Financial markets aren’t happy with Fed minutes from February 1 meeting
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s February 1 meeting show a central bank anticipating Federal Reserve further increases in interest rates in order to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Participants observed that a restrictive policy...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: 6% Yes, 8% No
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fortieth YouTube video: 6% Yes, 8% No. Today’s topic is: 6% Yes, 8% No. I’ve been saying that I think 6% is the peak for interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve this cycle. Inflation is not coming down as fast as...
More evidence of a strong economy in latest retail sales report–I’m sure the Fed is paying attention
U.S. retail sales in January jumped by 3% in January from December, the Commerce Department reported today, February 15. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2% increase. Retail sales had dropped in December and November. Together with the strong job gains...
Higher and longer creeps further into Wall Street thinking
Stocks didn’t move much today after the Consumer Price Index for January showed enough inflation strength to bring Federal Reserve officials out in force to talk about a potential need to raise interest rates above current financial market expectations. But...
Fed quick out of the blocks after today’s CPI inflation report: Higher interest rates may be needed
You might even think they knew what was coming. (Which of course the Federal Reserve does.) The pixels weren’t even dry on this morning’s CPI inflation report–6.4% year over year, a 10 basis point drop from December, but a 0.5% month-to-month...
Year-over-year inflation rate drops again, but month-to-month rate shows increase
If you remember your college (or high school if you were precocious) calculus, what we’re worrying about now isn’t the rate of inflation, or even the change in the rate of inflation, but the change in the change of the rate of inflation. Or, in other...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: 6% Is Coming
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-sixth YouTube video: 6% Is Coming This week’s Trend of the Week is: 6% is Coming. This song lyric keeps playing in my head: “They laughed at Christopher Columbus when he said the world was round.” I’ve...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Why March 22 Is the Next Big Date
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-fourth YouTube video: Why March 22 Is the Next Big Date Today’s topic is: Why March 22 Is the Next Big Date. March 22 is the date of the Fed’s next meeting. And it’s the first time we’ll get projections...
You heard what you wanted to hear in Powell’s Fed talk today
On the one hand, stock markets heard Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterate his comments of last week that “disinflation” had become visible. (Disinflation is a slowing in the inflation rate.) At the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500...
Stocks fall as Wall Street tries to figure out what January’s huge job gain means
Do the huge January job gains mean that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to a higher peak? That was the worry today and it was enough to send the Standard & Poor’s 500 0.61% lower at the close and to knock a solid 1% off the NASDAQ Composite....
Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points as expected; market convinces itself that the Fed is talking “Pause soon”
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates Wednesday by 25 basis points, as expected. That brings the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%, the highest level since October 2007. After a pullback on the news and the Fed’s...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: Now It’s May for the Fed’s Pause
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-first YouTube video: Now It’s May for the Fed’s Pause Today’s topic is: Now It’s May for the Fed’s Pause. There wasn’t a lot of suspense about today’s Fed meeting. The CME FedWatch...
Sell any post-Fed rally–stocks are way ahead of themselves on the Fed, interest rates, and inflation
Here’s what I expect on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will announce a 25 basis-point interest rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference Fed chair Jerome Powell will try to talk the financial markets out of their...
Economy down but stocks up? Remember that the economy doesn’t equal the stock market
This may seem perplexing: Alphabet (AKA Google) announced that it would cut 12,000 jobs just days after Microsoft (MSFT) said it would cut 10,000 jobs. And stocks, especially technology stocks, rallied. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.89% today and...
Stocks can’t quite decide what to make of today’s CPI inflation report
Inflation, measured by the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell 0.1% in December versus November. That brought the annual headline inflation rate to 6.5%. That was exactly what a consensus of economists was looking for. The core DPI, which strips out more volatile...
Stocks rise as investors decide slowing wage gains outweigh higher than expected job growth
At the close today, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 2.28% to 38905. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 2.12%. The NASDAQ Composite was higher by 2.56% and the NASDAQ 100 was ahead 2.78%. All this on the heels of a December jobs report from the...
Friday jobs report coming up
It’s deja vu all over again as New York stock markets reopen for trading tomorrow. We ended 2022 waiting for the monthly jobs report from the Labor Department to tell us when slower job growth would signal the potential end to the Federal Reserve’s cycle...
How sticky will inflation prove to be in 2023? Lessons from Christmas shopping say, Stickier than the market now expects (and the Fed hopes)
The big investing and economic question for 2023 is How hard will it be to push inflation down to something near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target? The answer will determine (at least until rising unemployment gets the Fed to blink in the second half of 2023) how...
Powell refused to rule out recession yesterday and today markets sell off
Yesterday, Fed chair Jerome Powell in his post-Fed-meeting press conference said that a recession in 2023 isn’t inevitable. Growth will stay positive next year, he continued, although “it’s not going to feel like a boom.” How much isn’t...
CPI inflation falls more than expected today–market moves higher but not too high ahead of the Fed tomorrow
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI inflation in November climbed at a 7.1% annual rate. Month-to-month inflation rose by just 0.1% from October. Core inflation, that is inflation without energy or food prices, rose at a 6.0% annual rate...
I expect a Santa Claus rally but after that it’s coal in the stocking for the first half of 2023
I expect investors and the stock market to behave as if Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve has settled the important questions of how high (will the Fed take its benchmark Fed Funds interest rate) and how long (will the Fed continue to raise interest...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: Waiting for the Fed
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fourteenth YouTube video: Waiting for the Fed Today’s topic: Waiting for The Fed. We are about a week out from the Fed’s December 14 meeting, where another 50 basis point increase is expected. We’re now in the...
Hot enough to make the Fed say ,”75, please”? November jobs report comes in above forecasts
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 in November, the Labor Department said today. (And the October jobs total was revised upward to a gain of 284,000.) The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.6% in November from October. That was the...
Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure fell in October–but not by much
Inflation progress in October but painfully slow. PCE–personal consumption expenditure–in inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation index, rose at a 6% rate year over year rate through October. That was down from a 6.3% rate in September....
Powell was very clear, but he didn’t add clarity on Fed intentions
In a speech to the Brookings Institution in Washington Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clearly confirmed what other Fed officials have said this week: 1. The Fed will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting by 50 basis points and not 75. That would follow...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: The Fed Is Now On Message–Ask Why
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eleventh YouTube video: The Fed Is Now On Message–Ask Why Today’s topic: The Fed is Now On Message, Ask Why. Last week I spoke about how confusing the Fed’s messaging had been recently, but this week, everybody has...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Is the Fed Confusing or Just Confused?
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninth YouTube video: Is the Fed Confusing or Just Confused? Today’s topic: Is The Fed Confusing, or Just Confused? First, Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed came out with a very mixed message about the Fed’s...
Friday’s release of November jobs report will decide if year-end rally continues
Economists surveyed by FactSet forecast that the November jobs report, set for release Friday morning, will show that the economy added 220,000 new jobs in the month. And that the unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.8% from 3.7% in October If that forecast is...
Fed talks; stocks retreat
Is the Federal Reserve now in the business of talking down stock prices whenever investors get too optimistic about interest rates? It sure looked like it today. Today, Wednesday, November 15, New York Fed President John Williams ended the day’s rally when he...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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