Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s February 1 meeting show a central bank anticipating Federal Reserve further increases in interest rates in order to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
“Participants observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which was likely to take some time,” according to the minutes of the February 1 meeting released today February 22.
The minutes also said “almost all” officials agreed it was appropriate to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting, while “a few” favored or could have supported a bigger 50 basis-point hike.
A number of officials said that an “insufficiently restrictive” policy stance could stall recent progress on moderating inflation pressures, according to the minutes, suggesting they are prepared to move rates up further than their December forecast of 5.1%.
The minutes indicated the Fed was more concerned about the risk of inflation staying elevated than the economy slowing down or entering a recession.
“Participants generally noted that upside risks to the inflation outlook remained a key factor shaping the policy outlook, and that maintaining a restrictive policy stance until inflation is clearly on a path toward 2% is appropriate from a risk-management perspective,” according to the minutes.
After the release of the minutes, prices and yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury held steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 3 basis points to 3.93%.
But short Treasury prices fell and yields rose. The yield on the 12-month treasury rose to 5.05% from 5.02% yesterday. The yield on the 6-month Treasury bill climbed to 5.08% from 5.03% yesterday. The yield on the 3-month bill rose to 4.81% from yesterday’s 4.80%.
Stocks went into the day with most investors anticipating a hawkish tone from the Fed minutes. So prices moved only slightly. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.25% lower. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.13% and the NASDAQ 100 ticked 0.05% higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed up 0.08%.
