Not good news for the capital goods sector: Fed finds 42% of non-financial U.S. public companies are discussing slashing investments
A new study by the Federal Reserve that looked at 600 earnings calls last month found that 42% of American non-financial public companies are discussing slashing investments. Another 17% are focused on drawing down on credit lines (The study, conducted by Fed ,...
Today’s big job losses in ADP survey don’t bode well for Thursday new unemployment claims and Friday government jobs report
Employment at U.S. companies plummeted in April by the most in records back to 2002, according to numbers fro the ADP Research Institute release today.. The report reflects data through April 12 in order to align with the report from the Labor Department for April,...
Disney misses Wall Street projections on earnings; signals worse to come
How did Wall Street analysts get Disney (DIS) earnings today so wrong? Analysts had been projecting earnings of 86 cents a share. The company reported earnings of just 60 cents for the company’s second quarter. The bigger-than-Disney takeaway here is...
Inflation continues to fall; deflation a possibility
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said annualized inflation across the group of 37 advanced economies slowed to 1.7% in March from 2.3% in February. That’s the biggest deceleration since the 2008 global financial crisis. Energy prices...
Credit crunch hits credit cards hard
Credit card issuers have already cut the credit limits or closed credit card accounts entirely for about 1 in 4 credit card holders–almost 50 million Americans–in the past 30 days, according to a survey byLending Tree’s Compare Cards website. The...
Treasury to borrow $3 trillion during April to June quarter
Okay, the Treasury actually will need to borrow only $2.99 trillion, but close enough, no? It will still be a record. The previous record for borrowing in a single quarter was $530 billion in the July to September 2008 quarter in the fallout from the global financial...
It’s May–time for a mortgage and rental crisis
By the end of April 3.8 million homeowners had sought mortgage relief and were not making their payments. That’s a 2,400% increase from early March, Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider, told the Washington Post. The problem may be even worse...
So this is volatility! Don’t beat yourself up if you don’t get each day right
On Wednesday, I felt really stupid. I don’t believe in this rally. I still think we’re due for the bear to come roaring back. And I think the bottom in this market is still somewhere ahead. But on Wednesday April 29, I felt completely WRONG. The Standard...
What if the helicopter trillions don’t work this time?
Drop money from the sky. Lots and lots of it. Enough to shock a struggling economy out of a deep slump. Milton Friedman coined the term. In Friedman’s scenario the helicopters appear unexpectedly ( I don’t know if they play Wagner) and just dump money on...
Adding Coke to my Dividend Portfolio
Today’s shocking announcement from Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) that it would cut its 10% dividend, to 16 cents a share is a brutal reminder of one of the big challenges facing dividend investors. Royal Dutch shares were down 12.02% as of 3 p.m. Nw York time today,...
Another 3.8 million new claims for unemployment in past week and job losses shift to white color jobs
The job losses continued, as expected, with 3.84 million people filing new claims for unemployment in the week that ended on April 25. That follows on 4.44 million new claims for unemployment in the prior week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 3.5...
Here’s why stocks went up today even with news that the economy contracted by 4.8% in the first quarter
My explanation. See if this makes sense to you. Nothing in the rear view window matters to Wall Street right now. Â Not first quarter earnings. Not economic growth or the lack thereof. Nothing in the second quarter matters either. Forecasts of a 30% or more drop in...
Fed keeps policy stable, says 0% rates as far as the eye can see
As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates at their current level of 0%-0.25%. And there were very few changes in the central bank’s language. But a few subtle shifts are worth noting, I believe. The Fed said in early April that “We have also committed...
So much for the 2014 economic rally: U.S. GDP fell annualized 4.8% in the first quarter
The U.S. economy contracted at a 4.8% annualized pace in the first quarter. That’s the worst slide since 2008 and the first down quarter for growth since 2014. Consumer spending, no surprise in days of coronavirus shelter at home orders, led the decline (with a...
