Signs that inflation maybe peaking not enough for stocks today
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at an annual rate of 4.7% in May. That was below economists’ expectations and a slight dip from the 4.9% annual rate in April. If you were so...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation”
My one-hundred-and-forty-eighth YouTube video “Ouch! The Fed Gets Honest About Inflation” went up today. In front of the Senate Finance Committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed has all the tools it needs to fight inflation–except,...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates
My one-hundred-and-forty-seventh YouTube video “Rip the Band-Aid Off on Interest Rates” went up today. My Trend of the Week video this week looks at hedge fund gurus who have been yelling that the Federal Reserve needs even bigger interest rate increases...
Fed’s Dot Plot projections on economy, inflation, interest rates could have been much worse–wait for better times in 2024, central bank says
The projections released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 15–the so-called Dot Plot–show a central bank that sees a tough 2022, especially on interest rates and inflation, but a definite improvement in 2024. This fits with the developing Wall...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Fed Hike Makes the Market Happy
My one-hundred-and-forty-fifth YouTube video “Fed Hikes Make the Market Happy” went up today. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points today–instead of the 50 points so widely expected just weeks ago–and stocks rallied....
A bigger than consensus 75 basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve tomorrow could produce a stock market rally
I know this seems bass-ackwards. Stocks have spent two days in a vigorous sell off because of fears of higher interest rates and worries, after Friday’s surprise surge in CPI inflation to an 8.6% annual rate in May, that the Fed might decide to raise interest...Fed faces inflation “disaster” as data show signs that inflation expectations are becoming embedded
The latest Consumer Expectations survey (that is for May) from the New York Federal Reserve shows U.S. households’ anticipate inflation will rise at a 6.6% annual rate over the next year. That’s up from April expectations for a 6.3% rate. The May...
Please Watch My New You Tube Video: “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising”
My one-hundred-and-forty-second YouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds...
May jobs comes in stronger than expected; that should put the kibosh on thoughts of a Fed pause in September
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists had expected the economy to add 318.000 jobs for the month. In April the economy added a revised 436,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Economists...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Beware the Dot Plot
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-ninth YouTube video “Beware the Dot Plot” went up today. The next Fed meeting is June 15, and I think there isn’t much to worry about in terms of a coming rate increase (we know it will be 50 basis points, which the market...
Listen carefully–the Fed says, again, expect a 50 basis point increase in June and July and no September pause
Another Federal Reserve official talked the interest rate increase talk today. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard told CNBC that expectations for half-percentage-point increases in interest rates this month and next were reasonable, and that she saw no case for...
Watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Housing market cools
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-eighth YouTube video “Trend of the Week:Housing market cools” went up today. We’re seeing some of the first effects of the Fed’s increase in interest rates in the cooling of the housing market. In Austin, for...
So does the Fed want the stock decline to continue? First Fed speaker of the week emphasizes 50-basis-point interest rate hikes
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said today, May 30, that he wants to keep raising interest rates in half-percentage point steps until inflation is easing back toward the central bank’s goal of 2%. “I support tightening policy by another 50 basis points for...
This week will be a test of the new theory that the Fed is okay with a stock market decline and that the Powell Put is dead
I’m looking for a test this week of the new “Fed Call” theory. A few weeks ago, before last week’s rally anyway, the theory starting going around that the “Fed Put” (sometimes called the “Powell Put”) was dead. The Fed...
Please watch my new YouTube video: We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-seventh YouTube video “We’re headed to a recession…if the Fed is serious about fighting inflation” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
The Fed will engineer a recession–more details not in the video
In today’s YouTube video I argue that the Federal Reserve will have engineer a recession if it is serious about bringing inflation under control. This post gets more into the specific details of why I think that’s true than the video does. (I suggest...
Fed’s minutes from May meeting reassure markets; everybody is on the same page on interest rates
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 4 meeting shows central bank officials in agreement on the ned for 50-basis-point interest rate increases at the June and July meetings. And then, the minutes say, the Fed would respond to developments in the economy either...
Fed’s Bullard says two 50 basis point increases and a move to 3.5% by end of year are a “good benchmark”
But did he have to say it? The financial market would prefer not to think about inflation all the time. The markets are indeed pretty good at ignoring the inconvenient. But this morning Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said out loud what Wall...
U.S. economy adds 428,000 jobs in April; stock market says, Oh! No!
The U.S. economy aded 428,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, May 6. That matched the jobs gains in M arch and was above e the 380,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Economists...
Please watch my new YouTube video: “Market gives Fed a raspberry”
My one-hundredth-and-thirtieth YouTube video “Market gives Fed a razzberry” went up today. Yesterday, the Fed announced that it would raise rates by 50 basis points but that it was not looking to raise by 75 at the June or July meetings. In response, the...
Stocks rally as Powell seems to take 75 basis point increase in June and July off the table
Today the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announced that the central bank would raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. Stocks rallied strongly after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell seemed to take off the table the 75 basis point...
Treasury yields toy with 3% ahead of Wednesday Fed meeting
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project the Federal Reserve will hike its benchmark short-term interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday in an effort to damp inflation. And bond traders have just decided that the U.S.central bank will raise rates by 75 basis...
Headed your way–a flood of numbers on the economy; here’s my preview
Data, data everywhere in the next two days. From inflation to GDP. To begin with the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to report first quarter U.S. GDP growth tomorrow, April 28. Economists expect to see that the economy has grown at an annualized rate of just...
Projections of more aggressive Federal Reserve continue to hammer stocks
The financial markets have moved from pricing in 50 basis point increases in the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate at the May 4 and June 15 meetings to considering the possibility that the Fed will increase rates by 75 basis points in June and July. A 25...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Netflix, Inflation, and Demand Destruction”
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-third YouTube video “Netflix, Inflation, and Demand Destruction” went up today. Today I’m covering Netflix’s (NFLX) crash after releasing subscriber numbers showing the loss of 200K subscribers for the quarter and...
The Fed looks to have lost the battle on inflation expectations
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now say that consumer price index (CPI) inflation will average 5.7% in the final three months of 2022. That’s up from a forecast of 4.5% a month ago. (The March CPI report is due on Tuesday, April 12.) These economists also upped...
Fed March minutes show central bank as hawkish on interest rates as expected/feared
Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve released Wednesday, April 6, showed that only Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kept the central bank from raising benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points instead the 25 basis-point increase the Fed actually...
Fed’s Brainard sinks Treasuries and stocks with talk of more and faster inflation fighting
In remarks prepared for a Tuesday speech to the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said “Currently, inflation is much too high and is subject to upside risks. The committee is prepared to take stronger action if indicators of...
Lots more jobs; tiny bit more pay
The national job creation machine roared ahead in March. The U.S. economy aded 431,000 jobs. The official unemployment rate fell to a Pandemic low of 3.6 percent. This is the 11th consecutive month in which the economy added 400,000 or more jobs. The economy has...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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