Can you say rollercoaster?
In 2022, the biotech company generated sales of nearly $18.9 billion, all of it from sales of its Covid-19 vaccine but it expects revenue of only $4 billion this year.
On February 14, 2023, shares sold for $175.62. On $86.04 on February 14, 2024 they traded at $86.04.
On June 11, they closed at 148.39.
I added them to my Volatility Portfolio on my JubakAM.com subscription website at $157.10 on April 14,2023. That position was still down 5.54% as of the close on June 11. But I think the rally is still in its early stages.
Why the turnaround now?
On May 31, Moderna won U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mResvia. The company plans to launch mResvia this fall in time for the 2024-2025 RSV season in the U.S.
The peak global RSV vaccine market for older adults is projected at between $6 billion and $8 billion, with another $2 billion to $4 billion in peak annual sales for maternal and pediatric use. Moderna stands to claim a significant share of this market: Its RSV vaccine achieved a strong 83.7% efficacy in clinical studies.
RSV vaccine revenue alone will see the company return to sales growth next year.
Plus, the company has announced positive results from a late-stage study of its influenza vaccine mRNA-1010. It plans to file for approval this year. Moderna also expects to report results from a phase 3 study of its combination flu-COVID vaccine later this year.
In addition, Moderna is evaluating its cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine mRNA-1647 in a late-stage clinical study, which could report efficacy data as early as late 2024. CMV is the top infectious cause of birth defects in the U.S. and currently has no approved vaccines.
With Merck, Moderna is testing a combination of Merck’s Keytruda with Moderna’s experimental cancer vaccine mRNA-4157 in multiple phase 2 and phase 3 studies targeting several types of cancer. Based on phase 2 data, the partners could seek accelerated approval of the combo as an adjuvant therapy for melanoma.
And Moderna also expects to advance several other vaccines into pivotal studies, including Epstein-Barr virus vaccine mRNA-1189, norovirus vaccine mRNA-1403, and varicella-zoster virus vaccine mRNA-1468. And it’s on track to advance mRNA therapies targeting the rare diseases propionic acidemia and methylmalonic acidemia into studies this year.
