As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates at their current level of 0%-0.25%.
And there were very few changes in the central bank’s language.
But a few subtle shifts are worth noting, I believe.
The Fed said in early April that “We have also committed to keeping rates at this low level until we are confident that the economy has weathered the storm and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.” Today the Fed said, repeating language from its March post-meeting statement that it would keep the benchmark target range near zero “until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”
What’s new is that today the Fed began to extend step by step the time frame within which it sees the economic slowdown from the virus lasting. “The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the committee said.
Last I looked the “medium term” was longer than the “near term.” In effect the Fed was hinting, strongly, that rates will stay near 0% for a long time. This isn’t a one rate cut (even one very big cut) and done recession. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to keep rates near 0% for three or more years.
I thought the Federal Reserve might say something about monitoring the dangers of deflation but deflation didn’t get a mention in the Fed statement.
But inflation got little attention either. Here’s the only mention: “In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”
Commodity destruction will continue, specifically related to Oil. I am also surprised no mention of deflation. Jim, why not bullish on natural gas companies? The associated gas lost from well shut-ins and reduced drilling seems very bullish for the domestic gas pure plays. Thoughts?