Select Page

At Wednesday’s meeting the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest-rate cut could come as soon as September.

“The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market,” Powell told reporters Wednesday. “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”

The Fed made several adjustments to the language of a statement released after its meeting, signaling they are closer to reducing borrowing costs. The Fed’s Openn Market Committee shifted to saying it is “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than prior words it used focused just on inflation risks.

“In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the committee’s 2% inflation objective,” the committee said in its statement. “The committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.”

Officials also tempered their assessment of the labor market, noting job gains had moderated and the unemployment rate has moved up, but is still low. They said inflation has eased over the past year but remains “somewhat elevated.”

Still, policymakers retained language that they didn’t expect it would be appropriate to lower borrowing costs until they had gained “greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward their target sustainably.

The futures market fully prices in a quarter-point reduction in for September. Which means that some on Wall Street see some chance of a bigger move.

However, when asked at the press conference about prospects for a half-point cut, Powell said at the press conference that it was “not something we’re thinking about right now.”

Powell told reporters he “can imagine a scenario in which there would be everywhere from zero cuts to several cuts” over the remainder of the year, “depending on the way the economy evolves.”

The Fed chief also said “there was a real discussion, back and forth, of what the case would be for moving at this meeting,” adding that “a strong majority supported not moving at this meeting.” But a number of former Fed officials and economists had urged the Fed to cut rates at this meeting, including former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder and former New York Fed President William Dudley.