Fed March minutes show central bank as hawkish on interest rates as expected/feared
Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve released Wednesday, April 6, showed that only Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kept the central bank from raising benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points instead the 25 basis-point increase the Fed actually...
Fed’s Brainard sinks Treasuries and stocks with talk of more and faster inflation fighting
In remarks prepared for a Tuesday speech to the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said “Currently, inflation is much too high and is subject to upside risks. The committee is prepared to take stronger action if indicators of...
Lots more jobs; tiny bit more pay
The national job creation machine roared ahead in March. The U.S. economy aded 431,000 jobs. The official unemployment rate fell to a Pandemic low of 3.6 percent. This is the 11th consecutive month in which the economy added 400,000 or more jobs. The economy has...
Treasury yield curve inverts–a Recession indicator drops into place
Yesterday, March 28, a substantial piece of the Treasury yield curve fell into inversion. The yield on the 5-year Treasury climbed to 2.57%. Which put it above the yield both the 10-year Treasury at 2.46% and the 30-year Treasury at 2.55%. “Normally”...
Ooof! Yield on 10-year Treasury hits 2.38% at the close today
As of the close today, Tuesday, March 22, Treasuries had sold off steeply raising the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 2.38%, a huge (for the Treasury bond market) 9 basis points. The rout took the yield on the 2-year Treasury to 2.16%. On Friday,March 18, the 2-year...
Please watch my new YouTube video: The Fed gets depressed
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and thirteenth YouTube video “The Fed gets depressed” went up today. Happy spring! But not for the Fed. In the meeting today, the Federal...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Central Banks tighten faster than expected
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and twelfth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Central banks tighten faster than expected” went up today. This week I’m looking at tightening by...
Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use
Consternation isn’t an investment strategy. Although I certainly understand that reaction to current stock market moves. The day to day volatility is that extreme. But if we focus on that volatility and on how confusing this market is, I think we’re in...
Powell tells markets to expect 25 basis point interest rate increase on March 16
Not 0%. But then almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates at its March 16 meeting–even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not 50 basis points. Although many on Wall Street project that the Fed will throw its customary caution...
Could the Federal Reserve have a surprise for financial markets at its March 16 meeting?
I don’t think there’s a significant chance that the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates at its March 16 meeting. Inflation is just too potent and the risk to the U.S. central bank (and economy) just too great of encouraging a perception that...
PCE inflation accelerates in January but not enough to spook markets
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January. The core PCE...
Hey, remember the Fed! New inflation numbers tomorrow, Friday, morning
I know it’s easy to forget that there’s other market moving news on the horizon (besides what the next day will bring in the Russian invasion of Ukraine) but tomorrow, Friday, February 25, the government will report the Personal Consumption Expenditures...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and-fifth YouTube video “Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases” went up today. So how will the seemingly imminent...
Next inflation report due Friday and it’s not looking good
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation index that the Federal Reserve uses, is projected at an annual rate of 6% in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core rate, which excludes food and fuels, is forecast to...
Federal Reserve’s January 26 minutes already outdated by inflation, jobs news
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past as to be positively neolithic if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start...
Please watch my YouTube video: 50 basis points in March because the Fed is scared not to
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-ninth YouTube video “50 basis points in March because the Fed is scared not to” went up today. This week, I’m predicting that the Fed will use...
CPI inflation comes in hotter than expected at 7.5%
CPI inflation climbed at a 7.5% annual rate in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was above the 7.3% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and a big jump from the 7.0% annual rate reported in December. The inflation number just...
Tomorrow’s a big day for inflation and interest rate increases from the Fed
Tomorrow, January 10, before the market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index inflation for January. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting an annualized increase of 7.2% in inflation. That would be a significant...
U.S. economy adds 467,000 jobs in January–more than economists had expected and cementing the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in March
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs....
Please watch my new YouTube Video: What if the Fed is Wrong?
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-third YouTube video “What if the Fed is wrong?” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
Fed chair Powell gets a tad more specific in press conference and stocks don’t like it
In his post meeting press conference Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was ready to raise interest rates in March and didn’t rule out moving interest rates higher at every meeting in order to to tackle inflation. Stocks didn’t appreciate...
Federal Reserve delivers the expected
Today, January 26, in its post Open Market Committee press release the Federal Reserve said it would “soon” be appropriate to raise interest rates, as inflation runs above policymakers’ preferred target and the job market strengthens. The Fed left interest rates...
What happens when/if the Federal Reserve does nothing, says (almost) nothing tomorrow?
At the moment, Wall Street is mesmerized by tomorrow’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. The meeting is almost certain to result in no action on interest rates or Treasury purchases or balance sheet...
History says stock do well when the Fed raises interest rates–it’s likely to be different this time
According to stock market history, stock investors should be that the Federal Reserve is about to start raising interest rates. Stocks have risen at an average annualized rate of 9% during the 12 Federal Reserve interest rate increase cycles since the 1950s and...
It’s a bull market on inflation fears and scary Fed forecasts–which is actually a good thing
Once upon a time there was a stock market with what the central bank called “transitory” inflation. Wall Street money managers worried that the central bank was behind the curve on fighting inflation and projected that interest rates would go up in...
Please watch my new YouTube video: “3 Sectors to Avoid After the Fed Tightens”
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-seventh YouTube video “3 Sectors to Avoid After the Fed Tightens” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my...
Powell says just about nothing and market rallies
The big news out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s told Congress appearance before the Senate today (President Joe Biden has nominated him for another term as head of the Fed) was that if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed would more aggressively...
New claims for unemployment tick up slightly–if the numbers can be believed
Applications for unemployment benefits in regular state programs rose last week to 207,000 for the week ended January 1, the Labor Department reported today, Thursday, January 6. That was up 7,000 from the prior week and above the 195,000 predicted by economists...
Markets don’t like what they hear in Fed minutes from December
Today, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from its December 15 meeting of its interest-rate setting body the Federal Open Market Committee. Investors and traders didn’t like what they thought they heard–a growing consensus on a first interest rate...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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