It’s important to remember on this down, down, down day that an earnings growth slump in 2019 and a 2019 recession aren’t the same thing
It’s hard to take a step back on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial average closed down more than 700 points (and 3.10%), but that’s exactly what I’m going to suggest. The huge sell off was driven by three major factors in my opinion. First, the...
Fed’s Powell speaks softly; stocks roar higher
Sometimes the market hears what it wants to hear and then storms higher (or lower) on what is little more than a hint. In the short run that doesn’t much matter since the oftentimes huge gains are real and investors can and do take them to the bank. In the...
So much big picture uncertainty
For this short holiday trading week, I’m expecting volatility in asset classes that range from oil to stocks to the U.S. dollar, as traders and investors try to figure out how to “price in” a metric ton of macro uncertainty scheduled for the next...
Second Fed voice sounds cautious note on global growth, pace of interest rate increases
The Fed is sounding less aggressive about raising interest rates in 2019. Today, Friday, November 16, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that the Federal Reserve has to factor the possibility that the global economy is slowing into its decision on how...
Another sign of coming inflation to worry the Federal Reserve
The 3.1% year over year growth in average hourly wages reported for October is, by itself, enough to convince the Federal Reserve that an increase in inflation, long awaited with concern, is visible on the horizon. Today’s jump in the Producer Price Index (PPI)...
Fed’s “footnotes” in yesterday’s minutes from the September meeting worry markets
Reading the fine print is good advice when it comes to minutes from meetings of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee too. So far today, October 18, the financial markets are in a slight retreat because of notes released yesterday along with the minutes of...
Bond market takes a bite out of stocks today
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose another basis point today, after climbing yesterday, to 3.19%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed to 2.88%, up 4 basis points. A lower than expected report on initial claims for unemployment helped fuel the climb in yields....
Mortgage rates and odds of December interest rate increase climb after Fed meeting
Yesterday meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee ended with the committee raising the short-term Fed Funds benchmark rate 25 basis points and signaling an intention of raising rates again in December and then three more times in 2019. Yesterday...
Fed raises interest rates, locks in December increase, signals 3 moves in 2019
No surprise on a September interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve today–but some very aggressive signals on policy into 2019. The 25 basis point increase today raised the Fed Funds rate to a target of 2% to 2.25%. The economy remains solid; Â job growth...
Oil is a story today, but Treasury market is “the” story
Oil prices are up again this morning with the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate ahead 0.21% to $72.23 a barrel as of noon New York time. International benchmark Brent has gained 1.02% to $82.03 a barrel. But “the” story today, I’d argue, is the...
Battle over bond yields, interest rates shifts to 2019
Remember back at the beginning of 2018 when bond investors and traders couldn’t agree on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates two times, or three times or four times in the year? (It wound up being four.) Well, we’re looking at a replay...
My “best-estimate” scenario for the U.S. stock market for the next 60 days
Let’s start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the...
Good August jobs number cements Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September (and probably December)
The U.S. economy added a net 201,000 jobs in August. That was above the projection of 187,000 from economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Government statisticians revised the July job gains to 170,000 from 153,000. The official unemployment rate remained at 3.9%. So why...
Core consumer inflation climbs at a 2.3% annual rate in July numbers
Granted the Federal Reserve watches the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index to measure inflation, but the big jump in the July Consumer Price Index should remove the last doubts (if any remain) about a September interest rate increase from the Fed. The headline...
Fed statement today cements September interest rate increase
Today Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate at 1.75% to 2.00% and described the U.S. economy in terms that make an interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 26 meeting a virtual certainty (absent some startling news event). The CME...
4.1% GDP growth isn’t enough to make stock market happy
U.S. GDP (in real terms) grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter. The economy hasn’t seen 4% growth in the memory of most Wall Street analysts (who do, I admit, have short memories), but it still wasn’t enough. Economists...
Dollar falls as President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve policy again
For a second straight day President Donald Trump has tweeted out criticism of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision to raise interest rates. In his tweets today the President wrote: “China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their...
Fed chief’s Senate talk calms markets after Netflix guidance disappointment
In his semiannual Senate testimony on the state of the U.S. economy this morning Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave the U.S. economy a strong thumbs up–at least if the tariff war doesn’t hit the global economy too badly. (Powell completed his...
The good news in the bad news of today’s jobs numbers
You ‘ve got to remember that at this point in the Federal Reserve cycle good is bad and bad is good. So, by itself the good news in the June jobs report this morning would be counted as bad news. The economy added 213,000 jobs in June, well above the 195,000...
As expected, the Fed raises interest rates; as suspected, the Fed signals 4 increases in 2018 instead of 3
No surprise here: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short term interest rate by 25 basis points to 2% today from 1.75%. It was the second interest rate increase of 2018. But the Fed also signaled that it was more likely to raise rates two more times in 2018 for...
Moving on: With North Korea summit done, markets focus on Central Bank Week
The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un produced nothing of import, apparently meeting financial market expectations for “much ado about nothing,” and all eyes on Wall Street have shifted to what I’m...
An interest rate sign of our times–3% on a CD
So there I was, minding my own business, walking down Broadway in my neighborhood, and what do I see in the window of a local bank: An offer for 3% on a five-year CD. Now this wasn’t in the window of one of the megabanks that dominate this sector in New York....
U.S. economy adds 223,000 jobs in May; odds of June interest rate increase bounce back
The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in May, well ahead of the 190,000 gain expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com Revised figures for April showed the economy adding slightly fewer jobs, a revised 159,000 new jobs versus an initial 164,000. The official...
Federal Reserve minutes to the rescue
The release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting turned markets from red to green this afternoon. The day had started off with just about everything in retreat on an avalanche of disquieting news. President Donald Trump seemed to back away from...
Economy adds a middling 164,000 jobs in April
It all depends on your benchmark. There was good news in today’s jobs report for April since the economy added 164,000 jobs, up from a revised 135,000 jobs in March. So yay! The jobs market rebounded from March weakness. And there was bad news in the report...
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, seems to signal continued gradual interest rate increases for rest of 2018
As expected by the financial markets, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting of the Open Market Committee. As expected the Fed didn’t really clarify its stance on inflation and interest rate increases, acknowledging that...
So how is the economy (remember the economy?) anyway?
Let’s take a look at the economy before this week gets sucked into the black hole of tariffs and trade wars. As you’ll remember when last we left the U.S. economy–on Friday morning–it had just reported a disappointing addition to 103,000 net...
Back to normal today? And a reminder of what normal is
With all available officials on deck today in Beijing and Washington to talk down fears of a trade war and to talk up prospects for trade talks, the U.S. financial markets have returned to “normal.” And what is “normal” right now? A 0.47% gain...
Fed raises interest rates and marks steeper path on future increases
Well, it wasn’t unexpected so stocks didn’t plunge. But it is still close to what the financial markets feared. Today, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short term interest rate another 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.  And forecast a...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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