February 1, 2011 @ 8:30 am | IEF, Leading Indicators, SYT |
Food prices are headed back to the historic peaks they hit in 2007-2008. Last time I wrote about food—on January 14–that was the headline. A little more than two weeks later that observation seems old hat. Events in Tunisia and Egypt—and elsewhere in the...
January 31, 2011 @ 5:23 pm | CHK, Leading Indicators |
Interesting pattern in today’s big winners on the New York Stock Exchange: the list is dominated by the names of relatively small, predominantly domestic energy producers. As of the end of trading in New York today you would have found these stocks among the big...
January 28, 2011 @ 8:30 am | IEF, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
Are you in the right sectors of the stock market for this point in the economic recovery? Solid data stretching back to 1945 show that certain industries and sectors outperform during specific stages of any economic recovery. No argument from me on that. I think...
January 26, 2011 @ 4:30 pm | IEF, Update |
What can I say? It could have been worse. And the company (as well as investors) dodged the big bullet. Boeing (BA) reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $1.56 a share including 45 cents a share in special items. Those special items included a 50 cents a share...
January 14, 2011 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators, SYT |
Riots in Algeria over the cost of sugar and wheat. Mexico’s government buys corn futures to hedge against rising tortilla prices. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh forced to arrange onion imports from traditional enemy Pakistan. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promises...
January 12, 2011 @ 12:41 pm | INTC, Sell |
Intel (INTC) will probably report a very good fourth quarter of 2010 on Thursday, January 13, after the market closes. The Wall Street consensus is looking for 50 cents a share. That would be up 22% from the fourth quarter of 2009. I think Intel is likely to make that...
December 22, 2010 @ 3:32 pm | BABA, Buy |
Shares of Baidu (BIDU), China’s leading Internet search provider, have been drifting lower since a November 11 high of $114.10—until yesterday. As of the close in New York, the shares had moved up to $101.25, a 2.5% gain on the day. The most recent part of the price...
December 21, 2010 @ 8:30 am | AMZN, Leading Indicators, SYT, You May Have Missed |
2011 is shaping up to be a volatile year. The euro debt crisis threatens to expand to include Spain—before Greece and Ireland have moved out of danger. The U.S. economy seems to be on a path of moderate growth but the end of spending from the 2009 stimulus package in...
December 16, 2010 @ 11:05 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
The euro debt crisis takes another bite at Spain and expands to Belgium. But German opposition to a bigger bailout fund has left the European Central Bank to fight the problem alone. So, prudently, the European Central Bank has decided to raise more capital. Today,...
December 1, 2010 @ 11:58 am | IEF, Leading Indicators |
A very impressive relief rally is in progress today. It’s built on real good news on the U.S. economy, higher than expected growth in manufacturing in China (which is good short-term and bad long-term), strong statements from the European Central Bank—and relief that...
November 30, 2010 @ 8:30 am | AMZN, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
When you’re being chased by a bear, you don’t have to run faster than the bear; you just have to run faster than the other guy. Good advice when you’re camping in bear country. Good advice, too, when you’re thinking about how to allocate your money in the current very...
November 22, 2010 @ 5:23 pm | IEF, Leading Indicators |
Ireland formally appealed for a rescue by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund on Sunday November 21. The European Union and IMF quickly agreed to the request. Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said he expects talks on the package to be completed in...
November 10, 2010 @ 1:03 pm | Buy, WBK |
They have banks in Australia too. And a stronger economy and an appreciating currency against the U.S. dollar. And no government constraints on raising dividends if a bank wants to signal its confidence in the future. I’m going to use the weakness in Australian stocks...
November 5, 2010 @ 10:30 am | CHK, Leading Indicators |
The U.S Chamber of Commerce had spent $35 million on the mid-term elections as of November 2, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. American Crossroads, another independent organization, spent $22 million. The Club for Growth $8 million. The National...
October 20, 2010 @ 2:50 pm | IEF, Leading Indicators |
Well, that’s one way to read it. After dropping in the first hour of trading, China’s stocks climbed,with the Shanghai Composite Index going from a 1% loss in the first hour to a 2% gain at the close. Investors and traders in China have apparently decided that...
