Yesterday, Wednesday, November 27, the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, had continued the stall that began in May. In October the headline number showed inflation up at a 2.3% annual rate. That was a slight increase from the 2.1% annual rate in September. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, rose at a 2.8% annual rate, that’s a slight increase from the 2.7% rate where core PCE inflation has been stuck since May. On a monthly basis, the core PCE price index has advanced by 0.3% for two consecutive months. A monthly rise of about 0.17% would be necessary for inflation to fall to the Fed’s 2.0% annual target rate.

Rising services prices remained the driver of inflation in October. Prices for services rose 0.4% last month, while goods prices fell 0.1%. Compared with a year earlier, services prices jumped 3.9% and goods prices were down 1%. That’s not good news since U.S. consumers spend roughly twice as much on services as they do on goods.Food prices were unchanged during the month and up 1% from a year earlier. Energy costs were one area of relief for consumers, as they ticked down 0.1% in October and are now down 5.9% year over year.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis point cut in the Fed’s target short-term interest rate at its December 18 meeting stood at 66.5% on Wednesday.