All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index inflation report for November due out on the morning of Wednesday, December 11. It’s the last big inflation data dump before the Federal Reserve meets on December 18.
In October, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2%, seasonally adjusted, and was up 2.6% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3% in October and was up 3.3% over the year.
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index for November 2024 to be up around 2.6% year-over-year. This figure would represent a slight increase from previous months–inflation remains stubbornly high. The monthly CPI increase is anticipated to be 0.2%, consistent with recent trends. Core inflation is expected to remain at a 3.3% year-over-year rate.
The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a 25 basis point cut at the December 18 meeting at 85.1% ON Friday. That meeting will coincide with the release of new projections by Fed members and staff of interest rates, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth for 2025 and 2026.
Those Dot Plot projections are likely to be more important than the Fed’s rate decision. The big question, after all, is whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2025 and how many times.