October 19, 2010 @ 8:30 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
Add another word to English as spoken on Wall Street: robo signer. These are the folks at banks and mortgage servicing companies who signed hundreds of foreclosure documents a day. Frequently they didn’t read them at all. Even more frequently they didn’t bother to...
October 14, 2010 @ 1:48 pm | Leading Indicators, SYT |
The fall out continues from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s shocking turnaround on the size of this year’s corn crop. On Friday October 8 the USDA completely reversed its optimistic September 30 projection of corn production for the year and slashed its estimate...
October 13, 2010 @ 8:30 am | IEF, Leading Indicators |
Solid. I’d say Intel’s (INTC) third quarter earnings report, released after the market close yesterday, October 12, is more likely to be greeted with a sigh of relief than a gasp of pleased surprise. Earnings for the third quarter came to 52 cents a share. That’s 2...
October 12, 2010 @ 1:17 pm | Leading Indicators, SYT |
It looks like the U.S. Department of Agriculture has been completely wrong-footed by the U.S. corn crop. And that has sent agriculture stocks soaring today, October 8. Just a few months ago the USDA was projecting a record crop. Just a couple of weeks ago on September...
October 12, 2010 @ 8:30 am | BMY, Leading Indicators |
Nobody can accuse these companies of thinking short-term. Along with its third quarter earnings report on October 7 PepsiCo (PEP) announced that it was creating a new Global Nutrition Group “to deliver breakthrough innovation in the areas of fruits and vegetables,...
October 8, 2010 @ 8:30 am | CHK, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
It looks like the biggest winner from the boon in natural gas production from shale formations in the United States will be the U.S. onshore oil industry. Thanks to new techniques pioneered in the late 1970s to extract natural gas from tight shale formations from...
September 23, 2010 @ 4:45 pm | ABT, Buy |
At current prices I think you’re getting two of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) most interesting growth opportunities at a deep discount. Abbott is a good mainstream pharmaceutical company. Abbott’s blockbuster drugs include Humira (for rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis:...
September 9, 2010 @ 10:30 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
Exactly how well capitalized is Citigroup (C)? That’s a question that the Financial Times raised on September 7. The answer, the paper reported, depends on not so much on who’s counting the beans, but on who’s deciding what beans count. At issue is something...
August 31, 2010 @ 12:46 pm | COF, Leading Indicators |
You’ve got to give China’s most recent effort to increase the capital of China’s largest banks big points for chutzpah. That’s not exactly an endorsement for these banks as investments, however. Or of the soundness of China’s troubled banking system. On August 24...
July 20, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, CHK |
We’re just a little bit more than a week into earnings season and already some themes have started to emerge from the numbers. Nothing definite. Call them “tendencies.” But I’m finding connections among the results—and the investor reaction to the results that will be...
July 13, 2010 @ 2:21 pm | AAPL, Leading Indicators |
Well, actually on two blips. The first is the blip—cost to investors about $6.3 billion on a $6.93 a share drop in Apple (AAPL) shares on July 13—created by research from Consumer Reports that argues that the iPhone4 dropped call issues are the result of a hardware...
July 9, 2010 @ 11:49 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
Every analyst on—and many off (including yours truly)—Wall Street is trying to put numbers to the results of the Euro Zone’s bank stress test. In recent days we’ve moved from opinions on which country’s banks will be hit hardest (See my post of yesterday, July 8,...
June 14, 2010 @ 7:37 pm | AMZN, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
Psst! Mister. You wanna buy some cloud? Cloud computing that is. It is the wave of the future in the delivery of everything from computer software to media products to computer services. Market researcher The 451 Group estimates that revenue for infrastructure as a...
June 11, 2010 @ 8:30 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
If the bull market that ended in 2000 the bear market that began in 2000, the bull market that began in 2003, the bear market that began in 2007, and the possible bull market that began in 2009 and that may or may not have ended in 2010 teach investors anything, it’s...
June 3, 2010 @ 9:42 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
Have I got a China indicator for you. Like a lot of investors I think the selloff in Chinese stocks marks a buying opportunity—sometime in 2010. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 22% in 2010 and the market is deep into bear market territory. But that doesn’t mean...