USDA reports global wheat producer lower than expected–forget about inflation relief from falling food prices
This isn’t good news for anyone worried that soaring food prices are fueling global inflation. Today, February 9, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecasts of global wheat inventories because of falling production in the Ukraine. Global stockpiles will...Egypt has escalated the food crisis and shifted global economic policy on inflation too
Food prices are headed back to the historic peaks they hit in 2007-2008. Last time I wrote about food—on January 14–that was the headline. A little more than two weeks later that observation seems old hat. Events in Tunisia and Egypt—and elsewhere in the...Food prices are back to 2008 peaks–here are 10 stocks that tap into the trend
Riots in Algeria over the cost of sugar and wheat. Mexico’s government buys corn futures to hedge against rising tortilla prices. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh forced to arrange onion imports from traditional enemy Pakistan. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promises...Buy Lindsay (LNN)
Ah, if Lindsay (LNN) was just a pure play irrigation company. Then Lindsay wouldn’t have missed fiscal first quarter earnings by 15 cents a share yesterday, December 22. But, on the other hand, then investors wouldn’t be able to pick up one of the few global...Update Deere (DE)
Valuing a cyclical stock such as Deere (DE)—which reports fourth quarter fiscal 2010 earnings on Wednesday, November 24–is always difficult. You have to figure out where the company is in the revenue cycle from peak to trough and back again. And you have to...Where corn prices go (and that’s UP), meat prices will follow
The fall out continues from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s shocking turnaround on the size of this year’s corn crop. On Friday October 8 the USDA completely reversed its optimistic September 30 projection of corn production for the year and slashed its estimate...Whoops! USDA has to eat its optimistic projections from September 30 on corn crop and sets off commodity surge
It looks like the U.S. Department of Agriculture has been completely wrong-footed by the U.S. corn crop. And that has sent agriculture stocks soaring today, October 8. Just a few months ago the USDA was projecting a record crop. Just a couple of weeks ago on September...Call it "nutritionals," or nutriceuticals" or whatever–but here's how to invest in the hottest market in food
Nobody can accuse these companies of thinking short-term. Along with its third quarter earnings report on October 7 PepsiCo (PEP) announced that it was creating a new Global Nutrition Group “to deliver breakthrough innovation in the areas of fruits and vegetables,...Cosan and Shell move, slowly, closer to creating the third largest ethanol (and from sugar cane not corn) producer in the world
It’s taking quite a while to get this one done. But the joint venture announced in February between Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) and Brazilian sugar and ethanol giant Cosan (CZZ) has finally moved to the signing of binding agreements. The deal, when completed, would create...Sell McDonald's (MCD)
McDonald’s (MCD) has put together an extraordinary 2010—so far. But I’m not as excited about the second half of the year, especially not at current share prices. On Monday August 9 McDonald’s announced that global comparable store sales climbed 7% in July from July...Russia's ban on wheat exports sets the commodity markets on fire
On August 5, Russia banned grain exports for the rest of the year. Drought has destroyed about 20% of the wheat crop of one of the world’s top wheat exporters. The ban will run from August 15 until December 31. At a minimum. Wheat prices, already up 70% this summer,...Update Potash of Saskatchewan (POT)
Listening to the Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) conference call today, July 29, I kept thinking that some one was going to yell, “Cue the plague of locusts.” In Russia grain production will fall by 20% because of drought, the company said. Canadian wheat production is...A disappointing corn forecast and rising demand from China add up for ag stocks
It may seem counter-intuitive but bad news on corn supply is usually good news for the stocks of companies that sell stuff to farmers. The dynamic works like this: lower supply means higher prices for the crops that farmers do harvest and that means they’ll have more...Sell Yara International (YARIY.PK)
I love fertilizer stocks as a long term play on rising global demand for food and Yara International (YARIY), the world’s largest publicly traded fertilizer company, is one of my favorites in the sector. But that’s the long term picture. In the short term Yara...Sell Potash of Saskatchewan (POT)
So was that good news or bad news that Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) announced this morning, April 28? For the first quarter of 2010 the company reported earnings of $1.47 a share and revenue of $1.71 billion. Both numbers beat Wall Street projections of $1.32 per...Update Deere (DE)
Deere (DE) is both a stock and one of the most reliable indicators of the fortunes of the agricultural sector. No matter whether you own Deere (the shares are a member of the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio) or are waiting for a turn in the sector as a whole, you...Update Yara International (YARIY.PK)
Norwegian fertilizer maker Yara International (YARIY.PK), already the biggest publicly-listed fertilizer maker in the world, just bought itself a big hunk of the North American market. In an all-cash deal Yara agreed yesterday, February 15, to buy Terra Industries...Sell Deere (DE)
Sometimes the words are worse than the numbers. And that’s the case with Deere’s (DE) November 25 guidance for fiscal 2010, which began on November 1, 2009. The company said fiscal 2010 earnings would come in at $2.12 a share on a 1% decline in sales. First quarter...Up/down, buy/sell, gloom/boom: It's not easy to be a long-term investor
Take the long view The stock market is fixated on the short-term, we all know that. It’s an unusual occasion when stock analysts and investors look more than a few quarters ahead. That means stock prices often tend to respond to short-term news as if it were the only...Update Bunge (BG)
On October 22 Bunge (BG) reported disappointing revenue for the third quarter of 2009, missing Wall Street estimates by $900 million. And then the company guided Wall Street to expect earnings of just $3.10 to $3.50 for the full 2009 year instead of the $4.69 analysts...Do you see a pattern here? Is it a good sign for the economy that consumers are eating more cereal and TV dinners?
Let them eat cereal. And TV dinners. Cake may need to wait for the recovery. This morning General Mills (GIS) reported fiscal first quarter earnings of $1.28 a share, a huge 25 cents a share better than Wall Street was expecting. And the company raised its guidance...Do frozen TV dinners demand a place in your portfolio?
I’m constantly on the lookout for products (and companies and stocks) that are positioned to make more money in the near term from the frugal times ahead or that in the longer term address the demands of an aging population. The recent quarterly results from...Update Potash of Saskatchewan (POT)
Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) lowered its guidance for third quarter 2009 and full year 2009 earnings again on Monday, September 21. The company now expects earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 for the full year versus its previous projections of $4.00 to $5.00 and the Wall...Is there profit in water by the drop?
Water is the difference between paradise and hell. As far as I know that isn’t an old Moorish saying, but it should be. Driving through the fields of Andalucía last week, I remember looking out the right hand-window and seeing nothing but burnt brown earth and olive...Update Deere (DE)
Deere’s (DE) third quarter earnings report on August 19 confirmed what the company forecast in its second quarter report: forget about 2009. In the quarter earnings per share fell by 25% to 99 cents from $1.32 in the third quarter of 2008. Revenue dropped 24% to $5.89...Update Monsanto (MON)
I think the recent huge price increase from Monsanto (MON) is pretty much like putting a sign on the company’s back saying “Kick me.” I wonder if hiking seed prices by as much as 42% when much of the developing world is on the edge of a food crisis...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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