On December 13 the European Central Bank will decide whether to cap its $2.9 trillion program of bond buying as planned. The bank had decided that Europe’s economy was strong enough for the central bank to wind down its purchases of bonds that have kept interest rates down in the EuroZone and depressed the value of the euro, lending support to EuroZone exports. An end to the bond buying would, it’s likely, be accompanied by a rally in the euro that would, in turn, weaken the dollar and push U.S. interest rates higher. And that would at least slowdown the dollar-carry trade (of borrowing at low interest rates in the United States to buy global assets.)
The problem for the central bank is that recent data have hinted that European economies may not be as strong as the bank had earlier assumed and that the EuroZone still needs more stimulus to head off a slowdown.
Central bank President Mario Draghi is set to speak on Monday, today, in front of the European parliament. He can expect a grilling on the state of the European economy. Making his speech all the more attention grabbing, it will come just hours after the release of the German IFO survey of business confidence. Numbers on Friday showed the weakest private-sector growth in almost four years. Italy, which is fighting with the European Union about the size of its budget deficit, will report its own confidence numbers on Tuesday and then hold a bond auction on Thursday that will summarize market reaction to the data and to the fight with the European Union.
The central bank will publish its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review the same day. The week then ends with the last read on EuroZone inflation before the bank’s December 13 policy meeting.
The bank goes into  one-week quiet period before that December 13 decision so the reading of tea leaves gets packed into the up to the meeting–which means this week and next.
