How to escape the next lost decade
A lost decade. 1999 to 2009 sure qualifies for many investors in stocks. A lost decade to come? I can’t tell you what stocks or stock markets will perform best over the next ten years. But I can tell you that many U.S. investors are still sitting in portfolios that...When will China let its currency appreciate? The U.S. says by summer, please
When will China remove the dollar-renminbi peg and let its currency appreciate against the dollar and the currencies of its trading partners? Thanks to U.S. ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at least when the United States timetable for China to act. On November 19 he...An undervalued Chinese currency is bad for the world but could be profitable for you
Friends, readers, and countrymen, lend me your eyeballs. I come not to bury the fixed dollar-renminbi peg but to praise it. (Yeah, it doesn’t roll off the tongue but have you ever seen Shakespeare’s first draft of Anthony’s speech?) If you’re running the global...Dollar carry trade + Obama in China = Volatility ahead
Stocks will be volatile next week. On November 16 through 18 U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao and other Chinese leaders. The currency markets will study every word and rumor out of those meetings in Beijing for clues on when China...Talk is cheap especially at 6.8 renminbi to the dollar. But a re-valuation of China's currency is coming
On November 11, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, said that there might be a case for letting the renminbi appreciate against the U.S. dollar. China’s currency has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since July 2008 at roughly 6.83 renminbi to the...China's economy shifts into a higher gear
Good news, bad news from China. Good news first: China’s economy continues to roar ahead. Retail sales climbed at an annual rate of 16.2%. Exports slowed their slide and the trade surplus almost doubled to $24 billion in September. GDP growth looks well on its way to...To find the next McDonald's look to emerging markets
By 2015 one-third of companies in the Financial Times Global 500, a list that’s roughly the global equivalent of the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, will come from the world’s emerging markets, according to Bain & Co. Makes sense to me. Economic growth...Everybody knows China is manipulating its currency but nobody expected the U.S. to say so. And it didn't
Surprise, surprise. The U.S. Treasury Department criticized China for a“lack of flexibility” on currency exchange rates but didn’t dare come out and say that the country is keeping the renminbi artificially cheap. You don’t get to say that, I guess, if you...China pumps up the bubble-making machinery again
So much for restraint. Back in August it looked like the Chinese government, concerned about rising prices for stocks and real estate, had decided to slow down bank lending. Forget it. In September it was back to the races. New bank lending climbed to $76 billion in...Behind China's buying spree in oil: fears of a falling dollar
What do you do if you’re sitting on reserves of $2 trillion and you’re afraid that a sinking U.S. dollar will erode the value of that pile of cash? If you’re China, you buy things. Small things, naturally. $40 billion for oil drilling rights in...Update Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF.PK)
Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF.PK) announced on September 30 that a proposed $6 billion financing deal with Chinese investors had fallen through. That hasn’t helped the stock price. I sold Fortescue Metalsout of my 12-18 month Jubak’s Picks portfolio on...Apple gets its deal in China; iPhone goes non-exclusive in the UK
China Unicom (CHU) announced on September 28 that it will begin selling Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone in China on October 1. China Unicom is China’s second largest mobile phone operator. (For more on how the Chinese players line up and the coming battle between...Health care reform is an even bigger deal in China–and it will change the way to invest in that country
Health care spending has doubled from 2002 to 2007. Tens of millions of people aren’t covered by any health insurance and as a result of the global economic crisis and the consequent economic slowdown millions who had insurance have lost it. Despite the rise in health...Sell Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF.PK)
As I wrote in my 11:45 post today, I think the short-term commodities cycle has turned. China’s buying spree, which fueled a furious commodity rally in the last six months, is, if not over, slowing. China’s buying in the second half of the year is likely...Bad news for commodities: China's buying spree is slowing
