Hot CPI inflation number takes June interest rate cut off the table
In March the Consumer Price Index inflation rate rose more than expected by economists for a third straight month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That looks to the market today, and to me, like it takes an initial interest rate cut off the table...
Good but disappointing news on CPI inflation for January
Headline, all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell again in January, but not by as much as economists had projected before this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January prices rose at 3.1% year-over-year. That’s a slower increase...
Core CPI inflation numbers disappoint for November, illustrate why the Fed won’t rush to cut rates
If you follow the headline numbers (what’s known as All Urban Consumers) for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), you’d say, “See inflation continues to fall; the Federal Reserve will cut rates quickly in 2024.” But you’d be following the...
Just enough in today’s CPI inflation report to keep one more rate increase for 2023 on the table
Today’s Consumer Price Index report on inflation had just enough bad news on inflation to keep one more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve on the table for 2023. The all items CPI inflation rate rose 0.4% in September from August. That was slightly...
Here’s my preview: CPI inflation report for July due Thursday a.m.
There’s a good chance that the Thursday morning CPI inflation report for July will show a small step backwards in the Fed’s battle against inflation. Here’s the Wall Street consensus as of the end of last week according to FactSet: All-items headline...
April CPI inflation report doesn’t settle anything about Fed rates or rate cuts
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...
Don’t forget tomorrow’s CPI inflation report
Tomorrow, May 10, brings the key CPI inflation report for April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are projecting that headline inflation will rise at a 5% year-over-year rate. That would match the 5% headline rate for the Consumer Price Index in March. The headline...
Wednesday’s CPI inflation report for March is likely to be “less good” than it seems
I expect a disconcerting CPI inflation report for March on Wednesday, April 12. The headline, all-items inflation rate is expected to drop to an annual rate of 5.2% from 6%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be good news for the Federal...
CPI inflation numbers put Fed between a rock and a hard place next week
February core inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, climbed from January at a faster month-to-month pace, according to this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation, which excludes theoretically more volatile food and...
Year-over-year inflation rate drops again, but month-to-month rate shows increase
If you remember your college (or high school if you were precocious) calculus, what we’re worrying about now isn’t the rate of inflation, or even the change in the rate of inflation, but the change in the change of the rate of inflation. Or, in other...
Here’s the latest Wall Street consensus on tomorrow’s CPI inflation report
The consensus is that the headline all-in year-over-year inflation rate will come in at 6.2% for January when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the numbers before the New York market open tomorrow February 14. That would be down from an annual 6.5% rate in...
Stocks can’t quite decide what to make of today’s CPI inflation report
Inflation, measured by the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) fell 0.1% in December versus November. That brought the annual headline inflation rate to 6.5%. That was exactly what a consensus of economists was looking for. The core DPI, which strips out more volatile...
CPI inflation falls more than expected today–market moves higher but not too high ahead of the Fed tomorrow
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI inflation in November climbed at a 7.1% annual rate. Month-to-month inflation rose by just 0.1% from October. Core inflation, that is inflation without energy or food prices, rose at a 6.0% annual rate...
CPI inflation comes in below economists’ consensus projections
This morning, November 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual inflation rate fell to 7.7% in October. That was below the 8.2% annual are in September and below the 7.9% annual rate project by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. The...
Meanwhile… there’s tomorrow’s release of CPI inflation for October
It’s likely to be days, weeks, months–if we have to wait from a December runoff vote in the Georgia Senate race–before we know who controls what house of Congress and by how many seats. In the meantime, tomorrow, November 10, brings the October CPI...
This week it’s CPI inflation time again
Another big macroeconomic report to hang over stocks, depressing volatility. After all, who wants to get out ahead of Thursday’s Consumer Price Index inflation report for October? Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that CPI headline inflation will slip to...
Stocks soar, bonds fall on worse than expected CPI inflation news
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation rose at an 8.2% annual rate in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. Month-to-month inflation rose by 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The month-to-month increase was just 0.1% in August. Core...
CPI headline inflation falls more than expected; core inflation remains steady
The annual rate of inflation as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped in July to 8.5%. That was down from June’s annual rate of 9.1%. Economists had expected the inflation rate to drop to 8.7% However, the news wasn’t as positive on...
The big event of the week is Wednesday’s CPI inflation report–expect some nerves before the news and waves after it
All eyes will be on the July CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report due on Wednesday, August 10, before the market open. The market hope is that we’ll see the first signs that inflation has peaked after the headline CPI inflation surged at a 9.1% annual...
CPI headline inflation up at 9.1% annual rate in June
It’s not the kind of historical comparison you want to hear. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI rose at a 9.1% annual rate in June. That was the highest annual rate since November 1981. (Just as the Volcker Fed was raising interest rates to...
Signs that inflation maybe peaking not enough for stocks today
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at an annual rate of 4.7% in May. That was below economists’ expectations and a slight dip from the 4.9% annual rate in April. If you were so...
Inflation fell in April but not by as much as Wall Street had hoped
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, fell in April to a year over year rate of 8.3%. That was down from an 8.5% rate in March, raising hopes that the economy had seen the inflation peak. But economists had been projecting a drop to 8.0% in April. Which...
Tomorrow’s a big day for inflation and interest rate increases from the Fed
Tomorrow, January 10, before the market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index inflation for January. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting an annualized increase of 7.2% in inflation. That would be a significant...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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