I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up.

So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again from $128.83 on August 28 to $102.83 on September 6.

But the shares are up again–15.83% last week–to $116.78.

This canary seems to be sending a rather more complicated message than “Look I’m dead! See my feet in the air?”

What’s the message, though?

I don’t think it’s the one making the rounds of the financial commentary. I don’t think we’re seeing these huge swings in the market because investors and traders are a bit more afraid of an economic downturn or a bit more hopeful/afraid that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points instead of 25 on Wednesday.

I think instead we’re seeing a warning about how difficult it will be to make a transition from the very loose helicopter-money regime of the last three Federal Reserve chairs.

All the evidence argues that the big market drops of August and September were a result of selling of dollar assets to repay yen borrowings that were part of the yen carry trade speculation. Huge amounts of money were bet on a continued weak yen and near 0% interest rates. And given the size of these speculative trades, it didn’t take more than a whiff of higher interest rates from the Bank of Japan–and a stronger yen–to send money flooding in the other direction.

I don’t think we’ve see all of the yen trade unwound. The Bank of Japan has strongly hinted at another interest rate increase in December and if that still looks likely as we approach that month, I think we’ll see another bout of volatility.

But that’s not the most important forecast. The unwinding of the yen carry trade is only one example of the kind of monetary event that we’re likely to see as the global monetary system struggles to find a new equilibrium.

I just wish I had a b