10-year Treasury yield hits 1.61%–bond market moves now driving stock prices
Yields on U.S. Treasuries hit 1.61% early today before pulling back slightly to 1.51% as of 3 p.m. New York time. It’s not just the rise in yields or even the magnitude of the increase that has so disconcerted the bond market today, February 25. It’s the...
Fed chair Powell calls unemployment numbers garbage; says real rate is 10% not 6.3%
In a speech on Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome H. Powell said that the unemployment rate in January was “close to 10%, not the 6.3% rate reported by the Labor Department last week. Part of the problem is a misclassification of unemployed workers as employed....
Yield on 10-year Treasury climbs to 1.16%–time to rethink some bond market assumptions and to start some selling
A year ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 1.59%. From that point yields fell, leading to big gains for Treasuries and other bonds. (The Shares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) gained 10.01% in 2020, for example.) Yields were down to 0.73% as of the...
Ho, hum: Another day another stock market record
Stocks climbed for a sixth straight day–the longest string of gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 since August and with the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning in its best start for a February since 1931. The S&P 500 finished the day ahead 0.34%...
Watch my new YouTube Video: Trading Rationally in an Irrational Market
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The ninth YouTube video “Trading Rationally in an Irrational Market” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Watch my new New YouTube video: Forget GameStop; It’s the Fed’s bubble to burst.
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The eighth YouTube video “Forget Gamestope; It’s the Fed’s Bubble to Burst” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video....
Yields on the 10-year Treasury pull back a bit in today’s auction
For a day, at least, the seemingly inexorable climb in Treasury yields stopped. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is up 23 basis points in the last month, dropped back to 1.13%, a retreat of 2 basis points. (It takes 100 basis points to make up one percentage...
Watch my YouTube video on why this very stretched market will hang in for another six months
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The fifth YouTube video on why this very stretched market will hang in for another six months went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. (Note...
Inflation worries? You’ve got to be kidding but bond market starts to price in higher interest rates
The stock market is in the midst of euphoria at the prospect that unified Democratic control of the White House and Congress will mean more fiscal stimulus–those $2,000 checks for a start–increased aid to cities, and increased spending (maybe) on...
Fed stands pat on interest rates, bond buying–and again expresses worry about coronavirus and lack of a stimulus bill
Today, November 5, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee decided to keep the target for the federal funds interest rate in the 0% to 0.25% range where it’s been since March. And to continue bond purchases at the current rate of $120 billion a month....
Stock market rethinks its initial enthusiasm for Fed outlook
At 2:30 p.m. New York time, about the time the Federal Reserve issued its press statement on today’s meeting of the Fed’s interest rate setting body the Open Market Committee and about the time when Fed chair Jerome Powell issued his comments on the...
Powell announces anticipated shift in policy framework at the Fed yesterday: 0% for longer
As anticipated in Wednesday’s rally–the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.73%–Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday announced that going forward the Fed would let inflation rise to above its...
Don’t fight the Fed? Well, maybe
The advice “Don’t fight the Fed” makes sense. If the Fed is flooding the financial markets with cash, then buy and follow along as the Fed makes money available to drive up asset prices. If the Fed is tightening, reducing the available supply of...
Fed’s stress test for 34 big U.S. banks says no share buybacks, no increases in dividends
After the close for the New York markets, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its newest round of stress tests on 34 big U.S. banks. For the first time, the Fed added scenarios for a V-shaped recession and recovery; a slower, U-shaped recession and recovery;...
Big banks face Fed stress test this week
What’s a week without a good chance that the Federal Reserve will roil the stock market? On Thursday June 25, the Federal Reserve will release results of its annual bank stress tests on June 25. At stake will be bank plans for dividend payouts. Banks that...
Fed pledges to hold interest rates near 0% through 2022–stocks dip anyway
Could this be the first signs that the financial markets are questioning Goldilocks? Investors and traders heard almost everything they could have hoped to hear from the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting Open Market Committee meeting today. Sure, the Fed...
Why today’s good news shock on jobs comes at a really unfortunate time
I’d argue the last thing we needed today was good news. In case you’re been hiding under a rock, you know that the economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. (Read my immediately prior post for a run down of...
Wall Street starts to watch something called the market price/liquidity ratio to justify this rally
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index may be closing in on the February 19 record closing high of 3386.15–about 11.2% from the Friday, May 29, close at 3044.31, but some Wall Street strategists see more rally ahead–with a close at the end of...
Even after yesterday’s rip-roaring gains, the S&P 500 is stuck–so what comes next?
Yesterday, May 18, the Standard & Poor’s 500 closed at 2953. We’ve been here before. Several times, in fact. On May 8, the index closed at 2929.80. On April 29, the close was 2939. With the 200-day moving average at 2998.,56, even yesterday’s...
Stocks roar ahead on perfect storm of good news
As of 1 p.m. New York time today, May 18, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is up 3.17% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is higher by 3.60%. The NASDAQ Composite has climbed 2.47% and the Russell 2000 small cap index is ahead 5.29%. The iShares Emerging Markets...
Now it’s the Fed’s Powell’s turn to push stocks lower, urge Congress to provide more coronavirus money
Yesterday, I argued that the barrage of cautionary comments from Federal Reserve officials seemed designed to talk stock prices lower and to push Congress toward a new bigger coronavirus rescue package. (Why might the Fed want to slow the current rally? The only...
Federal Reserve puts its corporate-bond-buying vehicle in motion
On March 23, the Federal Reserve announced that it would create a facility to buy corporate bunds and ETFs tracking the corporate bond market. That facility remained an all-talk/no-action vehicle until today when the New York Federal Reserve Bank announced that its...
The Fed speaks and speaks and speaks this week: Will all the words push Congress on more spending for coronavirus rescue?
Due to a quirk in the Federal Reserve calendar, the central bank doesn’t meet in May. (Next meeting June 10; last meeting April 29.) That means the Fed has lots of time to jawbone the financial markets and Congress in an effort to get Washington to provide more...
Another reason stocks are rallying? A belief in negative interest rates by early 2021
The Fed funds futures market, which trades bets on where the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rates are headed, has rallied this week to send prices for futures contracts in early 2021 above 100. Above 100 traders are pricing in negative interest rates from...
What if the helicopter trillions don’t work this time?
Drop money from the sky. Lots and lots of it. Enough to shock a struggling economy out of a deep slump. Milton Friedman coined the term. In Friedman’s scenario the helicopters appear unexpectedly ( I don’t know if they play Wagner) and just dump money on...
Fed keeps policy stable, says 0% rates as far as the eye can see
As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates at their current level of 0%-0.25%. And there were very few changes in the central bank’s language. But a few subtle shifts are worth noting, I believe. The Fed said in early April that “We have also committed...
Are we headed into an era of longterm deflation? Will the Fed say it’s worried about deflation after tomorrow’s meeting?
As long as I can remember (which is only back about 40 years when it comes to the economy) the worry has been inflation. From the stagflation of the late 1970s, to Paul Volcker’s brutal but successful assault on inflation in the early 1980s, to the seemingly...
Let’s hear it for stability–thank goodness, so far today is dull on the U.S. market
No big moves. No major disruptions. No threats of meltdowns. Today has been a welcome breather, a bit of stability, for  market that’s had more than its share of excitement this week. So far. It’s only 1:30 p.m. in New York. And we could see selling or...
Federal Reserve unveils another $2 trillion loan program for businesses, states, and cities
Saying that the U.S. economy is deteriorating “with alarming speed,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell unveiled a new Fed program to supply more than $2 trillion in new loans to small, medium and large companies as well as cash-strapped states and...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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