China and the U.S. are increasingly at odds on currencies and the global economy as the stage shifts from the IMF to the G20
The annual meeting of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) ended with the U.S. accusing China of keeping the yuan artificially low and with China accusing the U.S. of flood merging markets with hot money by keeping its interest rates near 0%. I think Brazil got it...Will China rebalance its economy? The Communist Party meeting that starts on October 15 will tell
More of the same growth at all costs plan or something different? That’s the big question that will be fought out when China’s leaders meet for the Communist Party’s annual get together from October 15 through 18. The meeting will set China’s next five-year economic...Is a new, Chinese bid for Potash of Saskatchewan about to arrive?
This week or next will see a bid from China for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), Canada’s Globe and Mail is reporting. The newspaper’s sources say Beijing is now deciding which of the proposed bids from China’s state-owned companies it should back. Pending Chinese...Even higher reserve requirements on the way for China's banks?
That didn’t take long. Just a few days after data showed that China’s banks were making new loans at a rate that would make a joke out of the government’s target of no more than $1.1 trillion in new loans in 2010, the country’s banking regulators are at work on a...China's manufacturing picks up–maybe.
But what does it mean? Time to get out the thumbscrews and the Spanish boot and torture the data. Numbers released on September 1 showed manufacturing rebounding in China for August after a weak July. It could mean that China’s “slowdown” won’t be as slow as feared....China's regulators to China's banks: Liar, liar, pants on fire
Even China’s banking regulators don’t believe these numbers. And now they’re saying so in public. Concerned about run-away lending at the country’s banks, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, has asked them to conduct an increasingly harrowing series of stress...China's banks start to samba with Petrobras deal
Another sign of how fast the global financial markets are changing. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY.PK) will be one of the investment banks running the book for the $32 billion share offering of Petrobras (PBR). This will be the first time a Chinese...If you're looking for a slowing real estate market in China, you sure won't find it in Hong Kong
Traders and investors hoping that China will soon loosen financial restrictions designed to cool China’s real estate market won’t find any good news in the August 30 land auction in Hong Kong. A parcel in Kowloon Tong went for $165 million in an auction run by Hong...China is creating bank capital out of thin air–and that's not good
You’ve got to give China’s most recent effort to increase the capital of China’s largest banks big points for chutzpah. That’s not exactly an endorsement for these banks as investments, however. Or of the soundness of China’s troubled banking system. On August 24...Update Ctrip.com (CTRP)
It’s tempting to say that the 6% drop in Ctrip.com’s (CTRP) shares on August 10 after the company’s August 9 earnings report was just the usual selling on the news by momentum investors who are unhappy that the company only beat Wall Street estimates by 2 cents a...McDonald's financial secret sauce contains yuan
Want some yuan with that Big Mac? On August 19 McDonald’s (MCD) became the first foreign non-financial company to sell yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. The U.S. company sold 200 million yuan (about $30 million) of 3% notes due in September 2013. Standard Chartered...The new global supply chain means pain for many and opportunities for a few
Foxconn International Holdings, the publicly traded subsidiary of Hon Hai Precision Industry, the world’s largest electronics contract manufacturer, is moving its iPhone production to Zhengzhou in China’s Henan Provence. The company is also moving its iPad...China's new bank stress test is so tough it signals trouble ahead
Now that’s a stress test. Bank regulators in China said on August 5 that the country’s stress test of its banks will include a worst-case drop in real estate prices of 50% to 60% in the country’s most speculative markets. Take that Euro Zone and even the United...Update Coach (COH)
(I’m on vacation until August 24. During that time Jubak Picks will operate on a reduced schedule of one or two posts a day. I will resume a full posting schedule after I return.) For a while the slowdown in North American sales—because of the U.S....Can China's biggest companies become true global players?
