The stock market is in the midst of euphoria at the prospect that unified Democratic control of the White House and Congress will mean more fiscal stimulus–those $2,000 checks for a start–increased aid to cities, and increased spending (maybe) on infrastructure and to combat global warming.
The bond market not so much. Yesterday the yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed above 1% and today, January 7, the 10-year yield is up another 4 basis points to 1.08%.
And Bloomberg is reporting Wall Street projections that the yield on the 10-year Treasury could move to 1.5%.
Fueling the fears are remarks from Federal Reserve officials this week that the Fed’s next move might be to either step up its program of bond purchases OR wind it down as the central bank did in 2013. In 2013 remarks from then Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke that the Fed might be considering a reduction in bond purchases set off a spike in bond yields and a drop in stock prices that has become know as “The Taper Tantrum.”
For example, today, January 7, Patrick Harker, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said that the Fed might begin reducing its bond buying from the current $120 billion a month rate as soon as the end of 2021. “I could see, potentially, that occurring at the very end of 2021 or early 2022,” he said after a virtual speech. “But it is all going to depend on the course of the economy, which will depend on the course of the virus. It could cause disruption in the markets if we try to do it too soon. So, I have many degrees of caution on this, to just be steady as she goes until we start to really see the economy healing.”
The Federal Reserve next meets on January 27.
