Emerging market crisis pulls in India, Indonesia
The bad news is that the emerging market crisis that has sent financial markets plummeting in Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil has added India and Indonesia to its list of victims. The good news is that the inclusion of India and Indonesia is exactly what analysts and...
Time to further lighten up on emerging markets: Selling Arcos Dorados out of Jubak Picks
Back when emerging markets started to break down, I sold my positions in Argentina. Then it looked like the damage might be limited to that country. Not though it’s clear that the whole sector is under pressure and that investors trying to avoid the next...
Are China and Brazil about to tank emerging markets? Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and sign up for your 30-days of free access to read today’s take on rising risk
What are you waiting for? If you haven’t signed up for my free offer of 30-day of access to my JubakAM.com site, why not? You don’t want to read about how political turmoil in Brazil and the downgrade of China’s debt are increasing the risk in...
When to profit from Brazil? What to do about OPEC next week? Use my free 30-day offer on my $199 JubakAM.com site (celebrating 20 years of Jubak Picks) to follow these profit opportunities this weekend
JubakAm.com doesn’t go quiet on most weekends. And this weekend is no exception. I’ll have posts on Saturday and Sunday about how to profit (and when to buy) from the turmoil in Brazil and how to position your oil holdings and portfolio ahead of next...
Oil pushes higher on inventory report and global markets (except for China) follow
U.S. inventories of crude fell by 5.25 million barrels for the week ended May 5, according U.S. Energy Information Administration. Oil analysts had expected a smaller draw of 1.8 million to 2 million barrels. That was enough to fuel a big rally in oil prices with the...
Vale sells fertilizer assets to Mosaic–time for this long-term stock pick to pay down some debt
Brazil’s Vale (VALE) has agreed to sell it fertilizer assets to Mosaic (MOS) for $2.5 billion in cash and stock. The price at 15 times trailing-12-month EBITDA (earnings before taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortization) is a good one given the continued...
Economy and financial markets point in different directions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Pity the poor Federal Reserve. In making decisions about interest rates–in this case about whether or not to raise interest rates at its June, July or September meetings–it has to consider the condition of both the real economy and the financial markets. And right now...
What are the chances that the Brexit polls are wrong?
To anyone getting all warm and cozy with the polls showing that voters will decide to stay with the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit vote, I’ve got just one word of warning: Michigan. Remember the Michigan primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders this...Rethinking emerging markets after Libya? Who isn't? Here's how that violence has changed my thinking.
Is the violence in Libya the last straw for the world’s emerging economies? Or at least for investors in those markets? I certainly think that the big drops in emerging market stock markets are leading some investors to abandon markets that they never felt all that...Inflation edges higher in Brazil–and government budget cuts are just the minimum expected
In spite of a 0.5 percentage point increase in its benchmark Selic interest rate to 11.25% and an increase in bank reserve requirements in December, inflation in Brazil failed to slow in January. The IPCA index rose 0.83% for the month, increasing the annual inflation...Sell Embraer (ERJ)
Doing some catch up on this stock. I dropped Embraer (ERJ) from the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio (see my post https://jubakpicks.com/2011/01/18/6215/ ) on January 18, but this is the first time I’ve had an opportunity to explain why in detail or to actually...Brazil's economy slows but bets are that interest rate increases aren't done
Will a second straight monthly drop in industrial production put Brazil’s interest rate increases on hold? December output fell by 0.7% from November. November’s output was itself down 0.2% from October. The drop came as a surprise to economists who were expecting...Sell Branco Bradesco (BBD)
This is a very tough call. If I owned more than one Brazilian bank stock, I might not sell Banco Bradesco (BBD) out of Jubak’s Picks today—but I don’t. If I had less exposure to Brazilian stocks in my Jubak’s Picks portfolio, I might not sell Banco Bradesco—but I own...Brazil's new central bank president steps on the brakes with a 50 basis point interest rate increase
Not as bad as the worst forecasts, but the January 19 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase from Brazil’s central bank does promise that Alexandre Tombini, new president of the Banco Central do Brasil, is going to aggressively raise rates to fight inflation....In Brazil's inflation fight January actions will speak louder than December words