The next six months will test the power—and the limits of that power—of China’s global champions. First, sometime in early 2011 California will decide what company will build the high-speed rail link between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The Japanese companies that...China now the world's biggest consumer of energy
Who is now the biggest energy user on the planet? Not the United States anymore. The U.S. economy is now No. 2, according to the International Energy Agency. In 2009 China took over the No. 1 spot consuming 2.25 billion metric tons of oil equivalent. The U.S. consumed...China's currency moves a little closer to challenging the dollar
(Jim Jubak is on vacation until August 24. During that period I’ll post just once or twice a day on JubakPicks.com. I will resume a full schedule for JubakPicks after August 24.) The renminbi is coming. The renminbi is coming. At this pace it may take a decade...China and U.S. credit rating companies step up their name calling
I hope that China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating, the largest credit rating company in China didn’t think that Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings, and Moody’s were going to sit quietly and take it after its head Guan Jianzhong called them names. If you missed it,...Update Johnson Controls (JCI)
Forget about the penny miss in quarterly earnings. Put a failure to increase guidance for the full year on the back burner. Wall Street seems to be nervous about the long-term direction of Johnson Controls (JCI). At a time when exposure to China is a worry rather than...If China were to have a real estate bust, what would it look like?
The consensus is that China has a real estate bubble. The only argument is whether it will burst in some crash that will take down China’s economy or come in for a relatively soft landing that slows China’s economic growth but in no measure extinguishes it. It’s tough...Beijing delivers a profit to big investors in first day of trading for Agricultural Bank of China offering
Shares of Agricultural Bank of China climbed on the Shanghai stock exchange in the first day of trading after the company’s IPO (initial public offering.) The gain was only 0.8% for the day, but that’s impressive enough since the Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.9%...Does China have a bigger bank lending problem than the official numbers show? Stock markets won't like that
Everybody assumes that official Chinese economic data is cooked. Lower level officials tell their bosses what they think they want to hear. The bosses in turn try to move markets and regulate the economy by their own manipulation of the data. After all it’s a whole...So remind me–why are we so worried that China's economy will slow big time?
What exactly don’t investors understand about the phrase “command economy”? I’ve been pondering that question as I watch global financial markets retreat on worries that economic growth in China is going to slow precipitously. I just don’t think that kind of surprise...Growth? Slowdown? Watching the data drift while waiting for China's GDP report on Thursday
All eyes will be on China’s second quarter GDP numbers when they’re announced on Thursday. Will China’s economy show something like the 11.9% growth of the first quarter (Danger, Will Robinson), or a big drop to 8% (Worryingly too slow) or come in just right? The...China's stock markets pass a test: Agricultural Bank looks like it raised more than $19 billion
Unnamed sources have told Bloomberg that Agricultural Bank of China will raise $19.2 million in its IPO (initial public offering) after pricing its Hong Kong shares at HK$3.20 and its Shanghai shares at 2.68 yuan. Neither the company nor either stock exchange has made...Markets get spooked now that China is delivering exactly the slow down they wanted
Be careful what you wish for. Financial markets have been hoping that China would manage to slow its economy–in order to keep inflation under control—without causing a crash in either the stock or real estate markets. There’s mounting evidence that China is...My "buy indicator" for China's stocks takes another step forward
Agricultural Bank of China priced the Shanghai portion of its IPO (initial public offering) today at 2.52 yuan to 2.68 yuan a share. The Hong Kong portion of this IPO priced last week. Today’s announcement keeps the deal on track for a mid-July offering. (I’ve...So much for any hopes for quick appreciation in China's currency
Day 2 isn’t nearly as positive as Day 1. A day after the Chinese government announced that it would end its policy of keeping its current strictly pegged to the U.S. dollar, the world is getting an object lesson in exactly how slow any appreciation in the Chinese...China gets a big bang for a tiny change in its yuan-dollar peg
Score it “Stability” 4, “Flexibility” 3. That’s the count for how many times China used each word in announcing that it would end the peg that kept the price of its currency fixed to the price of the U.S. dollar. China made it very clear, I think, that an end to the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!