Adding Invesco Dollar Bullish Fund ETF to three portfolios
In my July 7 YouTube video: “Quick Pick UUP” I added the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) to my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. (To replace the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) in that portfolio. More on that in another post today.)...
Please Watch My YouTube Video: Strong Dollar Hits Stocks–3 Things to Do
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fourth YouTube video “Strong Dollar Hits Stocks–3 Things to Do” went up today. The biggest factor driving falling prices in commodities (ahem, oil) is the rising strength of the dollar. Believe it or not, the US economy is...
With luck and slight of hand, Draghi restarts quantitative easing at European Central Bank
If it had come to a formal vote, there’s a good chance that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would have faced defeat in his efforts to revive quantitative easing at the central bank. But the bank doesn’t usually hold a formal vote on a issue...
The “other” central bank: Will the ECB restart quantitative easing on Thursday?
Will the European Central Bank revive its program of bond-buying when it meets on Thursday? The bank only ended this program of quantitative easing in December. The markets are currently pricing in a new program of 40 billion euros a month in bond purchases–plus...
Boris Johnson loses working majority mid-speech to Parliament
It was the kind of session that only Parliament can produce: jeering, catcalls, and mid-speech by Prime Minister Boris Johnson the dramatic resignation of a Conservative member of Parliament who got up from his seat and walked over to join his new party the Liberal...
EuroZone economy is leading global slowdown
The 19-country EuroZone economy could expand by just 1% in 2019 with industrial production falling at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis. This time it’s the core economies of Germany and France, which together make up about half of the EuroZone...
One consequence of the change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen...
One more for the list: ECB starts countdown to euro decision on December 13
On December 13 the European Central Bank will decide whether to cap its $2.9 trillion program of bond buying as planned. The bank had decided that Europe’s economy was strong enough for the central bank to wind down its purchases of bonds that have kept interest...
Markets decide they have nothing to fear except Treasury auctions, Italian budget, and U.S.-China trade war
Actually, considering the list of fears today, it’s kind of remarkable that the U.S. stock market hasn’t fallen farther. (The U.S. bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday.) In the EuroZone the confrontation between the Italian government and the...
A slip in the dollar and a bounce in the euro
The dollar is down today against the euro and some emerging market currencies, such as the Turkish lira, are rallying. The news ostensibly behind the move is some data indicating that U.S. inflation slipped in August. The logic goes that with inflation sliding the...
Dollar falls as President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve policy again
For a second straight day President Donald Trump has tweeted out criticism of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision to raise interest rates. In his tweets today the President wrote: “China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their...
Is a slow-motion credit crunch already here?
Thanks, folks. For weeks now I’ve been writing (especially in a series of special reports on my subscription site JubakAM.com) about an impending credit crunch that would produce a reset (a polite term for a big whoosh down the toilet) in global asset prices....
Markets relax, a bit, on Italy crisis
The consensus in financial markets today seems to be that yesterday’s drop on fears that Italy was headed to a crisis that could shake the euro were a bit overstated. This isn’t to say that markets have concluded that the crisis is over–or never...
European Central Bank decides to split the difference on ending bond purchases
At its meeting today the European Central Bank decided to buy fewer bonds each month but for more months. Monthly purchases will be cut to 30 billion euros ($35 billion) from 60 billion euros beginning in January. But the bank will extend its bond purchases until...
Nothing but good news for markets from European Central Bank today
At today’s meeting the European Central Bank announced that it would leave interest rates at their current low levels and continue to buy debt assets at the current monthly rate. Â In his post-meeting press conference ECB president Mario Draghi noted that...
European Central Bank moves a bit closer to ending its low interest rate policy–at least in its rhetoric
At today’s meeting The European Central Bank dropped language saying that interest rates might fall further from its post-meeting statement. Â In April the bank had said that interest rates would remain at “present or lower levels for an extended period of...
See why I think this Finland ETF is the best way to get exposure to Europe’s faster growth and the euro by signing up for your 30-days of free access to my paid JubakAM site. Hurry, though, there are only 9 days left to my 20th anniversary offer
What are you waiting for? You’ve only got 9 days left to take shameless advantage of me. To celebrate the 20th anniversary of JubakPicks.com I’m giving away 30-days of free access to my subscription site JubakAM.comm but that offer is only good until the...
Macron swamps Le Pen but Euro markets retreat
And now comes the hard part. Centrist newcomer Emmanuel Macron trounced far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s vote for president of France. Macron won 66.1% of the vote in the two-person run off. The political and business leaders of France and the...
Winners from the Fed’s move on Wednesday
The jump in the price of gold and the even huger spike in the prices of gold mining stocks tells us something really important about how the financial markets see the Federal Reserve’s action and rhetoric on Wednesday, March 15. On Wednesday gold for April...
Markets say the European Central Bank is about a year behind the Fed in raising interest rates
Ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank futures markets have started to raise the odds that the bank will start raising its benchmark deposit interest rate beginning in April 2018. The market was putting the odds of an April increase at 20% last...
Dollar climbs on Trump speech; markets bet on more U.S. growth and sooner rather than later interest rate increase
Today, March 1, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.4%. That was a fourth straight daily gain and let the dollar close in on its highest level since January 27. With the dollar climbing, the yen fell 0.8% and the euro dropped 0.3% to $1.055. Yields on the 10-year...
Can the EuroZone kick its debt problem down the road again? To where?
Remember May 2010? That was month of the first Greek debt bailout by the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank. $145 billion over three years. July 2011 saw another bailout. Then there was the October 2011 50% write down of...
More trouble ahead for the euro in Dutch and French elections
So far the euro is hanging tough and the French financial markets are doing better than I expected. But I think that’s likely to change in the next four to six weeks. In Dutch elections on March 15Â Geert Wilders and his far-right Freedom Party look likely to win...
Greek default crisis again? IMF threatens to pull out of bailout package unless EU writes down debt
We’ve been here before. So many times. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) board meets today to discuss whether it will continue to participate in the Greek bailout program. This is the third bailout program for Greece in seven years. The issues are...
European Central Bank stands pat; Draghi urges Germany to have patience
If it sounds a little simplistic to you as monetary policy, that may be because it is. Confronted with German criticism of the asset buying stimulus program at the European Central Bank and German fears of resurgent inflation, bank president Mario Draghi advised...
Trump talks down dollar–and U.S. stocks
The U.S. dollar fell today after President-elect Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. currency was too high–in part because China holds down the price of the yuan. On the comments the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 1.1% as of noon New...
There goes the neighborhood: In one interview President-elect Trump bashes both EU and NATO
In an interview with the London Times and Germany’s Bild President-elect Donald Trump managed to dismiss the European Union as a tool for expanding German exports and to label NATO as obsolete. Trump praised the Brexit vote saying that people “want their...
The inflation squeeze on the European Central Bank just got tighter
In my macro look forward at 2017 “My-forecast-of-the-big-events-and-macro-trends-for-the-year-ahead-the-12-most-dangerous-months-of-2017/” I flagged the lose/lose decision facing the European Central Bank in the year ahead. The bank’s current policy...
My forecast of the big events and macro trends for the year ahead: The 12 most dangerous months of 2017
I’ve got good news for all those who didn’t find 2016 volatile enough. Yep, 2017 looks likely to top 2016 for volatility. Hard to imagine, perhaps. Even though the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spent much of the year near multi-year lows, because...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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