The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021. The Conference Board’s index fell 7 points in February to 98.3, marking the third straight decline, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A measure of expectations for the next six months also fell by the most in three-and-a-half years, while a gauge of present conditions declined more modestly.
The downward trend in this survey confirms results from the University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment that show rising expectations for future inflation and worry about the economy.
The drop in confidence in the Conference Board’s survey was broad across age groups and incomes. Consumers were more pessimistic about current and future labor-market conditions, as well as the outlook for incomes and business conditions. Perceptions of present and future financial situations worsened, and the share of respondents expecting a recession in the next year rose to a nine-month high.
“References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “Most notably, comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
Inflation expectations over the coming year increased to the highest since May 2023, reflecting the recent jump in the cost of eggs as well as anticipated higher prices from Trump’s planned tariffs. U.S. consumers’ long-term inflation expectations in a separate report from the University of Michigan released last week rose to the highest level in almost three decades.
