Inflation pauses in Brazil and so does the central bank; look for that to keep Brazil's economy cooking
Inflation is falling in Brazil. Through for the 30-day period through mid-August consumer inflation was just 4.44%. That’s the first time since January that inflation has been below the government’ target of 4.5%. Now the question is How long will the improvement...Update Petrobras (PBR)
Disappointment on Petrobras (PBR). Although it’s disappointment that investors will ultimately get over. The government is charging Petrobras more than expected to buy 5 billion barrels of oil reserves. (Pre-transfer the company has proven reserves of 15 billion...Cosan and Shell move, slowly, closer to creating the third largest ethanol (and from sugar cane not corn) producer in the world
It’s taking quite a while to get this one done. But the joint venture announced in February between Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) and Brazilian sugar and ethanol giant Cosan (CZZ) has finally moved to the signing of binding agreements. The deal, when completed, would create...Update Lan Airlines (LFL)
This deal is a huge expansion for Lan Airlines (LFL) that will turn Chile’s national airline into a truly South American airline. Lan will buy Brazil’s Tam (TAM) for $3.7 billion. Shareholders of Lan will own 70% of the combined company. (Tam will be delisted and the...Update Vale (VALE)
(I’m ratcheting up my vacation a notch next week for my annual summer recharge of my batteries and taking Jubak Picks completely dark for a week or so until August 24. I will resume my regular posting schedule when I return.) What was most interesting about...Update Ambev (ABV)
(I am on vacation until August 24. During that period JubakPicks.Com will operate on a reduced posting schedule of one or at most two posts a day.) The noose got a little tighter around Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo, Mexico’s largest beer maker. On July 12 the company...Brazil is winning its inflation battle faster than expected
Surprise! Brazil’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil, raised its benchmark Selic interest rate by only 0.5 percentage points yesterday to 10.75%. Expectations had been for a 0.75 point increase. The consensus is that the smaller than expected increase in rates is...Looking for good news today? Try Brazil
Good news out of Brazil today, June 29. (Yes, Virginia, there is good news somewhere.) I know. I know. The Brazilian stock market is taking it on chin this morning on worries about slowing growth in China. What do you expect? China is a huge export market for Brazil....Faster growth and cheaper too–what's not to like in emerging market stocks?
The big picture, macro reasons for putting more emerging market stocks in your portfolio are compelling enough. But you don’t need to buy into the top down macro argument. The micro, stock-by-stock reasons are just as compelling. Put a developed economy stock up...Inflation drops (a bit) in Brazil bringing an end to central bank rate increases just a little closer
Inflation dropped in Brazil in May. For the 12 months ended in May consumer prices rose at a 5.22% annual rate. That’s a drop for the 5.26% annual rate recorded in April. This is the first decline in Brazil’s inflation rate in seven months. The slowing of the pace of...Economic growth, policies to fight inflation, and now budget cuts in an election year from Brazil? Yes, Brazil
Where can you find financial responsibility and sound fiscal policies these days? Forget about the debt-ridden United States. Washington hasn’t even begun to address its deficit. The United Kingdom? The new Conservative/Liberal coalition government is still lying to...All the world's stock markets are breaking down (or so it seems) except for the U.S. market–so far
U.S. stocks tested 11,000 on the Dow Jones Industrials again. Successfully again. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index and the NASDAQ Composite index held near last week’s lows of 1150 for the S&P 500 and 250 for the NASDAQ. All in all a reasonably promising...Sell Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap (BRF)
With Brazil’s central bank likely to start raising interest rates at its April 27 meeting, I’m going to cut my short-term exposure to my favorite developing market–for the long term–by selling Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF BRF). I’m got an 8.3% gain...Brazil joins China on the road to higher inflation–and higher interest rates
China isn’t the only developing economy facing inflation pressures. Economists are projecting that consumer price inflation in Brazil will hit an annual rate of 5.2% this year. That’s well above the government’s target of 4.5%. The central bank is expected to start...Will April bring higher interest rates in Brazil?
