The natural gas glut in the U.S. shows no signs of slowing production
Doesn’t anybody know that there’s a natural gas glut in the United States? In a glut low prices are supposed to force producers to shut wells and reduce production so that demand has a chance to catch up with supply and prices can start to rise. It just doesn’t seem...Up/down, buy/sell, gloom/boom: It's not easy to be a long-term investor
Take the long view The stock market is fixated on the short-term, we all know that. It’s an unusual occasion when stock analysts and investors look more than a few quarters ahead. That means stock prices often tend to respond to short-term news as if it were the only...Update Potlatch (PCH)
Not good but stabilizing.  I think that’s the best way to describe Potlatch’s (PCH) third quarter earnings reported after the market close on October 26. Log prices remain low but, the company says, are stabilizing. Sales of higher, better use land—timberland that’s...Update Bunge (BG)
On October 22 Bunge (BG) reported disappointing revenue for the third quarter of 2009, missing Wall Street estimates by $900 million. And then the company guided Wall Street to expect earnings of just $3.10 to $3.50 for the full 2009 year instead of the $4.69 analysts...China pumps up the bubble-making machinery again
So much for restraint. Back in August it looked like the Chinese government, concerned about rising prices for stocks and real estate, had decided to slow down bank lending. Forget it. In September it was back to the races. New bank lending climbed to $76 billion in...Behind China's buying spree in oil: fears of a falling dollar
What do you do if you’re sitting on reserves of $2 trillion and you’re afraid that a sinking U.S. dollar will erode the value of that pile of cash? If you’re China, you buy things. Small things, naturally. $40 billion for oil drilling rights in...The Australian dollar sets off a global rally
Who’d a thunk it? The Austalian central bank raises interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and the result is a global rally in everything from gold to commodities to stocks. Australia’s economy–2008 GDP $1 trillion–isn’t big enough to...Update Yara International (YARIY)
The just-ended and about to be reported third quarter is shaping up as Yara International’s (YARIY) kitchen-sink quarter. Order volumes for 2010 have picked up but prices, in many cases set way back in June, are still low. Yara, a Norwegian fertilizer producer and the...Update Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF.PK)
Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF.PK) announced on September 30 that a proposed $6 billion financing deal with Chinese investors had fallen through. That hasn’t helped the stock price. I sold Fortescue Metalsout of my 12-18 month Jubak’s Picks portfolio on...Sell Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF.PK)
As I wrote in my 11:45 post today, I think the short-term commodities cycle has turned. China’s buying spree, which fueled a furious commodity rally in the last six months, is, if not over, slowing. China’s buying in the second half of the year is likely...Bad news for commodities: China's buying spree is slowing
The Baltic Dry Index. If you invest in commodities or commodity stocks, this is the best indicator of short-term trends in the market for commodities such as iron ore,grain, and coal that are carried in bulk by ships. And the news hasn’t been good recently. The...Sell Joy Global (JOYG)
Joy Global (JOYG) has blown through my target price for June 2010 in just two months. Try as I might, I can’t juggle the fundamental numbers to come up a reason to raise that target now, so I’m going to sell these shares out of Jubak’s Picks. Joy...Update Potash of Saskatchewan (POT)
Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) lowered its guidance for third quarter 2009 and full year 2009 earnings again on Monday, September 21. The company now expects earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 for the full year versus its previous projections of $4.00 to $5.00 and the Wall...Buy GulfMark Offshore (GLF)
Suddenly they’re hitting gushers from the Gulf of Mexico to the South Atlantic off Brazil to the west coast of Africa off Ghana and Sierra Leone. The oil from these finds will eventually become critical to global supply—once the global economic downturn is over. The...Steel, a leading indicator on the economy, could be turning negative
Steel goes into buildings, appliances, and cars. That makes demand for steel a leading indicator for the economy since companies order steel in antipication of rising sales of their own products. This summer global demand moved up and so did prices. In August a...Rare earths: You can't build hybrids or wind turbines without them and China is putting the squeeze on supplies
Lanthanum. Neodymium. Dysprosium. Terbium. The words don’t exactly roll off the tongue. But they’re the names of four of the seventeen rare earth elements. You can’t build a Prius, an accurate missile, or a wind turbine without them. And thanks to the threat of an...Mexico's rapid decline in oil production is proving peak oil proponents right
The news just keeps getting worse from Mexico’s huge Cantarell oil field—and worse faster than anybody had expected too. Cantarell, a big field in the Gulf of Mexico, was once the world’s second largest oil field. But after years of under investment by Mexico’s...Is there profit in water by the drop?
