June 16, 2010 @ 12:42 pm | Leading Indicators |
This is what China’s real estate and stock markets are afraid of. On June 16 Henderson Land Development (Listed in Hong Kong as 0012.HK) announced that the sale of 20 luxury apartments had collapsed as buyers pulled out. The company said it had cancelled $342 million...
June 15, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
The big picture, macro reasons for putting more emerging market stocks in your portfolio are compelling enough. But you don’t need to buy into the top down macro argument. The micro, stock-by-stock reasons are just as compelling. Put a developed economy stock up...
June 11, 2010 @ 8:30 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
If the bull market that ended in 2000 the bear market that began in 2000, the bull market that began in 2003, the bear market that began in 2007, and the possible bull market that began in 2009 and that may or may not have ended in 2010 teach investors anything, it’s...
June 10, 2010 @ 9:57 am | Leading Indicators |
So far yesterday’s China leakers are one for one. Yesterday Reuters reported that according to three unnamed people a government official had told an investment conference that May consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.1%, exports jumped 50% in the month, and...
June 9, 2010 @ 4:15 pm | Leading Indicators |
If only this leak is correct. Reuters is citing three unnamed people who report that a government official told an investment conference that May consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.1%, exports jumped 50% in the month, and new loans totaled $92 billion. If...
June 7, 2010 @ 12:40 pm | Leading Indicators |
In my June 3 post “Think China’s bear market is a buying opportunity? Here’s one way to tell when to get in” https://jubakpicks.com/2010/06/03/think-chinas-bear-market-is-a-buying-opportunity-heres-one-way-to-tell-when-to-get-in/ I said watch the proposed $30 billion...
June 3, 2010 @ 9:42 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
Have I got a China indicator for you. Like a lot of investors I think the selloff in Chinese stocks marks a buying opportunity—sometime in 2010. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 22% in 2010 and the market is deep into bear market territory. But that doesn’t mean...
May 31, 2010 @ 11:48 am | Leading Indicators |
Workers struck Honda’s transmission factory in Foshan, China, ten days ago. The most amazing thing about the strike, which forced Honda to suspend production at its four joint-venture assembly plants in China, is that we know about it at all. Most strikes in China...
May 18, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
On May 11 China’s stock market slipped into official bear market territory so quietly you’d think it was no big deal. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.9% putting it down 21% from its November 23 high. What’s next? Predictions fall into two diametrically opposed...
May 17, 2010 @ 6:38 pm | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
In August 2007 only one Chinese wind turbine maker, Xinjiang Goldwind, made Merrill Lynch’s list of the top ten wind turbine makers in the world. In 2010 two Chinese companies Xinjiang Goldwind and Sinovel Wind Group both make the top 5. Sinovel has climbed to No. 3...
May 13, 2010 @ 1:15 pm | Leading Indicators |
China is starting to consider the unthinkable: a local property tax. Shanghai’s city government is talking about instituting the country’s first tax on real estate. The Xiaoxiang Morning Herald, based in Hunan province, today reports that the city is considering a...
May 11, 2010 @ 11:26 am | Leading Indicators |
Meanwhile back in China… The Shanghai Composite Index fell another 1.9% on May 11 putting Chinese stocks in bear market territory. The index is now down 21% from its November 23 high. The index is now down 19% for 2010 making it the worst performing market in the...
May 4, 2010 @ 12:33 pm | Leading Indicators |
Growth in the manufacturing sector slowed in China April. At least according to the most comprehensive private sector survey of manufacturing activity. Mind you, numbers released by the government on May 1 show that growth in the sector is still accelerating. Which is...
May 4, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
So what do you do if you’re a car maker with a home market that’s not buying as many cars as it used to? If you’re General Motors (GM), you invest as fast as you can in making and selling cars in China. Great plan. So great that Toyota (TM), and Nissan, and Volkswagen...
