CPI inflation ran at 6.8% annual rate in November–exactly what economists had projected so stocks moved higher
Stocks rose today, December 10, as a huge jump in CPI inflation exactly matched economists’ projections. As they say on the basketball court, “No surprise; no foul.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed at a 6.8% annual rate in November....
Market holds reasonably steady ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report expected to show 6.8% annual inflation rate
Tomorrow’s inflation report–the Consumer Price Index (CPI) flavor–has the potential to end the recent uptick in stocks and send prices back down and volatility back up. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a year over year...
Federal Reserve’s Powell stops calling inflation “transitory” and stocks tank–except for Apple
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell retired the word “transitory” to describe stubbornly high inflation in testimony today in front of the Senate Banking Committee. And, Powell continued, the Fed might accelerate the pace at which it is winding down its purchase of...
Watch my new YouTube video: Recalculating the interest rate outlook for 2022
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My seventy-second YouTube video “Recalculating the interest rate outlook for 2022” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video....
A Biden vote of confidence in Powell at the Fed is a vote of no confidence in the economy
I realize this is very contrarian, but… This morning President Joe Biden announced that he will renominate Jerome Powell to another four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Wall Street sounds like it’s generally happy with the...
Fed says it will start taper of asset purchases in November with end to buying by middle of 2022
After today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee the U.S. central bank said it would start slowing the pace of its monthly $120 billion in asset purchases this month. The slowdown would take place at a rate of $15 billion a month, which...
Projections for Christmas spending by consumers sure make it look like inflation expectations are rising
Consumers’ holiday spending intentions are a tad lower than in 2020, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board. On average, consumers intend to spend $648 on gifts this holiday season, according to the survey. That’s down from $673 in 2020. But it...
Is the Goldilocks market ready for challenges from the bears?
You can see yesterday’s stock rally and its continuation today as a return of the Goldilocks market. Yesterday, for example, inflation, if you look just at core inflation–that is without food and energy prices–looked strong enough to make the Federal...
Why financial markets didn’t believe today’s jobs number
Going into today’s September jobs report, the consensus speculation was that a print of fewer than 200,000 new jobs for the month had the potential to move the market because it would be weak enough to push the Federal Reserve into putting off its plans to begin...
Tomorrow’s September jobs number is the BIG DEAL for this week
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting the economy to have added 500,000 jobs in September. Anything way above or way below the number will move expectations on when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its monthly purchases of Treasuries and...
Watch my new YouTube video: “The market’s big fear is the economy”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-ninth YouTube video “The market’s big fear is the economy” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
More (verbal) news from the Fed this afternoon than the consensus expected
As expected the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee kept the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at 0% to 0.25% and left its bond buying program on a path to buy $120 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets a month. Unexpectedly, though,...
Individuals buying on the dip can’t keep stocks in the green today
Retail investors sure tried. They bought $1.93 billion in stocks on Monday. But after a solidly higher open today, Tuesday, September 21, that saw the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 0.78% at 9:48 a.m., stocks drifted slowly lower for the rest of the day as a...
Inflation is moderating–if you want to read today’s numbers that way
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in August (on a seasonally adjusted basis.) That comes after a 0.5% increase in July. Year over year the headline CPI rose 5.3% in August. That’s slightly below...
Will we get “inflation volatility” from tomorrow’s CPI report?
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to have edged lower in August in tomorrow morning’s report. Expectations are that the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell in August to a 4.2% year over year rate. The core CPI hit 4.5%...
Stock market “frets” ahead of tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed chair Powell
Investors and traders are hedging their bets–a little–ahead of tomorrow morning’s speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at the central banker’s (virtual) Jackson Hole jamboree. The worry is that Powell will says something relatively...
Is it “Delta Variant to the rescue” for financial bets on lower for longer interest rates from the Fed?
This quote on Bloomberg today caught my eye. It may be a crucial explanation for why the market is so unfazed by the possibility that the Federal Reserve might announce a schedule for paring back its $120 billion in bond purchases either at next week’s central...
Release of Federal Reserve July minutes sends stocks tumbling
Very little mystery about what sent stocks lower today, August 18. As of 2:10 p.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat for the day with a tick down of just 0.05%. By 2:16, after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s...
Stocks decide inflation is in retreat and move higher
The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.5% in July. That was in line with Wall Street expectations. And down from the 0.9% gain in the inflation index reported for June. That was enough to send stock prices higher as investors and traders decided the data supports the...
So when does the Federal Reserve become the Treasury market?
Back in 2018 the Federal Reserve started to run down its valance sheet out of concern that its asset pile had grown so large that the central bank was in danger of becoming the market for things like Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets. (For some of the dangers in...
July job report says the economy added 943,000 jobs in July: Did it really? What’s it all mean
This morning the Labor Department released its July jobs report. It showed a gain in non-farm payrolls of 943,000 against 938,000 in June and the 865,000 proejcted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The headline unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.9% in June and a...
Federal Reserve says it is staying the course, for now
No change. But change coming someday. (Not soon, though.) That was the message from today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. The central bank held interest rates steady at 0% to 0.25% and maintained its schedule for purchases of...
Trying to walk a fine line on sentiment over the next three months
Here’s my take on market sentiment over the next three months. First, in the very short-run, for the next four weeks of earnings season, it’s hard for me to imagine that investors and traders will sell ahead of one of the biggest surges in year over year...
OPEC+ is in crisis again–but since no one knows quite what the result is likely to be, we’ve had big swings in sentiment and prices in the oil market (and in banks, other commodities, and the inflation/deflation play) today
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its affiliated oil producers (OPEC+) abandoned their Monday meeting after days of tense talks failed to result in an agreement on a tentative deal to increase production, and even over how to measure production....
New claims for unemployment fall in set up for tomorrow June jobs report
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs fell by 51,000 to 364,000 for the week ended June26, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for 388,000 new claims. The drop to 364,000 still left initial...
The week’s big event? Friday’s report on jobs for June
All eyes on the Friday morning release of the June employment numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a rebound from a weak May report to 700,000 net jobs added in June. May was a surprisingly weak 559,000 new jobs....
No surprise: Fed’s preferred inflation measure climbs at 3.9% year over year rate in May
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose 0.4% in May to an increase of 3.9% from May 2020. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed at a 3.4% rate from May 2020. That was the highest...
New unemployment claims fall but by less than expected
The job market is improving, but the rate of improvement is tantalizingly slow. New weekly jobless claims in regular state unemployment programs fell for the week ended on June 19 to 411,000. Economists had expected a drop to 380,000. The prior week saw a (revised)...
As promised in my YouTube video: How to position a portfolio for this market (additional thoughts)
To continue from my last post: Second, I think it’s just as important to recognize that even though the market is very slow and very reluctant to abandon a profitable long-tern macro story, it is very comfortable and indeed very adept at recognizing shorter term...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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