Putin likely to lash out after Russian setbacks in Ukraine–watch wheat, corn, and natural gas
News this weekend that Ukrainian forces had pushed to the Russian border with the country in the Kharkiv oblast is likely to provoke a big reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s not just that Ukrainian forces have advanced but that they have racked...
Natural gas, corn, and wheat lead commodities higher today
At the close today, July 26, the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) was up 2.55% and the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) was ahead 4.11% Both of those commodity plays outgained the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) with its 1.38% move higher. But for consistent gains–and the...
A very busy week ahead–Ukraine and commodities, tech stock earnings, and, of course, the Fed on interest rates
What a week ahead. I’d expect speculation about what the Federal Reserve will say on Wednesday to dominate a very lengthy slate of market news. No real suspense about whether or not the Fed will raise rates at its July 27 meeting. The central bank has made it...
If China’s growth is slowing, can the U.S. and other economies be far behind?
That’s the worry set off by the announcement last week by the People’s Bank of China that it would cut the reserve requirement for China’s big banks by 50 basis points. While economists had been expecting the move from the People’s Bank, they...
Wheaton Precious Metals hikes dividend by 30%
Before you get too excited by that headline, note that a 30% hike in the dividend at Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) will bring the payout to just 13 cents for the first quarter of 2021. But that’s still, as my grandmother used to say, better than a poke in the...
Adding shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) hit the headlines yesterday on news that it had made a big buy in shares of Japanese trading companies. To me that looks like a typical Buffett value play on commodities and international trade at a time when the market...
Oil pushes higher on inventory report and global markets (except for China) follow
U.S. inventories of crude fell by 5.25 million barrels for the week ended May 5, according U.S. Energy Information Administration. Oil analysts had expected a smaller draw of 1.8 million to 2 million barrels. That was enough to fuel a big rally in oil prices with the...
Market’s faith in the growth story fading
In spite of a vote of confidence from the International Monetary Fund and solid first quarter GDP growth in China, the market’s faith in economic growth strong enough to move U.S. stocks up from current levels is fading. You can see that in negative comments...Some hope for the company but disappointingly familiar news for copper in Freeport-McMoRan earnings today
The story in Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold’s (FCX) third quarter earnings report today was better news for the company than it was for the copper market in particular or the global commodities sector in general. The company did miss Wall Street estimates on...
As usual, today’s “agreement” by OPEC is more talk than action
What exactly did OPEC agree to in Algiers today? Oil rallied big time today on news that OPEC countries have agreed to reimpose a production ceiling and to drop production to 32.5 to 33 million barrels a day. At the low end of the range that would amount to a...
Economy and financial markets point in different directions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Pity the poor Federal Reserve. In making decisions about interest rates–in this case about whether or not to raise interest rates at its June, July or September meetings–it has to consider the condition of both the real economy and the financial markets. And right now...
UK voters decide to leave European Union–What’s next (Part 1 short term effects)?
By a surprisingly large margin of 52% to 48% the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit referendum. Global financial markets plunged in a decline all the more dramatic because traders and investors had decided on Wednesday that the...
Buy Yamana Gold (AUY)
Now that’s more like it. When I dropped Kinross Gold (KGC) from my long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio https://jubakpicks.com/jubak-picks-50/ on January 13 I said that what I wanted in a gold mining stock was a company with low production costs and rising production....Update BHP Billiton (BHP)
As tea leaves go, those presented to investors in BHP Billiton’s (BHP) February 16 post-earnings-report conference call could have been a bit clearer. I think the way to decide buy/sell/hold on BHP and on the mining sector as a whole is to look past the very confusing...Update Deere (DE)
Good times for the world’s farmers and for Deere (DE) will continue, Deere said in its fiscal first quarter 2011 earnings report released on February 16, before the New York stock markets opened. The company’s earnings reports get scrutinized as much for Deere’s...Investing in water–it's hard but here are 8 stocks that do the job
China, the world’s largest wheat producer, is facing a severe drought in areas of the North China plain that account for 67% of the country’s wheat crop. China’s wheat production fell to 114.5 million tons in the 2010 harvest from 115.1 million tons a year earlier....USDA reports global wheat producer lower than expected–forget about inflation relief from falling food prices
This isn’t good news for anyone worried that soaring food prices are fueling global inflation. Today, February 9, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecasts of global wheat inventories because of falling production in the Ukraine. Global stockpiles will...For commodity profits follow the long cycles–here's how
The sky’s the limit. The sky is falling. In the short term pretty that much describes the behavior of commodity stocks. And it’s all too easy to get caught up on the drama of those short-term moves because the possible profits if you can outguess the market are all...Update Freeport McMoRan (FCX)
What if you’re wrong? Always a possibility worth contemplating. Last week (January 20 and 21), I gave you a pretty pessimistic view of the prospects for the world’s emerging stock markets—and emerging-economy-dependent stocks such as those of commodity...Update Goldcorp (GG)
On January 13, Goldcorp (GG) announced production and cost guidance for 2011. Let’s just say that my investment thesis for Goldcorp—that this is a low-cost producer of gold with rising production—remains intact. In 2010, the company said, gold production grew to a...For thrills and chills–and profits–there's nothing quite like copper (although I'd put off buying for a few weeks)
Just because your favorite roller coaster is closed for the winter season doesn’t mean you have to give up thrills and spills—there’s always the copper market. Copper hit a record high on the London Metal Exchange on January 4, and moved to a three-and-a-half year...Aussie floods push price of coal for steelmaking toward new record
Local officials are saying that the floods in the northern Australian state of Queensland have reached “biblical proportions.” The floods, a result of the wettest spring on record, have struck an area bigger than France and Germany combined. Flooding from six rivers...U.S. natural gas stocks will be an amazing bargain but when? How about late 2011?
So when is the time to buy U.S. natural gas stocks? A new analysis from Houston energy investment banker Tudor, Pickering, Holt, reported by Reuters Breaking Views, says late in 2011 or so. Natural gas prices in the United States are in an extended slump with gas...Update Potash of Saskatchewan (POT)
In a presentation at the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Global Industries conference on December 15, Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) offered a modestly optimistic view on potash fertilizer demand for 2011—and a very bullish view for global agriculture. Potash first. The...Update Joy Global (JOYG)
Reporting fiscal fourth quarter earnings December 15 before the market opened in New York, Joy Global (JOYG) beat analyst earnings expectations by 23 cents a share with quarterly earnings of $1.39. Revenue of $1.05 billion, up 9% from the fourth quarter of fiscal...Buy Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)
On December 9 Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) announced that it would pay a special dividend of $1 a share on December 30 (to shareholders of record on December 20). In addition the company announced a 2 for 1 stock split effective on February 1, 2011. This...Another Japanese trading company is considering an investment in another rare earth company–this time it's Molycorp
Good news—but it’s hard to tell how much that news is worth because so much is still at the “letter of intent” or “considering” stage. Molycorp (MCP), the U.S. rare earth mining play that went public on July 29 with a first day closing price of $12.85, spelled out its...Update Vale (VALE)
And the biggest winner from Argentina’s huge natural gas from shale discovery in Patagonia? YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) is certainly a winner. The find of 4.5 trillion cubic feet of gas is roughly double the Argentine company’s previous proved natural gas reserves of...Update Thompson Creek Metals (TC)
It’s not like you you’re going sneak up on an undiscovered bargain in a copper mining stock these days. Copper has been selling near record highs this year on an anticipated shortfall in supply in 2011 and on increased demand from commodity investors. On December 7,...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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