The Baltic Dry Index. If you invest in commodities or commodity stocks, this is the best indicator of short-term trends in the market for commodities such as iron ore,grain, and coal that are carried in bulk by ships. And the news hasn’t been good recently. The...Read the fine print on predictions that Asia will lead the world's economies in 2010: There's a big "if"
On Tuesday September 22 the Asian Development Bank said that the economies of developing Asia–that’s Asia excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand–would grow by 3.9% in 2009 and by 6.4% in 2010. That would be enough to lead the global economy out...The past isn't what it seems: The more you know about France the more this quirky history will amaze you
When we divide the world into developed and undeveloped economies, we should remember how very recent all of what we call development is. When we marvel at—or doubt–the speed at which China or India or Brazil is becoming developed, we should remember that what...Rare earths: You can't build hybrids or wind turbines without them and China is putting the squeeze on supplies
Lanthanum. Neodymium. Dysprosium. Terbium. The words don’t exactly roll off the tongue. But they’re the names of four of the seventeen rare earth elements. You can’t build a Prius, an accurate missile, or a wind turbine without them. And thanks to the threat of an...First Solar cracks the China market–sort of
Like most investment stories involving China, it pays to read the fine print on First Solar’s (FSLR) announcement that it has signed a deal to build a huge 2 gigawatt solar plant in China. That’s a huge deal because 1) the proposed plant, at 2 gigawatts,...Flight from the U.S. dollar is pumping up Asian stock markets
You don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to know where the money is going. It’s elementary. Investors are taking money out of the United States, which they see as lagging the global economic recovery, and putting it into Asia, which they see as leading the global...Are China's stocks now cheap?
So who’s right about China’s stock markets? Domestic Chinese investors, who follow government pronouncements on bank lending as if they’re portfolios depended on it, have led selling that has taken the Shanghai Stock market down 16% in August. Wall Street money...Update HSBC (HBC)
One half of HSBC’s (HBC) business is performing beautifully. Unfortunately, it’s not the part that I most want to own. On August 3, HSBC reported second quarter earnings that showed that its investment banking and trading had doubled its pre-tax profit for...It would slow the world's aging, but can you really make people have more kids?
I’m pretty sure that Shanghai’s plan won’t work. Weighed up against the forces pushing couples toward having kids later and then having fewer of them, the government’s incentives are just too small. In Japan cash talks. And loudly. The...Brazil adopts a China-style industrial policy–and the target is China
The Brazilian government has told Vale (VALE), the country’s largest iron-ore producer (and either No. 1 or No. 2 in the world) that it has to do more to build up the Brazilian domestic steel industry rather than just selling iron ore to Chinese steelmakers....Is the speed of China's economic growth a fiction?
Timing is everything. Any first year accounting student knows that the easiest way—in the short term–to make a company’s revenues and earnings look good is to change when a company recognizes a sale or an expense. Recognize a sale as soon as the sales person...China plays hardball on iron ore but the iron ore miners are the winners so far
China has so far refused to sign a long term contract with the world’s big iron ore exporters, Vale (VALE), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RTP). The goal was to get a big price break on iron ore prices. But it now looks like China’s tough stance has...Apple and Google go head to head in China's mobile phone market
Ladies and gentlemen. In this corner, wearing the Macintosh red trunks, Apple (AAPL) and its partner China Unicom(CHU) In the other corner, wearing the Chrome trunks, Google (GOOG) and its partner China Mobile (CHL). That’s the lineup that’s about to cross...China's new bubble is still inflating; when it busts the damage will be worst outside China, I fear
Even the go-for-broke gamblers on the Shanghai stock exchange are getting worried. On July 29 rumors that the Chinese central bank was going to step on the brakes sent that market down 5%. The next day stocks made up part of that loss by tacking on 1.7% as the...Chinese stocks crack: Time to go bargain hunting–in Brazil
The Shanghai Composite stock index closed down 5% on July 29. The intraday damage was worse with stocks down 7% at one point. The rout wasn’t surprising. The Shanghai market was up almost 80% for 2009. And rumors have been swirling in recent days that officials...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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