How good is Fed chair Jerome Powell at herding cats?
It’s an extraordinarily busy week for the Federal Reserve–verbiage wise. Saturday, January 5, John Williams, head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed, and Mary Daly of the San Francisco Red all spoke. Today, January 7,...
Apple cuts revenue forecast, drops 7.6% in after-hours trading
Will Apple’s (AAPL) warning spook stocks tomorrow, Thursday, January 3, to a degree that bad economic news out of China didn’t today? After the close in New York Apple CEO Tim Cook dramatically lowered the company’s estimates for sales in the...
Why predicting a bottom for this bear is so hard: More lessons from the charts
Once stocks have wound up in the jaws of a bear market, the most pressing question is when/where will it end? Which is tough to predict because we have a relatively small data set to project from–we’ve only had 12 bear markets (using the 20% drop from a...
MGM Resorts International: That’s one ugly chart (and what that means for the market as a whole)
If you’re thinking of doing some bottom fishing in a belief that the bear market might be nearing a bottom or that the recent Santa Claus rally could last into the first half of January, I’d suggest you take a look at some charts, either of individual...
Here’s how on my paid sites I’m using Put Options in AMZN, NFLX, and BA to hedge against the bear
I don’t use options on this site or in any of the Jubak Picks portfolios. But I do in the Volatility Portfolio on my paid JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com paid sites. This week I’ve bought Put Options–which go up in price when the underlying...
Here’s how I’ve shifted my ETF portfolio allocations on my paid sites
On my paid sites, JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com I run and track a simple five ETF portfolio called, immodestly the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. In the last week, I’ve made the following shifts: Increasing my allocation to 25% in the Goldshares SPDR ETF...
The key to this bear market–it’s global; and any turn about will have to be global too
If you’re trying to figure out this market–and who isn’t?–down 700 points on the Dow on Monday; up 1000 on Wednesday, down 400 points on Thursday before finishing up 250 points, I’d suggest starting with the observation that this bear...
Markets blow a raspberry to Christmas–and Mnuchin
And Merry Christmas! to you too. The stock market delivered a lump of coal on Christmas Eve. (Does this mean the financial markets are part of the dastardly war on Christmas? Say it ain’t so, Goldman Sachs!) The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down...
Worst of both worlds from the Federal Reserve stokes continued selling
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve delivered the worst of both world’s, as far as Wall Street is concerned. And the 25 basis point increase in benchmark interest rates doesn’t even count–since that was what the market was expecting. First, the Fed drew...
What’s ahead for this market? Does it turn into a true bear?
If you own any of the big technology stocks that led the U.S. higher in the first eight months of 2018, the losses over the last six weeks sure make this feel like a bear market. Remember that the classical definition of a bear market is a drop from the high of 20% or...
Stocks that led the market up are now leading it down
Today Apple (AAPL) fell 3.96%. Facebook (FB) was down 5.72%. Amazon (AMZN) lost 5.09%. Netflix (NFLX) tumbled 5.45%. The big technology stocks that led the market up to historic highs are leading this fall off on a combination of general market nervousness and...Is it a bull? Is it a bear? A strategy for making the best of a market that's both
So this is a cyclical bull market rally of potentially up to three to four years’ duration inside a secular bear market steady decline of potentially 10 to 20 years? That’s what I argued in my post of February 19...Why even after a 70% gain this is still a secular bear market
This is still a bear market Even though stocks, measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index, were up 70% from their March 9, 2009 low to their recent high on January 19, 2010. Yep. Yes indeed. Absolutely. If by bear market you’re talking about what’s called...Why this isn't the start of another 10-year bull market
Absolutely brilliant table on Briefing.com this morning explaining why the rally off the March 9, 2009 low is a great short-term bull market but why longer-term the bear remains in control. The jargon for those who care is that this is a cyclical bull inside a secular...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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