April 28, 2010 @ 6:48 pm | Leading Indicators |
U.S. stocks tested 11,000 on the Dow Jones Industrials again. Successfully again. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index and the NASDAQ Composite index held near last week’s lows of 1150 for the S&P 500 and 250 for the NASDAQ. All in all a reasonably promising...
April 16, 2010 @ 10:30 am | Leading Indicators |
I love a good dither. Especially when it’s cloaked in language that makes it sound like decisive action This morning’s headline in the Financial Times reads “Beijing acts over housing bubble.” Sounds like China did something significant to control an inflating asset...
April 15, 2010 @ 10:30 am | Leading Indicators |
In the first quarter China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 11.9%, according to official statistics released today, April 15. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting growth of just 11.7%. Remember the days when investors worried that a 10% growth rate would...
April 13, 2010 @ 9:00 am | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
High dividend yields are showing up in some unexpected places. Like Asia. If you think anything like I did just a scant few months ago, you wouldn’t dream of looking to Asian stocks for high dividend yields. Most likely, you think of them like I did, as resembling the...
April 7, 2010 @ 12:30 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Now this seems like a bad idea. Some of China’s iron ore traders are suspending imports of ore from Vale (VALE), Rio Tinto (RTP), and BHP Billiton (BHP), the three companies that dominate the world’s iron ore production. The decision to stop importing ore, China’s...
April 7, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, will sell three-year bills for the first time since June 2008. The sale is a likely precursor to either an increase in official interest rates by the central bank or an end to the renminbi/dollar currency peg. In...
March 23, 2010 @ 2:52 pm | Leading Indicators |
Strange doings in China. And they should have you scratching your head and asking “How do you invest in this market?” I’m not talking about Google’s (GOOG) decision to stop self-censoring its China search engine and retreat to Hong Kong in the hope, delusional I...
March 22, 2010 @ 3:04 pm | Leading Indicators |
You’ve been warned about the next bubble. (Don’t panic yet. It looks like it’s a way off.) A recent survey of 109 institutional investors based in Asia and Europe, commissioned by Fidelity from the Economist Intelligence Unit, shows that 63% of respondents plan to...
March 19, 2010 @ 3:35 pm | Leading Indicators |
The inflation news from the United States was absolutely benign yesterday, March 18. Can’t say the same for a big piece of the developing world. Inflation is on the loose from China to India. The only question is Will somebody important to the global economy wreck...
March 15, 2010 @ 9:37 am | Breaking News |
So much for that then. In remarks that put a period to the annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress Premier Wen Jiabao said that China’s currency is not undervalued. “We oppose all countries engaging in mutual finger pointing or taking strong measures to...
March 12, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
Is China broke? Seems a silly question right? China’s foreign exchanges reserves stood at $2.4 trillion at the end of 2009. Yes, China announced that its proposed annual budget for 2010 would have a record deficit, but the deficit is just $154 billion or 2.8% of...
March 11, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Bad news on inflation from China last night could give global stock markets the jitters today, March 11. Higher than expected consumer price inflation in February at an annual rate of 2.7% is likely to revive fears that Beijing will try to slow the speed of economic...
March 10, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
It quite likely puts off any move to allow its currency to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, but news that China’s imports were up 45% in February 2010 from February 2009 is great news for the still struggling economies of the developed world. Growth in China’s...
March 9, 2010 @ 9:30 am | Breaking News |
Who knew? That there’s a renminbi futures market even though the Chinese government strictly limits such trading in its currency. Hedge funds and other traders use the NDF market—that stands for non-deliverable forwards—to hedge against or to speculate on moves in the...
March 8, 2010 @ 2:31 pm | Leading Indicators |
In trying to read the tea leaves of China’s economic and monetary politics, you have to pay as much attention to the Who as to the What of any official statement. So while it’s significant that anyone in the Chinese government is making noises about China abandoning...
March 4, 2010 @ 12:55 pm | Leading Indicators |
What looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, but doesn’t walk like a duck? A lame duck, of course. Watch tomorrow’s state of China address and the policies announced by the National People’s Congress to see if Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao fits that description. My bet is...