Here’s what I’ve been writing about on my paid sites: How to tell when the bond bear market is finally at the door
Let me share a post that I put up last night on my paid sites about when the great bull market in bonds will finally turn into the great bear market in bonds. Yes, that’s sites. Plural. I’ve been busy building a second site, JugglingWithKnives.com, that...
Ahead of the Fed meeting, Wall Street wonders if Fed might hike 4 times in 2017
With the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates at its Wednesday, Wall Street is re-thinking its assumptions about the Fed’s actions on rates for the rest of 2017. Way back in December when the U.S. central bank raised interest rates for the first time,...
Strong February jobs report removes last doubt on Fed interest rate increase next week
The U.S. economy added 235,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported today. The department’s statisticians also revised January’s job gains upwards to 238,000. Wages grew by a year over year 2.8% The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%. (The U-6, or...
Yellen says March interest rate increase likely to be “appropriate”
Janet Yellen’s speech today in front of the Executives’ Club of Chicago isn’t likely to disappoint those who were thinking that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its March 15 meeting. In her remarks Yellen said that an interest-rate...
This is a big deal: Brainard signs on with the Fed’s sooner rather than later camp
When William Dudley, head of the New York Fed, says it’s time to raise interest rates as he did on Tuesday, the financial markets go “Ho, hum.” Dudley has been in the sooner rather than later camp at the Fed for months. And he’s one of Fed...
Dollar climbs on Trump speech; markets bet on more U.S. growth and sooner rather than later interest rate increase
Today, March 1, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.4%. That was a fourth straight daily gain and let the dollar close in on its highest level since January 27. With the dollar climbing, the yen fell 0.8% and the euro dropped 0.3% to $1.055. Yields on the 10-year...
On Friday the Fed will make it clear what it thought of tonight’s speech by President Trump
President Donald Trump speaks tonight to a joint session of Congress. The expectation is that he will present–in general terms–a budget with a big increase for military spending and cuts to programs at departments such as the Environmental Protection...
In minutes released today Fed says “Fairly soon” but probably not March for next interest rate increase
The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its January 31 to February 1 meeting show the odds still slightly tilted to waiting a bit longer before raising interest rates. The worries that are pushing the Fed toward some delay include uncertainty over the effects of a...Inflation continues to climb, CPI says
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, Â rose in January by a larger than forecast 0.6%. Â That’s a pickup from the 0.3% rise in December and brings the 12-month inflation rate to 2.5%, the highest since March 2012. The core CPI, which excludes...Goldilocks returns with January jobs report
The January jobs report showing a net gain of 227,000 jobs (versus the consensus of 170,000 among economists surveyed by Briefing.com) would have been enough to send stock and Treasury bond prices down and the dollar up because the very strong job creation in January...
Shiller says Dow 20,000 isn’t important and entire rally since 2000 is an illusion
Count on Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance and the winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2013, to rain on the Dow 20,000 parade. Hs latest piece–I read it on The Guardian...
Inflation creeps higher leaving Fed on track to raise interest rates in June
Granted the Consumer Price Index isn’t the inflation index that the Federal Reserve prefers but until the next release of that measure–the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index scheduled for January 30–the CPI is what we’ve got. In...
My forecast of the big events and macro trends for the year ahead: The 12 most dangerous months of 2017
I’ve got good news for all those who didn’t find 2016 volatile enough. Yep, 2017 looks likely to top 2016 for volatility. Hard to imagine, perhaps. Even though the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spent much of the year near multi-year lows, because...
Very preliminary evidence shows higher interest rates slowing U.S. economy
The data actually make sense when you consider the time lags and what these surveys measure. Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes fell in November, unexpectedly, according to the National Association of Realtors in Washington. Pending home sales declined...
Mixed fallout from higher revision to U.S. GDP growth
The news that U.S. economic growth in the third quarter had been revised upward to 3.5% from an earlier 3.2% has been a mixed blessing for the financial markets. Higher growth has helped stocks resume their post-election rally. But it hasn’t helped the bond...
New home sales tomorrow are early test of Fed’s increase in interest rates
Tomorrow, Friday december 23, we get news on new home sales in November. Coming after some market weakness this week and before the long Christmas holiday (financial markets are closed on Monday, December 26), this report has the power to set the tone for a few days....
Will it be two or three interest rate increases in 2017?
At its December 14 meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled that it was thinking about three more interest rate increases in 2017 instead of two. (The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 14. That was the Fed’s first interest rate increase in...
Trumphoria has been driving this rally–how long will that last in the financial markets?
Stock markets typically go gaga over a new president. The election is over and the voters who picked the winner bask in the hope that the candidate will actually keep those campaign promises that earned their votes. This year the market is more gaga than usual. The...
Whoa, Nellie! Fed raises rates today and signals more increases than expected in 2017
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time this year today. Unexpectedly, the Fed’s dot plot shows that Fed members now see three additional interest rate increases in 2017 instead of the two the financial markets had expected...
Last obstacle falls to Fed interest rate increase on December 14–November jobs number almost meets expectations
Good enough for government work. The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department announced today. That was up from a revised net add of 142,000 jobs in October but below the 180,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Official...
U.S. economy shows 3.2% growth in third quarter ahead of Fed meeting on interest rates
The second revision to U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter was the charm. The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in the the three months that ended in September, according to the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 2.9% growth reported in the initial...
Global rout in bonds continues–new danger spot Japan
The rout in global bonds continued today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed 7 basis points to 2.22% as of 3 p.m. New York time. That’s the highest level since January and comes after a jump of 37 basis points last week. Yields on the 10-year German...
Global bond markets decide Trump means more government spending, a big tax cut, bigger deficits, and higher inflation–and increased odds that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than expected just last week
Global bond markets fell to the tune of a more than $1 trillion loss this week after Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election. The market value of the Bank of America’s Global Broad Market Index, which tracks 24,000 bonds around the world, fell...
Economy adds 161,000 jobs in October; September revised up to 191,000; Fed on track to December rate increase
The U.S. economy added 161,000 jobs in October and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the September job total upwards to 191,000. The original September report put the month’s job gains at 156,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting the economy...
Fed holds rates steady but says case for December move stronger
Odds for a December interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve climbed to 78% today after the U.S. central bank held short-term rates steady at 0.25%-0.50% at its Wednesday meeting, but said that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to...
Selling my Treasury ETF because my scenario on global central bank policy was wrong
When I bought shares of the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) back on June 28, 2016, it was in the belief that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates (as early as September or as late as December) while other central banks remained committed to their...
Advance warning: New York markets are going to have a lot to digest when they open Friday morning
Earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) after the close today. Earnings from ExxonMobil(XOM) before the open tomorrow. The advance report on third quarter U.S. GDP at 8:30 a.m. New York time tomorrow. Yep, the financial markets in New York are going to...
3 moves for a vulnerable market
If this market is vulnerable, what should I do? I’ve been asked that question repeatedly since I first called this market vulnerable back in my October 11 post “Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable.” To answer that–the what should I do...
Mild inflation numbers lead to mild market gains
The headline consumer price index, the government announced this morning, rose 0.3% in September. That follows on a 0.2% increase in August. The headline rate of inflation is now 1.5% year over year. That’s the highest rate of inflation for this number since...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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