Oil stumbles, banks retreat: So where’s the leader for the next rotation?
Oil prices fell today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate falling 1.29% to $50.64 a barrel and international benchmark Brent crude down 1.11% to $56.31 a barrel. Oil prices were even lower in the early going with West Texas Intermediate touching $50.23 a...
Economy and financial markets point in different directions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Pity the poor Federal Reserve. In making decisions about interest rates–in this case about whether or not to raise interest rates at its June, July or September meetings–it has to consider the condition of both the real economy and the financial markets. And right now...
Voting heavy in Brexit referendum despite heavy rains in London and southeast
Despite torrential rains in London and the southeast of England, polling places are reporting long lines for today’s Brexit referendum vote. Before the actual vote, a BMG Research poll for the Electoral Reform Society found that 67% of people said they would...
UK voters decide to leave European Union–What’s next (Part 1 short term effects)?
By a surprisingly large margin of 52% to 48% the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit referendum. Global financial markets plunged in a decline all the more dramatic because traders and investors had decided on Wednesday that the...Buy Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA)
The draconian reform of Spain’s undercapitalized caja banking sector is shaping up as a major opportunity for Spain’s big international banks Banco Santander (STD) and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). The biggest opportunity lies with Banco Bilbao, I think,...Update HDFC Bank (HDB)
Another day, another interest rate increase from an emerging economy central bank. On January 25, it was the turn of the Reserve Bank of India. The bank raised its benchmark repurchase rate to 6.5% from 6.25%. The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates six times...Sell Branco Bradesco (BBD)
This is a very tough call. If I owned more than one Brazilian bank stock, I might not sell Banco Bradesco (BBD) out of Jubak’s Picks today—but I don’t. If I had less exposure to Brazilian stocks in my Jubak’s Picks portfolio, I might not sell Banco Bradesco—but I own...Update JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Most of the time Wall Street’s attention is riveted on earnings per share. On January 14 when JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported fourth quarter financial results before the stock market opened in New York eyes were focused on revenue. That’s because now that the economic...Higher interest rates, lower bond prices–it's a new world
It’s a bond rout. On December 8, prices for U.S. Treasuries plunged and yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a six-month high of 3.33%. That’s a full percentage point higher than the October low. And it’s a shocking 0.76 percentage points above the yield...Update JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
With banks it’s the spread that counts. And it looks like the turmoil in the financial markets is expanding the spread between what banks have to pay for funds and what they can charge for their loans. That should add to bank profits in the fourth quarter. If you’re...Can Beijing fix its run-way bank lending problem? Does it really want to?
Important math yesterday, November 22, by the Financial Times’s James Kynge, the paper’s long-time China correspondent and author of the book China Shakes the World. Kynge notes that the official new bank loan total so far for 2010—a daunting 6.9 trillion renminbi in...And thoughts of bank dividends danced in their heads
One more test, and, if you pass, you can start paying dividends. That’s what the Federal Reserve told the 19 big banks that were the subject of the original stress test during the financial crisis. Financial statements and capital plans for the new test are due by...China raises bank reserves again–another increase in benchmark interest rates can't be far behind
If at fourth, you don’t succeed in slowing inflation, bank lending, and growth in the money supply, try a fifth increase in bank reserve requirements. Today, November 19, the People’s Bank of China announced that banks would have to increase the money they keep as...So exactly how serious is Beijing about slowing China's economy?
Have China’s biggest banks been banned from making further loans to property developers this year or not? The answer isn’t just of interest to real estate developers and investors who hold their shares. Lending policy in this sector is a good indicator of how serious...Buy Banco Bradesco (BBD)
At the beginning of November I wrote that I’d recommend buying Banco Bradesco (BBD), Brazil’s second or third largest bank (depending on what you measure) if the bank’s New-York-traded ADRs fell to $20. Well, they just about got there yesterday, November 16, closing...Buy Westpac Banking (WBK)
They have banks in Australia too. And a stronger economy and an appreciating currency against the U.S. dollar. And no government constraints on raising dividends if a bank wants to signal its confidence in the future. I’m going to use the weakness in Australian stocks...Financials come alive–raising the odds for a fourth quarter rally
I’ve posted repeatedly in the last few weeks that it would be hard for this rally to extend a lot further unless we got leadership from financial stocks. Financials jumped yesterday, November 4—and that may mark the leadership I’ve been looking for. The Financial...Welcome to central bank week–where the monetary policy fun never stops
Wednesday’s announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve—how much quantitative easing and when—kicks off what I‘d call central bank week. The most important central banks–among the developed economies anyway–are set to announce interest rate and monetary...Foreclosures slow to a crawl as banks are forced to refile faulty paperwork
So how much of a delay in foreclosures is the robo-signing fracas causing? Freddie Mac, the now essentially taxpayer owned company that with Fannie Mae, finances or guarantees about half of all U.S. mortgages, told the Financial Times on October 25 that its now taking...Buy Citigroup (C)
In the long term, I’m not especially interested in owning Citigroup (C). I think the bank’s consumer banking business, once it’s strength, has turned into an also ran. Its capital needs forced it to put its Smith Barney brokerage business into a strange joint venture...Look who wants their $47 billion back from Bank of America
PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management), BlackRock, MetLife, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Yes, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York wants its money back too) are working to force Bank of America (BAC) to buy back mortgages from its Countrywide Financial...U.S. banks' big problem even after the recovery: Where's the growth?
Here’s my big insight for today: U.S. banks have a big long-term problem. But not the one you’re thinking of right now. (Yes, I do have secret powers and can tell what you’re thinking—although only about bank stocks.) The headlines are full of news on robo signers,...Citigroup says it doesn't have a mortgage foreclosure problem
Only one big surprise in Citigroup’s (C) third quarter earnings announced before the New York Stock market opened October 18. No, not the penny a share in earnings above the Wall Street estimate of 6 cents a share. A slight positive surprise certain was a high...The mortgage foreclosure "robo signers" could cost banks big money–because of put backs
Add another word to English as spoken on Wall Street: robo signer. These are the folks at banks and mortgage servicing companies who signed hundreds of foreclosure documents a day. Frequently they didn’t read them at all. Even more frequently they didn’t bother to...Bank lending in China still out of control, threaten to blow out government quota for 2010
Lending by China’s banks rose again in September. That isn’t good news. It explains why the People’s Bank has reportedly decided to raise reserve requirements for six of China’s biggest banks another 0.5 percentage points to 17.5%. And I’ll bet that it will lead...JPMorgan Chase earnings show U.S. banks have a growth problem
It’s not as if bank stocks don’t have enough problems what with the horrible mess that they’ve made out of their mortgage business: If you can’t foreclose on a house because your paper work was signed by employees who never even read it, you’re in deep, deep trouble....Update Banco Santander (STD)
The fire sale goes on at Allied Irish Banks (AIB). On September 14 the company announced that it would sell its holdings in two Polish banks to Spain’s Banco Santander (STD). The deal will raise $3.2 billion for Allied Irish. Bank regulators have told Allied Irish,...Even higher reserve requirements on the way for China's banks?
That didn’t take long. Just a few days after data showed that China’s banks were making new loans at a rate that would make a joke out of the government’s target of no more than $1.1 trillion in new loans in 2010, the country’s banking regulators are at work on a...Buy JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Maybe you’re wondering why shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) were up 3.4% on September 13? The whole banking sector was up that day, of course, because the announced Basel III new banking regulations aren’t as strict as some investors had worried they would be. That’s a...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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