With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That’s close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018.
While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant compared to the $4.4 trillion size of China’s total onshore corporate bond market, they’re enough to throw a solid dose of worry into China’s bond market. That’s because the corporate bond market is supported by a complex arrangement of cross-company and government guarantees that, historically, have protected companies from default. But now that defaults are rising and are a real possibility, bond holders and issuers are left wondering who will get rescued and which guarantees can be trusted.
The defaults stretch across an array of sectors. On Monday, for example, Peking University Founder Group, failed to repay a 2 billion yuan bond. The same day, Tunghsu Optoelectronic Technology Co., a maker of photoelectric display components, failed to deliver early repayment on both interest and principal.
The stress seems to be spreading to the off-shore bond market too. Tewoo Group Co., a major commodities trader from Tianjin, looks likely to default on a $300 million bond due December 16. That would make the company the most high profile state-owned enterprise to default in the dollar bond market in more than two decades.
In a report on Tuesday, Fitch said the default rate for bonds issued by non-state Chinese companies increased to a record 4.5% in the first 10 months of 2019, China’s corporate debt hit a record 165% of gross domestic product last year.
The other “interesting” implication of the rising level of defaults is the possibility that it will affect the thinking of Beijing officials negotiating the U.S.-China trade deal. With defaults rising, this wouldn’t seem to be a good time to further stress China’s export economy.