Why McConnell’s idea to let states and cities go bankrupt is great–if you want to make the coronavirus recession worse
I’ll bet Mitch McConnell has Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell tearing his hair out. McConnell has repeatedly said in recent days that he’s opposed to any plan to provide $500 billion or so of Federal (that is taxpayer money) to state and city...
The re-opening rally is back on
Today is all about optimism–forget plunging oil prices, uncertain earnings, or a first quarter drop in GDP– for an upturn in the economy as more states–Colorado is newest to climb on board–re-open parts of their economies. Today, at least, no...
So how quickly would Americans resume “normal” activities? New survey gives an answer or two
A new survey from CBS News shows that most Americans would be reluctant to head out to former activities even if stay-at-home orders were lifted now. Only 13%, for instance, would be comfortable going to a large sports or entertainment event if a stay-at-home order...
Another 4.4 million new claims for unemployment reported today
More than 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the week ended April 18, according to the Labor Department today. From March 15 to April 18 26.5 million people have filed initial claims for unemployment. Economists estimate that the national...
Just a reminder: weekly report on new claims for unemployment tomorrow
The projections from economists are that the total initial claims for unemployment will fall to 4.5 million for the week ended on April 18. That would still be a horrendous number. The total weekly figure at the beginning of this spike was 280,000. Last week, 5.25...
Coca-Cola says it starts to feel the coronavirus slowdown in April
Coca-Cola (KO) beat on earnings and revenue in the first quarter. But, the company said today, April 21, monthly volumes have slumped in April by about 25% globally. The most likely cause of the pattern: Consumers stocked up on Coke products as the coronavirus...
Yesterday’s carnage in the May oil futures spreads today to the June futures
After plunging below $0 on Monday as the May futures contracts neared expiration, West Texas Intermediate continued its descent with the price of oil on the June futures falling to $10 a barrel. The problem, clearly, isn’t in just a technical glitch in the...
Jim’s Extra! 5 MORE smart, short-term moves while we wait for longer-term trends to resolve
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
China GDP plunges by 6.8% in first quarter
China’s gross domestic product contracted by 6.8% from a year ago in the first quarter. Economists had projected a 6.0% drop. The decline was the worst since the government began releasing quarterly GDP numbers in 1992. Other numbers in today’s data dump...
Job losses top 22 million as week sees another 5.2 million initial claims for unemployment
5.245 million more people filed initial claims for unemployment in the week ended April 11, the Labor Department reported this morning. That was down from the prior week’s 6.615 million (revised upwards from an initial report of 6.606 million.) Â But it still...
TSM beats for quarter, cuts guidance for year, sticks to capital spending plan
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) beat analyst estimates for the first quarter, the company announced today. Net profit almost doubled to $3.9 billion on $10.31 billion in revenue. That amounts to a 91% increase from the March quarter of 2019. Analysts had...
U.S. benchmark oil falls below $20 a barrel on largest increase ever in U.S. inventories
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell below $20 a barrel, the lowest price since 2002, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a huge jump of almost 20 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories. At 1:00 P.m. New York time West Texas...
What do you do when the market is insane and you’re not?
In the short run rationality is not an especially adaptive trait for an investor. Remember that. Take today’s market for example. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) delivered very sobering news on how the coronavirus and the coronavirus shutdown of big...
Oil deal gets a shrug from the oil markets
This take from Goldman Sachs pretty much sums up the oil market’s reaction to Sunday’s agreement among OPEC+, the United States, Canada, Brazil, and various and sundry G20 oil producers to cut what could be generously calculated as 14.7 million barrels a...
The deluge of cuts to earnings estimates has started–but Wall Street remains optimistic–perhaps too optimistic–on Q1 estimates
I opened my online brokerage account yesterday to see an endless stream of news briefs about Wall Street analyst cuts to earnings estimates for the first quarter earnings season that begins next week with earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) on...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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