Sometimes the words are worse than the numbers. And that’s the case with Deere’s (DE) November 25 guidance for fiscal 2010, which began on November 1, 2009.
The company said fiscal 2010 earnings would come in at $2.12 a share on a 1% decline in sales. First quarter fiscal 2010 sales will be down about 10%, the company projects.
That’s no big deal and I’d be inclined to sit those numbers out and wait for the turn in Deere’s business that everyone expects in fiscal 2010.
Except for the words that the company used in describing fiscal 2010 sales. Those words lead me to sell Deere out of my 12-18 month Jubak’s Picks portfolio. I’m keeping the stock in my long-term Jubak Picks 50, however.
Here’s why I’m selling today.
You see Deere projects that sales in its farm equipment business will continue to fall in 2010 by about 4%. North American sales will be down 10% for the year. That means the turn in the farm equipment business is a little further off than everybody, myself included, was hoping.
Fiscal 2010 results would be much, much worse, however, except that Deere is projecting an 18% increase in sales in its construction and forestry unit.  But even though sales will increase by a healthy percentage in fiscal 2010, the reasons for the increase aren’t especially healthy. Deere doesn’t see any pick up in end demand in this market. Most of the increase will come from restocking of inventory. And the business will still show a negative operating margin. (In other words, Deere will lose money on every sale in this business unit.)
Obviously, this sell has something to do with my worry that growth in 2010 will b e slower than now projected. For the thinking of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on growth see my post https://jubakpicks.com/2009/11/23/whoops-either-the-fed-or-the-european-central-bank-is-wrong/ )
With the stock in the neighborhood of my target price of $56 a share by July 2010, as of December 1, 2009 I’m going to sell Deere out of the Jubak’s Picks portfolio. I have a 9.5% gain since I added it to that portfolio on January 12, 2007.
Full disclosure: I will sell my shares of Deere out of my personal portfolio three days after this is posted.
Couldn’t have put it better, hotair. It’s a question of farmers discrminating among discretionary expenditures when times are tight. At this point it looks better to put off buying a new tractor than it does cutting back on fertilizer application for another year. Especially since fertilizer prices have come down.
When fertilizer prices are high and crop prices are low or uncertain smart farmers cut back on input costs to make a profit.
Thanks, hotair.
RE: lakesider:
Farmers are delaying equipment purchases to conserve cash and buy farm land while the real estate market has pulled back. Cutting inputs like fertilizer is only done by the most desperate of farmers as it ultimately cuts production both in the current year and in future years. The viable alternative to commercial fertilizer is manure and compost, but that is always in short supply.
PS- I did notice that Yara has been flying lately; that could end as quickly as it started.
Jim, in your update of Yara a couple of weeks ago, you indicated that demand for fertilizer had the nitrogen producers operating near capacity, which would be a positive for potash producers. You also stated that Yara expected potash prices to drop a bit before leveling off.
My question is, with Deere projecting lousy farm equipment sales, would that spill over into demand for other farm products, or are the demands for equipment completely separate from demand for fertilizer? It seems to me that if farmers are still skimping, they will skimp accross the board as they have been. The 2009 crop was still pretty good, after all, wasn’t it?
Jim, May I ask what % cash do you now hold with this sell.
I pulled the trigger right after the cramer bounce
thanks Jim, I wish that was the case, just got lucky on this one.
terryw, your timing is much better than mine, I see.
sold! at about 30% gain, hope to get back into DE in the future.