Brazil’s President-elect Dilma Rousseff would like to convince the financial markets that she’ll keep her promise, made in her October 31 victory speech, to cut taxes, reduce government spending, and control inflation. Her two top financial appointments so far send a...Inflation hits Brazil hard, raising odds that interest rates will be headed to 12% in 2011
Just what investors need. Another economy and financial market to worry about. Now it’s Brazil. Although compared to the European debt crisis, this worry should be filed under “fret” rather than “panic.” Consumer inflation in Brazil jumped at an annual rate of 5.2% in...Buy Banco Bradesco (BBD)
At the beginning of November I wrote that I’d recommend buying Banco Bradesco (BBD), Brazil’s second or third largest bank (depending on what you measure) if the bank’s New-York-traded ADRs fell to $20. Well, they just about got there yesterday, November 16, closing...Go domestic with your international stocks
At the end of October China’s Communist Party formally endorsed the country’s new12th five-year economic plan. For 2011-2015 the plan envisions changing China from the world’s factory to the world’s market. During this period, China’s leaders intend to change the...Buy Cosan (CZZ)
Sugar prices, which had been at a 30-year high at the beginning of this week, went through their biggest sell-off in 30 years on Thursday, November 11. That gives us a chance to pick up shares of Cosan (CZZ), Brazil’s big sugar processor and ethanol producer on...Update Ambev (ABV)
Every quarter I think that the run in shares of AmBev (ABV) might be over. After all the stock is up 42% in 2010 as of November 8. But then the company does something to surprise me. And I decide that it’s worth staying on board. This time, the company said on...Watch for a chance to add Banco Bradesco (BBD) on a dip
Sell on the news isn’t limited to the U.S. markets. The preferred shares of Banco Bradesco (BBD), the second largest bank in Brazil by market cap, dropped 4% on October 27 in Brazil and the ADR fell 5.3% in New York after the company reported a 40% increase in...Brazil's presidential race seems to tighten; markets show slight preference for challenger Serra
The race for president of Brazil continues to tighten. Probably. At least the financial markets have started to react as if the challenger actually stands a chance. The vote comes on October 31. In a Vox Populi poll released on October 13 Dilma Rousseff, candidate of...Stock markets get the election jitters–and not just in the U.S.
It’s election season. No, no. I don’t mean just in the United States. You don’t need me to point out that your neighbor’s lawn is festooned with Vote for … signs. Or that TV is plastered with Don’t vote for… messages. Or that your inbox is full of “Contribute to…...Update Vale (VALE)
Looking for a big shareholder friendly Brazilian commodities play? I’d look right past Petrobras (PBR) where the Brazilian government took a bigger stake in the company (48%) after the company’s $67 billion share offering last week to Vale (VALE), the country’s big...Sure Petrobras raised $67 billion but here's why I think investors should see it as a failure
Cheers or brickbats for the Petrobras (PBR) share offering last Friday, September 24, in Sao Paulo? The Brazilian government is leading the cheers. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gushed on September 24 that Petrobras had successfully concluded the biggest sale...It's not just Japan: Brazil is trying to drive down the price of its currency too
Japan isn’t the only country to intervene in the markets in an attempt to drive down the price of its currency. Brazil’s central bank has moved to buy dollars and to sell the Brazilian real repeatedly in the last week. Until it fell on September 20 and 21, Brazil’s...Buy Gerdau (GGB)
Brazilian steel maker Gerdau (ADR: GGB) is on the march in the U.S. steel market and back home in Brazil. In the United States: in August, the company acquired the remainder of the shares of its 66% owned U.S. subsidiary Gerdau Ameristeel. That gives Gerdau a wholly...Update AmBev (ABV)
Shares of AmBev (ABV), the dominant beer maker in Brazil (69% market share), Argentina (76%), Bolivia (97%), Paraguay (96%), and Uruguay (97%), have been on a roll since the stock moved above its 50-day moving average on August 16. Shares are up 14% since August 13....Selling $81 billion in Petrobras stock may create bargains–elsewhere in Brazil
Call it the Petrobras effect: The planned sale of $75 billion—whoops, hold that—yesterday Petrobras announced it would sell an additional $6 billion–in stock by Petrobras (PBR) is weighing down the entire Brazilian stock market. And statements like this by Jeff...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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