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Pity the poor Federal Reserve. In making decisions about interest rates–in this case about whether or not to raise interest rates at its June, July or September meetings–it has to consider the condition of both the real economy and the financial markets. And right now...
UK voters decide to leave European Union–What’s next (Part 1 short term effects)?
By a surprisingly large margin of 52% to 48% the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit referendum. Global financial markets plunged in a decline all the more dramatic because traders and investors had decided on Wednesday that the...Core U.S. inflation rate accelerates to normal
Two ways to look at this morning’s U.S. inflation data. First, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in above expectations with a 0.4% increase in January. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase, according to Briefing.com. That puts the headline inflation rate at an...Even after an "adjustment" at 4.9% China's inflation is too fast
Call it the surprise that wasn’t very surprising. Before today’s release of consumer price inflation data for January in China, economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 5.4% annual inflation rate. That would have been a big increase from the 4.6% annual...So when will interest rate hikes stop hanging over emerging stock markets?
One and done. Two, we’re through. Three, we’re free. Four, no more. Five… At some point the central banks of India, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and other developing countries will decide that they’ve raised interest rates enough to combat inflation. They will...China and U.S. inflation numbers arrive this week
After lots of news about inflation in India, Brazil, Indonesia, and the European Union, this week we’ll get new inflation numbers from the United States and China. China is scheduled to release inflation numbers for January on Tuesday, February 15. After running at a...Inflation and interest rates in developed economies? Here's what the markets are predicting now
Here’s an interest rate calendar for the economies of the developed world that you can put up on your office wall—but it is subject to revision. (I know it’s shocking but markets do get this stuff wrong from time to time.) Right now the futures markets are...India shows why money is flowing out of emerging markets right now
Want to see why investors worry so much about the world’s emerging markets that they are taking money out of these stocks? Just take a gander at India. In an effort to fight inflation the Reserve Bank of India has raised interest rates seven times in the last 12...Inflation edges higher in Brazil–and government budget cuts are just the minimum expected
In spite of a 0.5 percentage point increase in its benchmark Selic interest rate to 11.25% and an increase in bank reserve requirements in December, inflation in Brazil failed to slow in January. The IPCA index rose 0.83% for the month, increasing the annual inflation...USDA reports global wheat producer lower than expected–forget about inflation relief from falling food prices
This isn’t good news for anyone worried that soaring food prices are fueling global inflation. Today, February 9, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecasts of global wheat inventories because of falling production in the Ukraine. Global stockpiles will...Brazil's economy slows but bets are that interest rate increases aren't done
Will a second straight monthly drop in industrial production put Brazil’s interest rate increases on hold? December output fell by 0.7% from November. November’s output was itself down 0.2% from October. The drop came as a surprise to economists who were expecting...Who holds the most U.S. Treasuries in the world? (Hint: It's not China.)
Why is this not terribly reassuring? Last week a newcomer moved to the top of the rankings for the world’s leading holder of U.S. Treasuries. Used to be Japan, once upon a time. But Japan with holdings of $877 billion in U.S. Treasuries is now No. 3. For a while China...Update HDFC Bank (HDB)
Another day, another interest rate increase from an emerging economy central bank. On January 25, it was the turn of the Reserve Bank of India. The bank raised its benchmark repurchase rate to 6.5% from 6.25%. The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates six times...Sell Branco Bradesco (BBD)
This is a very tough call. If I owned more than one Brazilian bank stock, I might not sell Banco Bradesco (BBD) out of Jubak’s Picks today—but I don’t. If I had less exposure to Brazilian stocks in my Jubak’s Picks portfolio, I might not sell Banco Bradesco—but I own...China cooks the books: the official numbers understate economic growth
Everyone assumes that China cooks its numbers on inflation and GDP growth. (The rest of the world’s governments, including that of the United States, would never do something like that. Wink, wink.) The January 18 report of fourth quarter GDP growth and December...10 reasons to love inflation
Friends, readers, and consumers, save me your jeers. I come to praise inflation, not to bury it. Hey, I think inflation is getting a bum rap. In the U.S. anyway. Sure, run-away inflation in China and Brazil and India looks like it’s going to cause a lot of pain to...Brazil's new central bank president steps on the brakes with a 50 basis point interest rate increase
Not as bad as the worst forecasts, but the January 19 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase from Brazil’s central bank does promise that Alexandre Tombini, new president of the Banco Central do Brasil, is going to aggressively raise rates to fight inflation....What to do to get ready for a correction in overseas stock markets
Yesterday, January 20, I posted saying that I thought investors were looking at a 5% or so pullback in U.S. stocks. Really nothing more than a necessary decline after a long rally so that stocks in the United States can build a new base. I continue to look for a...The standard strategies for "inflation investing" aren't going to work in 2011
Inflation just looks like the biggest story of 2011 for investors. It’s not. The success or failure of government actions to fight inflation is the biggest story of 2011. What’s the difference? If inflation were the story, you all know what I’d be telling you to do....China GDP growth of 9.8% socks stocks on inflation, tightening fears
Enough with the rumors and the leaks. This morning we have official numbers on economic growth and inflation from China. For the fourth quarter of 2010 GDP growth in China accelerated to 9.8%. That was higher than the 9.6% annual growth recorded in the third quarter...China's bond market doesn't believe inflation is under control
Yes, China has a government bond market. It even has a yield curve. And right now the bond market and the yield curve are signaling worries about inflation just ahead of the release of China’s report on fourth quarter GDP growth. Economists project that China’s...China still isn't serious about inflation and that's an increasing danger
Once more in to the breach, dear friends, once more. The People’s Bank of China yesterday increased the reserve requirements for China’s banks for the fourth time in two months. The 0.5 percentage point increase brings the reserve ratio for China’s biggest banks to a...What inflation fight? Bank lending and money supply soar in China
Nothing in these numbers to suggest that inflation in China is headed anywhere but higher. Or that China’s government has a handle on the country’s run away money supply growth. Chinese banks, as forecast, burst through the 2010 quota of 7.5 trillion yuan set by...Inflation enters dangerous territory in the European Union–and I don't see it stopping here
Talk about getting caught between a rock and rocking the entire European Union. Inflation kicked up to an annual rate of 2.2% in December in the European Union. That’s well above the European Central Bank’s oft-stated target of an annual rate “close but below” 2%. In...It's price controls to fight supermarket inflation, China's Premier Wen promises in Mongolian supermarket
It’s an odd ritual. Something like Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney without the groundhog. At the start of the calendar year China’s Premier Wen Jiabao visits a remote corner of China, mingles with the crowds, and delivers a major message about the coming year. This year...China will set the tone for global stock markets in 2011 but what message are China's stocks sending now?
The Shanghai stock market is closed today, Monday January 3, to observe New Year’s Day—which gives investors a chance to catch up on the market’s rather unusual reaction to a Christmas Day interest rate increase by the People’s Bank of China.Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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