In the Greek debt crisis it was relatively easy to track the exposure of national financial markets and banks to the crisis. The big issue was what non-Greek banks had bought the biggest share of Greek government bonds.

In the current emerging market crisis, it’s relatively harder to track what developed financial markets and banks might be most exposed to the trouble in Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, and India. This is a debt crisis in the more focused on the corporate market so there are more players (companies who borrowed in dollars especially) and the damage is  a result of cumulative loans to a lot of emerging market corporations rather than as a result of loans to a single national entity.

According to the McKinsey Global Institute, total global debt climbed to $169 trillion at the end of 2017 from $97 trillion at the start of the Great Recession in 2008.  McKinsey estimates that a record $10 trillion in corporate bonds must be refinanced over the next five years. With the U.S. dollar continuing to gain strength (making corporate borrowing in dollars more expensive to pay back) and interest rates rising in the United States (as a result of Federal Reserve policy) and in emerging financial markets (as governments try to defend local currencies) rolling over that debt will be way more expensive.

So what banks might be on the hook for the biggest part of the problem?

Damage assessments are very preliminary right now. This early picture, though, points to European banks as having the biggest exposure to Turkey’s problems. Spanish banks look especially vulnerable since they loaned Turkey more than $82 billion. I don’t have any figures on the exposure of Spanish banks to the Argentine crisis, but given the historical lending pattern between Spain and Latin America, I’d expect the numbers will show that Spanish banks have significant exposure to the crisis in Argentina too.

Spain’s IBEX 35 stock market index is down 5.3% from July 31 to the close, today, September 3.