Odds of a Fed interest rate increase move up–for December
Yesterday’s report of a slight uptick in inflation has pushed odds higher for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The report, however, had no effect on odds in the Fed Funds Futures market for an increase at the Fed’s September 20...
Yellen tells Trump exactly what he’ll get if he reappoints her to head the Federal Reserve
If President Donald Trump reappoints current Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen to a new term in February 2018, no one will be able to say truthfully that he didn’t know exactly what kind of chair he would be getting. Not after her speech today at the Kansas...
Market sinks; volatility climbs on strong economic news, D.C. chaos
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed down 1.54% today and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.94%. Gold picked up 0.87%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) broke above 15 again, soaring 31.94% on the day. There was just too much for the markets to...
Inflation holds steady at annual 1.7% rate
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July from June. CPI headline inflation is now running at a 1.7% annual rate, below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% inflation. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in July and is also...
Stronger than expected July jobs report doesn’t change market thinking on interest rates
The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 181,000 net new jobs in the month. Government statisticians revised the June jobs report up to 231.000 new jobs from 222,000. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.3%...
What happened in the markets (and economy) last week–and what it means for August and September
Let’s try to put together a few events from last week into a coherent (or, if that’s too much to hope, at least a semi-coherent) explanation for where the equity market stands now. What events, you ask? How about Friday’s report on second quarter GDP...
Q2 GDP growth worse than hoped but better than it was last quarter
The first reading on second quarter U.S. GDP growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis puts growth at 2.6% year over year. That’s below the consensus of 2.8% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. But an important advance from the growth rate in the...
How the log jam among Republicans in Congress works from here on the budget and tax cuts
You can never be absolutely certain a bill has gone down to final defeat in this Republican-controlled Congress, but it certainly looks, as of late Tuesday night, that the Republican effort to repeal and  replace  Obamacare  has died in the Senate–and that a...
Inflation at the wholesale level edges up slightly
A day after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen boosted markets with her worries about slow inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released numbers on inflation at the producer level–otherwise known as wholesale inflation–that showed inflation is weak...
Yellen doesn’t say much but bond market likes what it thinks it heard
It’s not much to hang a rally on, but the Treasury and stock markets moved up after Fed chair Janet Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee today that “the federal funds rate may not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy...
Worry about central banks gains weight
Today it’s JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon telling a conference in Paris that the unwinding of central bank bond-buying programs is an unprecedented challenge that may be more disruptive than people think. Tomorrow (and Thursday) it’s Federal Reserve...
June jobs gains beat projections but where are the wage increases?
The U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs in June. That was a big increase from the 152,000 jobs added in May, which was itself an upward revision from the initially reported 138,000. (And remember how disappointing that was.) Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had...
On Monday Manufacturing ISM blew out projections for June
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for June released Monday morning climbed to 57.8 from 54.9 in May. That was the highest level of the index, where anything above 50 signals expansion, since 2014. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had...
Today’s positive economic data help stabilize stocks
Lots of economic data this morning. None fall into the earthshaking category. But the general picture is positive. And that has helped stabilize stocks in New York. Â Economic Summary: Personal Income outpaces spending in May, Chicago PMI well above expectations On the...
Existing home sales say Fed hasn’t wrecked U.S. economy in a week
Reassuring. Existing home sales in May rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.62 million. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a 5.52 million annual rate. The May total is up from April’s revised total of 5.56 million and is 2.7% above the...
Maybe just enough economic data this week to concern a market worried about growth
This week is a kind of mini-referendum on the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy, and oil prices. Think of it one where some chickens come home to roost. (Hence the photo.) It’s not a big week for economic data but what there is is suggestive. On Wednesday, for...
Regional Fed banks cut their forecasts for second and third quarter U.S. GDP growth
What? Did the regional Federal Reserve banks all miss their money coffee? Their GDP forecasts released today all sure were grumpy. The most visible of the bunch, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast calls for 2.9% growth in the second quarter. The forecast was...
Federal Reserve raises interest rates as expected; talks of reducing balance sheet starting by end of 2017
No surprises on interest rates. A mild surprise on reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. As expected–the Fed Funds Futures market was giving odds of 99.6% that there would be a 25 basis point interest rate increase–the Federal Reserve raised...
Market slips into neutral ahead of Fed interest rate decision tomorrow
Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you know that the Federal Reserve is set to announce a decision on interest rates after tomorrow’s meeting of its Open Market Committee. Â And you also know that the Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark...
June 14 interest rate increase would be non-event
The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on June 14. And it’s a strong consensus, to put it mildly with the CME Fed Watch tool calculating that the Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 95.8% chance of an interest rate...
Initial claims report good enough for June interest rate increase
Nothing in the weekly report on initial claims for unemployment to set the heart a twitter. But the numbers look good enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track for a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its June 14 meeting. Initial claims for the week ended May...
Initial claims for unemployment come in below forecast; leave Fed on track for June 14 interest rate increase
Initial claims for unemployment climbed by 1,000 go 234,000 in the week ended May 20, the Labor Department announced today. The 234,000 total was below the 238,000 forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The foiur-week moving average of new claims, fell to...
Fed minutes from May point to June interest rate increase
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 3 meeting, released today, point to another interest rate increase, the second for 2017, at the central bank’s June 14 meeting. According to the minutes, “most participants judged that if economic...
April new home sales disappoint
New home sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000. That was well below the consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com for annualized sales of 605,000. The April annualized rate was down 11.4% from March. The housing market...
Amidst the circus don’t forget Fed minutes on Wednesday and revised GDP on Friday
I’ll grant you that it’s hard, very hard, right now to pay attention to economic fundamentals. There’s the upcoming OPEC decision on oil production cuts, President Trump’s first overseas tour, the continuing circus in Washington and more. But...
Fed has June 14 interest rate increase in its crosshairs
The Federal Reserve is certainly behaving like it will raise interest rates another 25 basis points at the June 14 meeting of the Open Market Committee. The U.S. central bank raised its target for the Fed funds rate to 0.75%-1% at its March meeting. The financial...
Watch out for volatility around Friday’s CPI inflation report
Friday’s Consumer Price Index release will have extraordinary power. Maybe even enough to move the financial markets. Ordinarily, the monthly report of inflation in the Consumer Price Index isn’t a market-shaking event. The CPI isn’t the inflation...
U.S. GDP growth rate a tepid 0.7% in first quarter
The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 0.7% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported this morning. That’s the slowest pace in three years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for growth of better than 1%. The Atlanta...
Jobs report not too hot, not too cold
So how many lives does this Goldilocks market have, anyway? This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added just 98,000 jobs in March. That was the weakest gain since May 2015 and way under the 180,000 jobs expected by economists...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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