Brazil is about to join China and India in fighting inflation. On March 17 the Brazilian central bank, Banco Central do Brazil, surprised pretty much every economist in the country by holding its benchmark interest rate steady. But that’s just raised their...How Vale spent $18 billion and shot itself in the foot
I always wonder what’s up when I see a normally quiet company begin tooting its own horn in ads. It’s almost never a good sign. Today’s (March 16) Financial Times has a full page ad from Vale (VALE) headlined “Vale also transforms minerals into awards.” The text notes...Update AmBev (ABV)
On March 4 AmBev (ABV) reported fourth quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew by 9.1% from the fourth quarter of 2008. Total net sales increased by 13.9% from the year-earlier period on an 11.6% increase in volume in Brazil....Brazil becomes a big player in the profitless global economic recovery
Want to know why this is going to be a profitless recovery? And not just in the United States either. Then look at the IPO (initial public offering) planned by OSX Estaleiros, a start-up ship building company. The March 19 offering aims to raise $5.6 billion. (For...Update Itau Unibanco (ITUB)
On February 9 Itau Unibanco (ITUB) reported a 72% jump in fourth quarter net income from the fourth quarter of 2008. Just as important in banking these days, credit quality improved. The percentage of loans more than 90 days behind in payment fell to 5.6% as of the...How to build a global portfolio: What countries do you want to own?
If you were building a global stock portfolio for the long run—let’s say 2020 and beyond—how would you weight the world’s stock markets? Personally, over that time period I’d pick India over China, Poland over India, and Brazil over them all. And I’d give U.S. stocks...Traders jumping on the Brazilan currency bandwagon
Guess there’s no such thing as a little volatility when it comes to the Brazilian real. In December traders were calling the real the world’s most overvalued currency. Now the consensus prediction, according to a Bloomberg survey of 19 currency analysts, is that the...Buy Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap (BRF)
I sold Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (BRF) out of Jubak’s Picks about 9% ago back on December 9, 2009, and now I think it’s time to re-buy. Well, actually I think Friday was a time to re-buy—before a recommendation from Goldman Sachs to buy the Brazilian real...China's stocks are still falling but other emerging markets aren't following so closely
For China’s stock markets, right now all news is bad news. Take new data from a survey of purchasing managers for January released by HSBC and Markit Economics released on Monday, February 1. The index, roughly equivalent to the survey of purchasing managers conducted...More pain in emerging markets but isn't that a good thing in the long run?
The correction in the world’s emerging stock markets continues. At noon in London today, January 27, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down 0.5%. That brings the index’s six day retreat, the longest slide in a year, to 7.8%. There’s just enough news of tighter...Buy AmBev (ABV)
I think this one fits the recommendations for how to invest in emerging markets now that I laid out in my post https://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/07/how-to-buy-into-emerging-market-stocks-now/ AmBev, or to give the company its full name Companhia de Bebidas Das Americas...How to buy into emerging market stocks now
Here’s the dilemma. Long-term emerging market stocks are going to beat stocks from the world’s developed economies like a drum. Everything right now points in that direction. Growth rates: For example, the United States looks likely to grow by 2% to 3% annually over...Brazil's economy sambas but its stock market sinks–bargains anyone?
Blame it on Greece. That country’s runaway budget deficit and the resulting downgrades to its sovereign debt from Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have spooked investors around the world into moving into U.S. dollars for safety and out of commodities and...How to escape the next lost decade
A lost decade. 1999 to 2009 sure qualifies for many investors in stocks. A lost decade to come? I can’t tell you what stocks or stock markets will perform best over the next ten years. But I can tell you that many U.S. investors are still sitting in portfolios that...To find the next McDonald's look to emerging markets
By 2015 one-third of companies in the Financial Times Global 500, a list that’s roughly the global equivalent of the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, will come from the world’s emerging markets, according to Bain & Co. Makes sense to me. Economic growth...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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