Are we headed into an era of longterm deflation? Will the Fed say it’s worried about deflation after tomorrow’s meeting?
As long as I can remember (which is only back about 40 years when it comes to the economy) the worry has been inflation. From the stagflation of the late 1970s, to Paul Volcker’s brutal but successful assault on inflation in the early 1980s, to the seemingly...
Let’s hear it for stability–thank goodness, so far today is dull on the U.S. market
No big moves. No major disruptions. No threats of meltdowns. Today has been a welcome breather, a bit of stability, for market that’s had more than its share of excitement this week. So far. It’s only 1:30 p.m. in New York. And we could see selling or...
Federal Reserve unveils another $2 trillion loan program for businesses, states, and cities
Saying that the U.S. economy is deteriorating “with alarming speed,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a new Fed program to supply more than $2 trillion in new loans to small, medium and large companies as well as cash-strapped states and...
The coronavirus rescue bill leverages the Fed by $4 trillion to head off a credit crisis–you think it might be serious? Look at the credit card market
On top of the $2.2 billion that the Coronavirus rescue bill now in front of the House of Representatives allocated to checks to individuals, loans and grants to companies, extra unemployment insurance and more, the bill also gave the Treasury the go ahead to backstop...
Fed to provide “infinite” money to credit markets
Today, March 23, the Federal Reserve announced that it would backstop all credit markets in the United States without limits. The Fed said it would purchase Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning.” In...
Fed move leaves yen as last safe haven standing
The Japanese yen soared 2% Monday after the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut interest rates and add $700 billion to its balance sheet by buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The dollar was down 0.66% Monday against the DXY Spot Index, a basket...
More liquidity from the Fed helps reassure financial markets
The Federal Reserve is launching a special fund to keep credit flowing in the short-term commercial paper market that many companies use to raise cash for day-to-day operations. (Commercial paper generally matures in fewer than 270 days.) Starting today the Fed will...
Think the Fed got everyone’s attention with a Sunday night interest rate cut to 0%?
On Sunday night the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut interest rates to 0% (actually a policy range of 0% to 0.25%) from the current 1.00% to 1.25% range. The central bank will also resume its program of quantitative easing by buying at least $700 billion in...
Fed rides to the rescue–and stocks are still down almost 8% at 2:30 p.m. in New York
The Federal Reserve announced this morning that it would inject $1.5 trillion into short-term bank to bank lending markets today and tomorrow. The U.S. central bank will offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation at 1:30 p.m. and repeat the exercise tomorrow,...
Oops!”Emergency” interest rate cut spurs U.S. stock sell off as Fed creates negative feedback loop
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced an “emergency” 50 basis point cut to its benchmark interest rate. The cut left the Fed benchmark with a range of 1% to 1.25%. The move comes ahead of the Fed’s regular meeting on March 18. The interest rate cut,...
For another day, at least, financial markets continue to believe in central bank fairy dust
Financial markets moved higher on news that finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven economies will hold a teleconference tomorrow, Tuesday, on how to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. The expectation is that central banks in Japan, England,...
For another day the Federal Reserve rallies the market
It was just four sentences–“The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will...
Jim’s Extra!! Next big date in the coronavirus selloff? March 18
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
It’s still a “Central banks to the rescue” mentality in the financial markets
U.S. stocks were up strongly today on news that the central banks of the United States and China were likely to continue to provide cheap–and cheaper–liquidity to financial markets and economies. In minutes of its January 29 Open Market Committee meeting...
Unsustainable debt a danger? But it’s so far away, the markets say
Nobody wants to hear that U.S. government and consumer debt aren’t sustainable. Not President Donald Trump. Not the financial markets. Today, February 11, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that it was important...
Here’s why U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs in January, well above projections but U.S. stocks closed down
The U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs in January, well above the average 175,000 jobs added per month in 2019. And still markets fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 0.54% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.94%. The NASADAQ Composite...
GDP up at 2.1% rate in 4th quarter but weakness emerges (or continues) in the numbers
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That matches the growth rate for the third quarter and is slightly above the 2% growth predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Full-year GDP growth finished at 2.3% in 2019, the lowest of...
Gold in ETFs nears record; what’s next for the yellow metal?
Gold held by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) hit the highest level in seven years on Tuesday as investors and traders piled into the traditional hedge against uncertainty and stock market volatility. Worldwide gold holdings in ETFs rose to 2,561.2 tons as of Tuesday, the...
There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
U.S. economy adds 145,000 jobs in December, misses economist forecasts
The U.S. economy added 145,000 jobs in December That did set a record of 10 years of job growth for the economy. But the 145,000 job growth in December was below the 256,000 added in November and below the 160,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. (I would...
Inflation isn’t exactly dead
Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning...Fed keeps interest rates steady; Treasury yields and dollar slip slightly
As expected the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5% to 1.75% today. The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials pointed to no change in interest rates through 2020. “Our economic outlook remains a favorable one despite global...
Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You’re aware, I hope, of the idea that there’s an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like...
Fed report notes that continuing low interest rates could threaten U.S. (and global) financial security.
Well, duh. Yesterday Fed chairman Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee that”we’re in a world of much lower interest rates.” He seemed to shrug his shoulders at the prospect as if to say, Hey that’s what it is and the Fed doesn’t...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning’s testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. “We see the current...
The Fed interest rate pause that …
Distresses? Refreshes? Isn’t important? Today, as expected the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The Fed lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. At the same time the Fed signaled that it...
Fed minutes from September show debate on how low interest rates should go
Here’s the most important point, to me, from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September 18 meeting released today. At the meeting the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2019. “Several participants suggested that the...
The Powell Put underneath the financial markets and the U.S. economy just got stronger
It quacks like quantitative easing. It walks like quantitative easing. But it’s not quantitative easing. According to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell anyway. In a speech today, October 8, to the National Association for Business Economics, Powell said the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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