Just what investors need. Another economy and financial market to worry about.
Now it’s Brazil. Although compared to the European debt crisis, this worry should be filed under “fret” rather than “panic.”
Consumer inflation in Brazil jumped at an annual rate of 5.2% in the survey period that ended in mid-November. For the last 12 months the inflation rate is 5.47%. That’s the fastest pace for consumer inflation in 20 months.
The November increase raises the odds that Brazil will miss its inflation target of 4.5% plus or minus two percentage points for 2010. That would be the first miss for Brazil since 2003. And the jump almost assures that the country’s central bank, the Banco Central do Brasil, will resume its policy of interest rate increases in 2011. The bank had cut its benchmark Selic rate to 8.75%, the lowest ever, in early 2010 before beginning a series of interest rate increases that took the rate back up to 10.75.
At the start of those interest rate increases economists had been projecting that the central bank would raise rates to 11% in 2010 before going on hold. The Banco Central never quite reached that level as the euro debt crisis slowed the Brazilian economy enough to damp inflation. Or so the bank believed. Economists are now projecting that the central bank will take interest rates to 12% by the end of 2011.
An interest rate of 12% isn’t a huge issue for Brazil’s economy. The country is used to double-digit interest rates.
But Brazil’s hard won reputation for monetary discipline is on the line. If the central bank doesn’t act aggressively to tame inflation, Brazil can kiss goodbye to improvement in its credit rating. Brazil’s credit rating hit investment grade in 2008 for the first time ever.
This is actually the first major test of President-elect Dilma Rousseff. The bond market is skeptical that Dilma will act to cut Brazil’s bloated government workforce after she takes office on January 1. The bond futures market is currently betting that interest rates will hit 13% by the end of 2011, substantially higher than the consensus of 12% among economists.
Investor expectations are rising for inflation too. The difference in yield between the government’s inflation-linked and fixed-rate notes, rose to 6.78% on November 19.
I think you can look for a rocky few months for Brazil’s stock market as the Dilma administration is asked to prove itself. (And, of course, the euro crisis and uncertainty on China’s inflation and growth policies won’t make the going any easier.)
I have many Brazil investments and most seem to be going sideways for quite some time now. I have a feeling that their are better opportunities elsewheres presently. By the way I notice this in a lot of emerging markets.
bag,
I believe yx is referring to the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. It will create jobs by driving construction of stadiums and facilities to handle crowds, and bring a lot of international visitors during the games. The Olympics will also result in “free advertising” for Brazilian brands and the Brazilian economy, attracting investors who still aren’t familiar with the Brazilian story.
yx,
What is the Olympic effect in regards to investing?
When it comes Brazil, I think we have put the Olympic into consideration too. I think the Olympic effect can not be under estimated.
I would also be interested to know what you think about GGB now. I have invested in the recent downturn of that stock, but now am wondering if it is likely to continue to go down for a while.
Jim,
Additionally, with the huge run up on ABV, is it time to take some profits and redirect that $ to Us stocks for the short term.
How will this effect Banco Bredesco (BBD), Vale (VALE) and Cosan (CZZ)?
Jim,
How does this affect Gerdau (GGB) and your take on that stock? It has been sliding down slowly and with these inflation concerns, is it still a hold?
Thanks,
Bag