The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January.
The core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices (on the theory that people really don’t have to eat or drive cars to, I don’t know, get to work maybe) rose at an annualized 5.2% rate in January. That compares to a 4.9% rate of increase in December. Economists were looking for an increase to 5.2% in the core rate for January.
On the not-so-far-from projections inflation news, a drop in oil prices resulting from Russian oil escaping sanctions for now, and some, possible, slowing of he Russian advance in Ukraine, this morning stocks extended yesterday afternoon’s rally. As of the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 2.24% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 2.51%. The NASDAQ Composite was ahead by 1.64% and the small cap Russell 2000 was higher by 2.25%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat on the day at 1.96, just below the closely watched (but essentially meaningless) 2.00% level. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, more sensitive to sentiment on Federal Reserve moves, was at 1.57%, down from 1.58% yesterday.
U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 1.31% to $91.59 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude was off 1.16 to $97.93.
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility index (VIX) fell 9.00% to 27.59 as fear took a (short?) break.