Water is the difference between paradise and hell. As far as I know that isn’t an old Moorish saying, but it should be. Driving through the fields of AndalucÃa last week, I remember looking out the right hand-window and seeing nothing but burnt brown earth and olive...Are you contrarian enough to own farm stocks?
So when’s the farm rebound? The U.S. Department of Agriculture can’t cut its forecasts of farm income fast enough. Farm income will drop 38% in 2009 from 2008 levels, the USDA said on August 27. The forecast of $54 billion would mark a seven-year low in farm income...Update Deere (DE)
Deere’s (DE) third quarter earnings report on August 19 confirmed what the company forecast in its second quarter report: forget about 2009. In the quarter earnings per share fell by 25% to 99 cents from $1.32 in the third quarter of 2008. Revenue dropped 24% to $5.89...Update BHP Billiton (BHP)
When I added BHP Billiton (BHP) to my Jubak Picks 50 portfolio in my book The Jubak Picks I said that the company was a one-buy way to get exposure to a wide spectrum of commodities. In the first half of 2009 that diversification paid off big, the company reported on...Natural gas pains: What's a value investor to buy?
Some company will eventually make a killing from today’s collapse in natural gas prices. But when? And which company? Value investors usually only need to identify a bargain and then hang on until the rest of the stock market catches up with their thinking. But the...Update Potash of Saskatchewan (POT)
There’s just one more big customer negotiation standing between Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) and a bottom for potash prices. Unfortunately for anyone hoping for a quick fix that customer is China and the Chinese are likely to take their time striking a deal. In...Update Vale (VALE)
The short-term numbers that Vale (VALE), the world’s low cost exporter of iron ore, reported on July 30 for the second quarter of 2009 were ugly but expected. Operating revenue dropped by $300 million to $5.1 billion from the first quarter. Profit margins fell to 20%...Update Kinross Gold (KGC)
A good second quarter from Kinross Gold (KGC)–considering the uncertainties of the mining business where anything from an ore body running a lower grade than expected to floods to civil war can disrupt production. Earnings of 12 cents a share for the second...Asian stocks are looking expensive. Which could be good for U.S. shares
Asian stocks were rallying again as I wrote this about midnight New York time on Wednesday August 13. Nothing really surprising about what kind of companies were leading the move. Gainers included miners (BHP Billiton (BHP), the world’s largest mining company),...Trading halted in Fortescue Metals: more cash from China on the way?
Trading in Australian iron ore miner (and Jubak’s Pick) Fortescue Metal (FSUMF.PK) has been halted in anticipation of the release of news on Monday that the company has completed a  ”commercial negotiation”. Speculation in Australia is that the news...Brazil adopts a China-style industrial policy–and the target is China
The Brazilian government has told Vale (VALE), the country’s largest iron-ore producer (and either No. 1 or No. 2 in the world) that it has to do more to build up the Brazilian domestic steel industry rather than just selling iron ore to Chinese steelmakers....China plays hardball on iron ore but the iron ore miners are the winners so far
China has so far refused to sign a long term contract with the world’s big iron ore exporters, Vale (VALE), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RTP). The goal was to get a big price break on iron ore prices. But it now looks like China’s tough stance has...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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