Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Watch the Yuan
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirtieth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Watch the Yuan This week’s Trend of the Week: Watch the Yuan. China controls one of the two largest treasury portfolios in the world, and the strength of the yuan affects treasuries...
China’s economy staggers in June quarter
China’s economy grew at just a 0.4% rate in the June quarter. Thanks to a Pandemic lockdown that covered 350 million people, China’s GDP grew at the second lowest rate ever recorded. Shanghai’s economy, for example, contracted by 13.7% in the second...
Happy Earth Day! China will build 18 new coal power plants abroad and increase domestic coal production by 300 million tons in 2022
A study published today, Friday April 22, from the Center on Research on Energy and Clean Air says that at least 18 new coal plant projects abroad will probably go ahead despite China’s pledge to stop building coal power plants overseas. The plants have secured...
Jim’s Extra!! China after the coronavirus: President Xi will be under intense pressure to stimulate the economy–will that mean a wave of stimulus?
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
Any surprises for investors in the Communist Party Congress that starts tomorrow in China?
On the one hand, the results of the 19th Communist Party Congress that begins tomorrow are completely predictable. Current president Xi Jinping will be elected to a new five-year term and when the dust has cleared from the once-every-five-years turnover of 70% of the...
Apple’s newest China problem
If you use an Android smart phone in Beijing, you can just tap it to pay for a ride on the city’s transit system. An iPhone? Forget it. Apple’s Phone uses ApplePay. And the company doesn’t grant access to third-party apps like those from Yikatong...
Are China and Brazil about to tank emerging markets? Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and sign up for your 30-days of free access to read today’s take on rising risk
What are you waiting for? If you haven’t signed up for my free offer of 30-day of access to my JubakAM.com site, why not? You don’t want to read about how political turmoil in Brazil and the downgrade of China’s debt are increasing the risk in...
Oil pushes higher on inventory report and global markets (except for China) follow
U.S. inventories of crude fell by 5.25 million barrels for the week ended May 5, according U.S. Energy Information Administration. Oil analysts had expected a smaller draw of 1.8 million to 2 million barrels. That was enough to fuel a big rally in oil prices with the...
China’s inflation rate at the factory level surges to 5.5% annual pace in December
Sort of OK news and bad news on inflation out of China over night. The Consumer Price Index rose by just 2.1% year-over-year in December. Economists had been looking for inflation to increase by 2.2%. A slower than expected increase in the price of vegetables, a key...
My forecast of the big events and macro trends for the year ahead: The 12 most dangerous months of 2017
I’ve got good news for all those who didn’t find 2016 volatile enough. Yep, 2017 looks likely to top 2016 for volatility. Hard to imagine, perhaps. Even though the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spent much of the year near multi-year lows, because...
China faces an increasingly frenzied, increasingly dangerous game of financial Whac-A-Mole
Where to begin? China faces a depreciating currency, a bond market that has switched from rally to sell off, huge outflows of cash, and what looks like a resurgence of inflation. Fixing one of these problems alone would be a huge challenge to the People’s Bank....
Did the Trump-China trade war heat up overnight?
Maybe it’s just coincidence. Random noise. Sound and fury signifying nothing. I hope so. But I fear not. Yesterday the director of Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission’s price supervision bureau told the state-run China Daily that its...
China’s yuan on collision course with Trump in 2017
$10 billion here. $10 billion there. And soon you’re talking about real money. China’s foreign exchange reserves fell $69.1 billion in November to $3.05 trillion, the People’s Bank of China said today. That follows on a $47.5 billion drop in October....
6 more points for my A-W investor’s guide to the post-Trump victory financial landscape
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to...
This “vulnerable” market looks to be shifting to a risk off stance
On the surface and if you look only at the market wide indexes, nothing much happened today. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, for example, finished just 0.31% lower–that’s 6.63 points–to 2132.55. But look at which assets and sectors...
Economy and financial markets point in different directions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Pity the poor Federal Reserve. In making decisions about interest rates–in this case about whether or not to raise interest rates at its June, July or September meetings–it has to consider the condition of both the real economy and the financial markets. And right now...
Voting heavy in Brexit referendum despite heavy rains in London and southeast
Despite torrential rains in London and the southeast of England, polling places are reporting long lines for today’s Brexit referendum vote. Before the actual vote, a BMG Research poll for the Electoral Reform Society found that 67% of people said they would...
UK voters decide to leave European Union–What’s next (Part 1 short term effects)?
By a surprisingly large margin of 52% to 48% the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit referendum. Global financial markets plunged in a decline all the more dramatic because traders and investors had decided on Wednesday that the...Rethinking emerging markets after Libya? Who isn't? Here's how that violence has changed my thinking.
Is the violence in Libya the last straw for the world’s emerging economies? Or at least for investors in those markets? I certainly think that the big drops in emerging market stock markets are leading some investors to abandon markets that they never felt all that...So why are there so many vacant jobs in China's exporting heartland?
They went home for the spring festival holiday in early February and the never came back. Short-term problem or long-term trend? That’s the question for anyone trying to predict China’s growth rate over the next decade or two. Across China factories are reporting...Even after an "adjustment" at 4.9% China's inflation is too fast
Call it the surprise that wasn’t very surprising. Before today’s release of consumer price inflation data for January in China, economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 5.4% annual inflation rate. That would have been a big increase from the 4.6% annual...Shanghai opens for trading again on Wednesday: Think that means more volatility?
Enjoy your last few days of calm. China’s mainland financial markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday until February 9. (Exchanges in Taiwan and Vietnam are closed until February 8.) But if trading in Hong Kong, which resumed today, is any indication, the...Buy Baidu (BIDU)
Doing some catch up on this stock. I added Baidu (BIDU) to the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio https://jubakpicks.com/jubak-picks-50/ on January 18, but this is the first time I’ve had an opportunity to explain why in detail or to actually add it to the portfolio....China cooks the books: the official numbers understate economic growth
Everyone assumes that China cooks its numbers on inflation and GDP growth. (The rest of the world’s governments, including that of the United States, would never do something like that. Wink, wink.) The January 18 report of fourth quarter GDP growth and December...Update Johnson Controls (JCI)
Let me use Johnson Controls (JCI), which reported quarterly earnings on January 20, as another concrete example of how to think your way through what to do about individual stocks when the U.S. market seems to be looking for a 5% pullback and overseas markets have the...China GDP growth of 9.8% socks stocks on inflation, tightening fears
Enough with the rumors and the leaks. This morning we have official numbers on economic growth and inflation from China. For the fourth quarter of 2010 GDP growth in China accelerated to 9.8%. That was higher than the 9.6% annual growth recorded in the third quarter...China's bond market doesn't believe inflation is under control
Yes, China has a government bond market. It even has a yield curve. And right now the bond market and the yield curve are signaling worries about inflation just ahead of the release of China’s report on fourth quarter GDP growth. Economists project that China’s...China still isn't serious about inflation and that's an increasing danger
Once more in to the breach, dear friends, once more. The People’s Bank of China yesterday increased the reserve requirements for China’s banks for the fourth time in two months. The 0.5 percentage point increase brings the reserve ratio for China’s biggest banks to a...What inflation fight? Bank lending and money supply soar in China
Nothing in these numbers to suggest that inflation in China is headed anywhere but higher. Or that China’s government has a handle on the country’s run away money supply growth. Chinese banks, as forecast, burst through the 2010 quota of 7.5 trillion yuan set by...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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