The options market is implying the S&P 500 Index will move 1.2% in either direction Thursday morning on the report on U.S. initial and continuing claims for unemployment.
The options market is pointing to about that same level of potential volatility on August 14–the next reading on consumer prices–and August 29, the day after Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report.9Please note that the implied volatility is either up or down.)
Traders are looking to the weekly jobless claims figures, due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, for clues as to whether the labor market is weakening further after Friday’s jobs report showed that the unemployment rate rose to an almost three-year high in July.
Volatility does tend to beget more volatility as traders made nervous by past market moves make bets intended to stave off the effects of potential future volatility.
On Monday a broad market selloff pushed the S&P 500 to the brink of a correction, or a nearly 10% drop from its July 16 all-time closing high. The S&P 500 has since recovered some of its losses and currently sits about 6% away from its peak.
After rising by the most in nearly a year in last week’s report, initial claims are forecast to fall by 9,000 to 240,000 in Thursday”s report for the week ended August 3, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Most of the increase in the prior week’s report was tied to annual auto-plant shutdowns and Hurricane Beryl, with claims elevated in Texas, the state that bore the brunt of the first major hurricane of the season.
Jim – for full time jobs context & quantitative perspective, 240,000 jobs is 0.18% (240k/133.4M total US full time jobs as or May 2024). Sensitivity analysis would suggest this is such a marginal percentage and just a very small differential between expected & actual is an unjustified non-linear reaction in either direction (i.e., it should have NO EFFECT – just random noise).