Please Watch My YouTube Video: “Two Ideas for Shorting Emerging Markets”
My one-hundred-and-eighth YouTube video “Two Ideas for Shorting Emerging Markets” went up today. I’m firmly in the negative camp on emerging markets. If you want to profit from the downward move in these markets, I see two options: one is investing...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week–The Global Debt Bomb Is Ticking
My one-hundred-and-fifty-third YouTube video “Trend of the Week: The Global Debt Bomb is Ticking” went up today. Overly dramatic? I don’t think so. In this week’s video, I look at the few countries that are leading what looks to me like a...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week India’s at a Danger Point
My one-hundred-and-fifty-sixth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: India’s at a Danger Point” went up today. This week’s Trend video is a follow-up to my piece on the “Global Debt Bomb” from last week. Maybe default by Sri Lania or...
More hedges against Russia/Ukraine conflict and higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAM.Com and JugglingWithKnives.com. Over the weekend I recommended using natural gas stocks as a way to hedge the risk of a Russia/Ukraine conflict and ensuing sanctions against Russia. I recommended shares of...
What’s ahead for the stock market (and investors) in 2022? Here’s what to look for to drive the year
Looking ahead at 2022, it’s not too hard to list the forces that will drive the financial markets. Putting those forces together and blocking out a schedule for their effects on the stock market? Well, that’s a lot harder. But let me try. Here’s my...
China Evergrande contagion spreading to rest of Chinese economy
In September new home prices across 70 cities in China fell for the first time in six years. The drop of 0.08% is more significant than the absolute number seems because China counts on property-related industries for almost a quarter of its GDP. And because real...
If China’s growth is slowing, can the U.S. and other economies be far behind?
That’s the worry set off by the announcement last week by the People’s Bank of China that it would cut the reserve requirement for China’s big banks by 50 basis points. While economists had been expecting the move from the People’s Bank, they...
Watch my new YouTube video: “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see...
IMF raises China growth forecast on announcement of Part 1 U.S.-China trade deal
The new head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has told China’s Caixin Global news service, that she expects the Part 1 agreement to boost China’s GDP growth to 6% in 2020. That would be an increase from the IMF’s previous...
Second Fed voice sounds cautious note on global growth, pace of interest rate increases
The Fed is sounding less aggressive about raising interest rates in 2019. Today, Friday, November 16, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that the Federal Reserve has to factor the possibility that the global economy is slowing into its decision on how...
Buying Naspers in my Jubak Picks Portfolio
As I wrote in my Special Report: “10 Picks for the Emerging Markets Bounce,” (on my subscription JubakAm.com site) I’m adding Naspers (NPSNY) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. It’s unlikely that you know much about this South African Internet...
Buying Tencent Holdings for my Jubak Picks Portfolio
Today (or tomorrow morning, actually, October 2) I’m adding Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) to my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio. (The stock is already a member of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. As I wrote in my Special Report: 10 Picks for the Emerging Markets...
Now who’s worried about a trade war? Certainly not buyers of U.S. stocks today
Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both hit record highs. The NASDAQ Composite was up 0.99% as of 2 p.m. New York time. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) advanced 0.95%. West Texas Intermediate crude...
China says it won’t intentionally devalue yuan in response to U.S. tariffs
Just hours after the Trump administration announced 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese exports, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the nation wouldn’t devalue its currency in order to make its exports more competitive. Which, of course, doesn’t...
A slip in the dollar and a bounce in the euro
The dollar is down today against the euro and some emerging market currencies, such as the Turkish lira, are rallying. The news ostensibly behind the move is some data indicating that U.S. inflation slipped in August. The logic goes that with inflation sliding the...
Stocks rally on Wall Street Journal report that U.S. has proposed another round of trade talks with China
Pay close attention. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the United States “is said” to propose another round of trade talks with China. Thats not “There will be trade talk” or “China has accepted a U.S. proposal” or even...
My “best-estimate” scenario for the U.S. stock market for the next 60 days
Let’s start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the...
What if China actually welcomes the Trump administration’s tariffs?
China trade hardliners in the Trump administration, such as advisor Peter Navarro, have predicated their tariff campaign against China on the theory that hiking tariffs on more than $500 billion in Chinese exports to the United States (as proposed at the moment) will...
White House talk of tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods ends “breather day”
Markets started off today as if they were determined to take a breather from a week of worry that the emerging markets crisis was about to spread to developed markets. In morning trading the Standard & Poor’s 500, the NASDAQ Composite, and the iShares MSCI...
Ominous weakening today, September 6, below the surface in U.S. stocks
I know it looks like nothing much happened in the U.S. stock market today, Thursday, September 6. After all the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was off just 0.37% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was actually head by 0.08%. But below the surface,...
Will today’s profit-taking turn into something worse?
I think today’s market downturn is nothing more or less than profit taking. It’s not surprising that investors and traders would sell Amazon (AMZN), for example, today (down 2.19%) since the shares were up 11.6% for the past 30 days as of September 4. The...
Is Spain most exposed developed market to emerging market woes?
In the Greek debt crisis it was relatively easy to track the exposure of national financial markets and banks to the crisis. The big issue was what non-Greek banks had bought the biggest share of Greek government bonds. In the current emerging market crisis,...
Emerging market crisis pulls in India, Indonesia
The bad news is that the emerging market crisis that has sent financial markets plummeting in Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil has added India and Indonesia to its list of victims. The good news is that the inclusion of India and Indonesia is exactly what analysts and...
It’s back–the emerging market crisis that shook global markets just two weeks ago
Remember that emerging market crisis that whacked 10% out of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) between July 31 and August 15–and even produced some anxiety in U.S. markets as the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 2.1% from August 7 through August...
Is a slow-motion credit crunch already here?
Thanks, folks. For weeks now I’ve been writing (especially in a series of special reports on my subscription site JubakAM.com) about an impending credit crunch that would produce a reset (a polite term for a big whoosh down the toilet) in global asset prices....
Time to further lighten up on emerging markets: Selling Arcos Dorados out of Jubak Picks
Back when emerging markets started to break down, I sold my positions in Argentina. Then it looked like the damage might be limited to that country. Not though it’s clear that the whole sector is under pressure and that investors trying to avoid the next...
Emerging markets “emerging” as focus of worry over trade, strong dollar, credit crunch
If you can’t tell from the cascade of negative commentary, you certainly should be able to tell from trend in share prices: emerging markets have become the focus of current worries about global trade, the effects of a strong dollar, and the potential for a...
How to manage risk in this market when the traditional risk safe havens aren’t working
If you spend a significant part of your day staring at your computer to watch the markets, you know that, perplexingly, the traditional safe havens for mitigating portfolio risk haven’t been working very well. For example, gold, which is supposed to go up when...
Any surprises for investors in the Communist Party Congress that starts tomorrow in China?
On the one hand, the results of the 19th Communist Party Congress that begins tomorrow are completely predictable. Current president Xi Jinping will be elected to a new five-year term and when the dust has cleared from the once-every-five-years turnover of 70% of the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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