Inflection point for stocks approaches
Today what I’m calling “re-opening dependent” stock fell again. At least in the early going. Toward the end of session–like yesterday–these stocks and stocks in general rallied. Which in and of itself tells us something important about...
Pfizer good news on coronavirus vaccine moves stocks ahead
Just in case you were wondering if the market is counting on a coronavirus vaccine in the nearer term, wonder no longer. (Expectations, for the moment, look to a vaccine by January, if I can judge by comments I’m seeing.) News from Pfizer (PFE) and partner...
Apple says it will close 30 more stores
I’m using Apple (AAPL) as one indicator for the state of the re-opening economy. Apple’s decision today to re-close 30 more of its stores in seven states, including Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah,...
Royal Dutch Shell to take $15 to $22 billion second quarter write down
It’s a measure of how dire things are in the oil sector that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) has announced a write down of between $15 billion and $22 billion for the second quarter. The write down is larger than the $17.5 billion write down that BP (BP) took in June...
The debt load for consumers and companies just keeps rising
We’ll soon get new figures from the Federal Reserve now that the second quarter is coming to an end today, but I’d guess that the debt picture won’t be better than it was at the end of the first quarter on March 31. At the end of May non-financial...
Don’t fight the Fed? Well, maybe
The advice “Don’t fight the Fed” makes sense. If the Fed is flooding the financial markets with cash, then buy and follow along as the Fed makes money available to drive up asset prices. If the Fed is tightening, reducing the available supply of...
Turns out re-opening is easy; staying re-opened is hard
With Texas setting a one-day high for new coronavirus cases on Wednesday at 6,584 Governor Greg Abbott reversed a pledge that that going “backward” and closing down businesses was “the last thing we want to do.” Effective today bars must close (although they can...
Double whammy: IMF downgrades growth forecast, states report surging coronavirus cases
As of 1 p.m. today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down 2.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 2.29%. The tech-heavy NASDAQn Composite, a recent market bulwark, dropped 1.80% and the Russell 2000 small cap index resumed its...
July is shaping up as the cruelest month in the coronavirus economy
In May governments shed more than 570,000 workers as states and cities grappled with huge budget shortfalls created by the coronavirus pandemic and shutdowns of economic activity imposed in an effort to get the outbreak under control. those layoffs are going to get...
Raising my target price on Incyte to $120 a share after 58.5% gain in last 3 months
I admit it. I feel silly talking about price targets and valuations in this market. After all everything is just going to the sky. Infinity and Beyond!!! But, as silly as I may feel, I don’t think the gods of investing have repealed the laws of valuation. At...
Apple re-shuts some U.S. stores on rise in coronavirus in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina
Nothing sums up the uncertainty of the re-opening economy and the continued coronavirus pandemic than news today that Apple (AAPL) is temporarily again shutting some of its U.S. retail stores. The 11 closed stores are in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and South...
Stock patterns today show deep uncertainty about market direction in today’s buying and selling
It wasn’t a day for big moves in U.S. stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed ahead 0.06% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.15%, for example. Nobody wants to get every far ahead of the trend–whichever direction it’s...
Stop torturing the data to determine the “reality” of the coronavirus re-opening–Look to an early adopter model from technology to determine the stock market trend from the re-opening economy
I’m as much in favor of reality as the next guy. Maybe more so. And during the coronavirus pandemic and the current economic re-opening I’ve been scarfing up every bit of data that I can. I begin my day by digging into the latest news of cases n Arizona,...
Oil inventories prove stubbornly high
Inventories of gasoline and distillates fell last week, as they should even in a coronavirus-impacted summer driving season, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported today. But crude inventories remained stubbornly high, an indication that the rise in...
New claims for unemployment rise by 1.54 million for week ended June 6
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits continued to trend lower with 1.54 million workers applying in the week ended June 6. That’s down from 1.9 million initial claims in the prior week. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 1.55 million...
Starbucks $3 billion loss and big shift in post-coronavirus business model
Today, June 10, Starbucks (SBUX) CEO Kevin Johnson wrote in an open letter to customers and investors that the company expects to lose more than $3 billion in revenue in its fiscal third quarter, which ends on June 28, due to the coronavirus pandemic. (The company...
Why today’s good news shock on jobs comes at a really unfortunate time
I’d argue the last thing we needed today was good news. In case you’re been hiding under a rock, you know that the economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. (Read my immediately prior post for a run down of...
Trump administration picks five coronavirus vaccine efforts to receive big government funding
The Trump administration has identified five companies that will get major government funding for the development of a coronavirus vaccine under Operation Warp Speed, the New York Times reported yesterday. The White House is expected to officially announce the names...
More headroom for biotech sector–and heads up on a coming pick
On May 29 the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB) hit an all-time high of $134.85, breaking the record of $133 set in 2015. Not surprising with money flooding into the sector as everyone and their Aunt Sally looks to find the stock that will rocket to the moon on...
Jim’s Extra! A near-term threat to the V-shaped recovery
Stock prices–3068.76 on for the Standard & Poor’s 500 as of 1 p.m. New York time today–continue to climb toward the all-time closing record for the S&P 500 at 3386.15 set on February 19. That makes some sense if you believe that the Federal...
Do you see what I see?
This morning what I saw in photos and videos from this past Memorial Day weekend was a country rushing pell mell toward re-opening the economy without a thought for safety amidst a still uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak. I saw photos of crowds at beaches, on board...
Even after yesterday’s rip-roaring gains, the S&P 500 is stuck–so what comes next?
Yesterday, May 18, the Standard & Poor’s 500 closed at 2953. We’ve been here before. Several times, in fact. On May 8, the index closed at 2929.80. On April 29, the close was 2939. With the 200-day moving average at 2998.,56, even yesterday’s...
Another week, another 3.17 million new claims for unemployment, but stocks move higher
Initial claims for unemployment totaled 3.17 million for the week ended May 2, the Labor Department reported today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 3 million new claims for the week. This week’s total was down from the 3.85 million initial claims...
Another 3.8 million new claims for unemployment in past week and job losses shift to white color jobs
The job losses continued, as expected, with 3.84 million people filing new claims for unemployment in the week that ended on April 25. That follows on 4.44 million new claims for unemployment in the prior week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 3.5...
So much for the 2014 economic rally: U.S. GDP fell annualized 4.8% in the first quarter
The U.S. economy contracted at a 4.8% annualized pace in the first quarter. That’s the worst slide since 2008 and the first down quarter for growth since 2014. Consumer spending, no surprise in days of coronavirus shelter at home orders, led the decline (with a...
The re-opening rally is back on
Today is all about optimism–forget plunging oil prices, uncertain earnings, or a first quarter drop in GDP– for an upturn in the economy as more states–Colorado is newest to climb on board–re-open parts of their economies. Today, at least, no...
“Flop” in remesivir antiviral drug in Chinese trial takes starch out of stocks
The Financial Times reported that a Chinese trial for Gilead Sciences’s (GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir against Covid-19 ended without meaningful conclusions on its efficacy. That was enough to reverse the gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 on the...
Another 4.4 million new claims for unemployment reported today
More than 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the week ended April 18, according to the Labor Department today. From March 15 to April 18 26.5 million people have filed initial claims for unemployment. Economists estimate that the national...
Just a reminder: weekly report on new claims for unemployment tomorrow
The projections from economists are that the total initial claims for unemployment will fall to 4.5 million for the week ended on April 18. That would still be a horrendous number. The total weekly figure at the beginning of this spike was 280,000. Last week, 5.25...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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