We’ve been here before. With gold and silver we’re at that stage in a huge rally where Wall Street analysts rush to increase their target prices in order to keep ahead of the market and where the number of posts urging investors to get in now–And here’s how!–multiply.
This stage doesn’t mean the rally is about to crash–excessive prices can always become more excessive–but this is the stage where prices run to levels that will assure that latecomers won’t make a profit.
Today, for example, Bank of America said that it is “feasible” that silver could hit $35 an ounce next year and reiterated its prediction that gold may reach $3,000 an ounce within 18 months.
This one ups a recent production from Goldman Sachs that gold would hit $2,300 an ounce and silver $30 a ounce.
Today at 1:30 New York time silver traded at $26.89 an ounce, up another 3.29%, and gold for December delivery hit $2050.50 an ounce on the Comex. Spot gold was at $2034.91 an ounce at that time.
I’d note that Barrick Gold (GOLD) was up 60.79% for 2020 to date as of 1:30 today and First Majestic Silver (AG) was up 69.91% in the last three months and 46.84% in the last month. It seems unreasonable to me to expect performance like that going forward.
Which doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t be willing to take another 10% or 25% gain in my gold and silver positions.
In my Jubak Picks Portfolio I own First Majestic, Barrick Gold, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). First Majestic was up 32.99% from my July 20, 2019 pick; Barrick Gold was ahead 84.10% from my June 21, 2019 pick, VanEck Gold Miners was up 46.84% from my August 14, 2019 pick, and the SPDR Gold Trust as higher by 47.12% from my September 11, 2017 pick.
Given my holdings, I don’t feel a need to add more gold or silver to my portfolios. But if I was looking to increase my positions, I’d favor silver here (because silver is a store of value and a metal with more industrial uses than gold). You might take a look at the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). My caveat is that the ETF is already up 45.38% for 2020 to date as of today, August 5, and has rocketed ahead 76.11% in the past three months. This is a late rally play to pick up late stage gains. You need to be ready to sell when you see signs that the rally is turning.
